Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-15

2026-08-15

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
35picks
Matt Olsontop pick · 25%
Final results
ELEVATED3 of 16 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS2 of 5 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.3.
AROUND SLATE4 of 15 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
FAVORITES1 of 10 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS0 home runs allowed across 3 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 3 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN4 home runs allowed across 2 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 1 — which is what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

CWS @ DET1:10 PMComerica Parkpitcher-friendly park84°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.4% carry
CF8 mph
Temp84°F
Humidity52%
Wind8 mph
Pressure998 mb
Air density1.143 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Spencer TorkelsonDETT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.6% over normal 1.24x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-2.8% over normal 0.90x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Troy Melton
lineup expected to homer 1.08 times vs 1.27 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
STL @ CHC2:20 PMWrigley Fieldneutral park79°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +2.8% carry
CF2 mph
Temp79°F
Humidity88%
Wind2 mph
Pressure995 mb
Air density1.146 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHCT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +4.2% over normal 1.25x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Blaze JordanSTLT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +3.4% over normal 1.58x · SLEEPERS
−recent fly-ball rate, +season barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
NYY @ TOR3:07 PMRogers Centreneutral park72°F, wind 11 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.7% carry
CF11 mph
Temp72°F
Humidity69%
Wind11 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Air density1.185 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Ryan McMahonNYYT3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.0% over normal 1.17x · ATS
−SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-2.8% over normal 0.88x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
COL @ SF4:05 PMOracle Parkpitcher-friendly park58°F, wind 11 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.0% carry
CF11 mph
Temp58°F
Humidity93%
Wind11 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Air density1.225 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryce EldridgeSFT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.7% over normal 1.26x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, −park factor
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Logan Webb
lineup expected to homer 0.54 times vs 0.66 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
WSH @ NYM4:10 PMCiti Fieldneutral park75°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.6% carry
CF6 mph
Temp75°F
Humidity56%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1020 mb
Air density1.189 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Andrés ChaparroWSHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +6.6% over normal 1.71x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Brett BatyNYMT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.4% over normal 1.32x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Brady HouseWSHT3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.7% over normal 1.24x · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
BAL @ TB6:10 PMTropicana Fieldneutral park80°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.0% carry
CF4 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity87%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Air density1.169 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Tyler O'NeillBALT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.1% over normal 1.45x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Pete AlonsoBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +1.0% over normal 1.05x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Kyle Bradish
lineup expected to homer 0.81 times vs 1.01 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
MIA @ CIN6:40 PMGreat American Ball Parkhitter-friendly park81°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.3% carry
CF2 mph
Temp81°F
Humidity78%
Wind2 mph
Pressure998 mb
Air density1.146 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Heriberto HernándezMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +6.4% over normal 1.52x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jakob MarseeMIAT4 · The Field
we say 13% +7.8% over normal 2.40x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, +lineup slot
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Xavier EdwardsMIAT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +3.7% over normal 1.67x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −career hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Griffin ConineMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +2.9% over normal 1.16x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Brady Singer
lineup expected to homer 0.79 times vs 0.57 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
2 HR allowed
PHI @ MIN7:10 PMTarget Fieldhitter-friendly park74°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.1% carry
CF4 mph
Temp74°F
Humidity92%
Wind4 mph
Pressure984 mb
Air density1.144 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

J.T. RealmutoPHIT3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.9% over normal 1.26x · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Byron BuxtonMINT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-4.1% over normal 0.84x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, −SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
SEA @ HOU7:10 PMDaikin Parkhitter-friendly park79°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.8% carry
CF6 mph
Temp79°F
Humidity82%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Air density1.172 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Taylor TrammellHOUT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.1% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.8% over normal 1.03x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
SD @ CLE7:10 PMProgressive Fieldpitcher-friendly park74°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.6% carry
CF4 mph
Temp74°F
Humidity83%
Wind4 mph
Pressure993 mb
Air density1.158 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT3 · Solid
we say 14% +1.4% over normal 1.11x · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
BOS @ PIT7:15 PMPNC Parkpitcher-friendly park74°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.7% carry
CF3 mph
Temp74°F
Humidity82%
Wind3 mph
Pressure991 mb
Air density1.154 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Wilyer AbreuBOST2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.8% over normal 1.26x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
MIL @ LAD7:15 PMUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadiumhitter-friendly park66°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.3% carry
CF2 mph
Temp66°F
Humidity93%
Wind2 mph
Pressure998 mb
Air density1.181 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

William ContrerasMILT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.3% over normal 1.50x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Christian YelichMILT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.3% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED
+park factor, −recent fly-ball rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Andrew VaughnMILT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.5% over normal 1.58x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Shohei OhtaniLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-0.3% over normal 0.99x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jake BauersMILT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +2.6% over normal 1.14x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Justin Wrobleski
lineup expected to homer 1.02 times vs 0.78 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
2 HR allowed
AZ @ ATL7:15 PMTruist Parkhitter-friendly park82°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.8% carry
CF4 mph
Temp82°F
Humidity63%
Wind4 mph
Pressure982 mb
Air density1.128 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Corbin CarrollAZT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.8% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Michael Harris IIATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.1% over normal 1.21x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 18% +6.5% over normal 1.58x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Lars NootbaarAZT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +4.0% over normal 1.98x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +1.2% over normal 1.05x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
7 home runs in his last 15 games
no
KC @ LAA9:38 PMAngel Stadiumhitter-friendly park68°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.6% carry
CF2 mph
Temp68°F
Humidity86%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Air density1.194 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jac CaglianoneKCT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +5.3% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +park factor
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Michael MasseyKCT3 · Solid
we say 15% +4.4% over normal 1.40x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +pull tendency
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
TEX @ ATH9:40 PMSutter Health Parkhitter-friendly park61°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT -2.1% carry
CF5 mph
Temp61°F
Humidity76%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1016 mb
Air density1.218 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Brandon NimmoTEXT4 · The Field
we say 13% +2.7% over normal 1.25x · ATS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data