Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-15

2026-08-15

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

Pass shown: confirmed, morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.

← 2026-08-14 all nights 2026-08-16 →

ELEVATED

Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CHC	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.169	1.25x	+SP strikeout rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Jac Caglianone	KC	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.150	1.35x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
Heriberto Hernández	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.123	1.52x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Corbin Carroll	AZ	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.140	1.34x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	no
Michael Harris II	ATL	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.151	1.21x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Wilyer Abreu	BOS	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.145	1.26x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Spencer Torkelson	DET	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.147	1.24x	+career hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate	no
Bryce Eldridge	SF	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.145	1.26x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	no
Austin Riley	ATL	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.111	1.58x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Tyler O'Neill	BAL	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.112	1.45x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
William Contreras	MIL	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.106	1.50x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
Andrés Chaparro	WSH	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.093	1.71x	+recent hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Michael Massey	KC	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.109	1.40x	+park factor, +pull tendency	no
Brett Baty	NYM	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.108	1.32x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Christian Yelich	MIL	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.108	1.30x	+park factor, −recent fly-ball rate	no
Taylor Trammell	HOU	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.109	1.29x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no

Section that night: 3 home runs against 2.03 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

SLEEPERS

Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Jakob Marsee	MIA	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.056	2.40x	+park factor, +lineup slot	HOME RUN
Andrew Vaughn	MIL	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.078	1.58x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Xavier Edwards	MIA	T5 · Longshot	0.092	0.055	1.67x	+park factor, −career hard-hit rate	no
Blaze Jordan	STL	T5 · Longshot	0.092	0.058	1.58x	−recent fly-ball rate, +season barrel rate	HOME RUN
Lars Nootbaar	AZ	T5 · Longshot	0.081	0.041	1.98x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no

Section that night: 2 home runs against 0.29 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

AROUND SLATE

One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CHC	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.169	1.25x	+SP strikeout rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Jac Caglianone	KC	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.150	1.35x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
Wilyer Abreu	BOS	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.145	1.26x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Spencer Torkelson	DET	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.147	1.24x	+career hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate	no
Bryce Eldridge	SF	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.145	1.26x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	no
Austin Riley	ATL	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.111	1.58x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Tyler O'Neill	BAL	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.112	1.45x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
William Contreras	MIL	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.106	1.50x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.129	1.11x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no
J.T. Realmuto	PHI	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.112	1.26x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
Ryan McMahon	NYY	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.120	1.17x	−SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Taylor Trammell	HOU	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.109	1.29x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Brady House	WSH	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.113	1.24x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Brandon Nimmo	TEX	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.108	1.25x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Jakob Marsee	MIA	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.056	2.40x	+park factor, +lineup slot	HOME RUN

Section that night: 4 home runs against 1.83 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

FAVORITES

Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Matt Olson	ATL	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.243	1.05x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
Yordan Alvarez	HOU	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.233	1.03x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Munetaka Murakami	CWS	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.269	0.90x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
Shohei Ohtani	LAD	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.231	0.99x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Byron Buxton	MIN	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.251	0.84x	+career barrel rate, −SP strikeout rate	no
Pete Alonso	BAL	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.200	1.05x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Jake Bauers	MIL	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.185	1.14x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Griffin Conine	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.181	1.16x	+park factor, +career hard-hit rate	no
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CHC	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.169	1.25x	+SP strikeout rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Ben Rice	NYY	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.239	0.88x	+career hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate	no

Section that night: 1 home run against 2.20 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

MOUND SUPPRESS

The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.

Pitcher	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Troy Melton	T1 · Slugger	1.076	1.272	0.85x	strong suppression spot	0 HR allowed
Kyle Bradish	T1 · Slugger	0.810	1.012	0.80x	strong suppression spot	0 HR allowed
Logan Webb	T1 · Slugger	0.539	0.660	0.82x	strong suppression spot	0 HR allowed

Section that night: 0 home runs against 2.94 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

MOUND VULN

The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.

Pitcher	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Justin Wrobleski		T1 · Slugger	1.022	0.784	1.30x	vulnerable spot — hitters' night	2 HR allowed
Brady Singer		T1 · Slugger	0.792	0.566	1.40x	vulnerable spot — hitters' night	2 HR allowed

Section that night: 4 home runs against 1.35 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data