Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-07-12

2026-07-12

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
39picks
Shohei Ohtanitop pick · 29%
Final results
ELEVATED2 of 13 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS1 of 8 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.5.
AROUND SLATE3 of 13 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
FAVORITES1 of 12 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 3.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

MIL @ PIT12:15 PMPNC Parkpitcher-friendly park81°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +0.4% carry
CF3 mph
Temp81°F
Humidity79%
Wind3 mph
Pressure994 mb
Air density1.142 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Henry DavisPITT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.0% over normal 1.28x · ELEVATED · ATS
−park factor, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Esmerlyn ValdezPITT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-4.5% over normal 0.82x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
no
NYY @ WSH1:35 PMNationals Parkneutral park83°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.3% carry
CF8 mph
Temp83°F
Humidity71%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1020 mb
Air density1.167 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Dylan CrewsWSHT3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.6% over normal 1.23x · ATS
+season hard-hit rate, +season fly-ball rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-3.9% over normal 0.84x · FAVORITES
−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
no
KC @ BAL1:35 PMOriole Park at Camden Yardshitter-friendly park82°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.2% carry
CF8 mph
Temp82°F
Humidity74%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1020 mb
Air density1.170 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jac CaglianoneKCT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +6.2% over normal 1.48x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Tyler O'NeillBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.1% over normal 1.21x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Adley RutschmanBALT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.0% over normal 1.40x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +season fly-ball rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Leody TaverasBALT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.3% over normal 1.70x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −lineup slot
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Pete AlonsoBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-0.8% over normal 0.96x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
SEA @ TB1:40 PMTropicana Fieldneutral park94°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.0% carry
CF7 mph
Temp94°F
Humidity52%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1020 mb
Air density1.143 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Hunter FeducciaTBT4 · The Field
we say 12% +5.6% over normal 1.91x · SLEEPERS
+recent barrel rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Jonathan ArandaTBT3 · Solid
we say 16% +2.0% over normal 1.14x · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +lineup slot
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-2.1% over normal 0.92x · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
9 home runs in his last 15 games
no
BOS @ NYM1:40 PMCiti Fieldneutral park85°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +1.2% carry
CF4 mph
Temp85°F
Humidity47%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1021 mb
Air density1.167 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Wilyer AbreuBOST2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +6.5% over normal 1.56x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Ceddanne RafaelaBOST4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.0% over normal 1.41x · SLEEPERS
+SP career HR rate, +SP career barrels allowed
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Juan SotoNYMT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-1.8% over normal 0.93x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +SP fly balls allowed
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CLE @ MIA1:40 PMloanDepot parkpitcher-friendly park89°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.6% carry
CF6 mph
Temp89°F
Humidity80%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1021 mb
Air density1.152 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle StowersMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +5.3% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Kahlil WatsonCLET3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.8% over normal 1.52x · ELEVATED
+SP strikeout rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Patrick BaileyCLET4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.9% over normal 1.50x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
PHI @ DET1:40 PMComerica Parkpitcher-friendly park82°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.7% carry
CF9 mph
Temp82°F
Humidity53%
Wind9 mph
Pressure1002 mb
Air density1.151 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

J.T. RealmutoPHIT4 · The Field
we say 12% +-0.1% over normal 0.99x · ATS
−SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-4.5% over normal 0.84x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CHC @ CIN1:40 PMGreat American Ball Parkhitter-friendly park82°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.1% carry
CF8 mph
Temp82°F
Humidity78%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1002 mb
Air density1.148 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Elly De La CruzCINT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.7% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Alex BregmanCHCT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.0% over normal 1.56x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
LAA @ MIN2:10 PMTarget Fieldhitter-friendly park87°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +2.7% carry
CF10 mph
Temp87°F
Humidity66%
Wind10 mph
Pressure991 mb
Air density1.124 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Logan O'HoppeLAAT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.6% over normal 1.65x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, −lineup slot
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
ATH @ CWS2:10 PMRate Fieldneutral park80°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +0.4% carry
CF7 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity80%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1001 mb
Air density1.152 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Randal GrichukCWST3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.7% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Munetaka MurakamiCWST1 · Slugger
we say 25% +-2.7% over normal 0.90x · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Colson MontgomeryCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-3.4% over normal 0.88x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
ATL @ STL2:15 PMBusch Stadiumpitcher-friendly park85°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.3% carry
CF8 mph
Temp85°F
Humidity70%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1003 mb
Air density1.143 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Austin RileyATLT4 · The Field
we say 13% +3.1% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, −park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Lars NootbaarSTLT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.6% over normal 1.78x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−park factor, +recent barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
HOU @ TEX2:35 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park92°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.7% carry
CF4 mph
Temp92°F
Humidity49%
Wind4 mph
Pressure998 mb
Air density1.122 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Joc PedersonTEXT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +4.0% over normal 1.24x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jake BurgerTEXT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +3.3% over normal 1.21x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Brandon NimmoTEXT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.5% over normal 1.47x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.8% over normal 0.97x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
COL @ SF4:05 PMOracle Parkpitcher-friendly park76°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.1% carry
CF3 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity57%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1013 mb
Air density1.178 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryce EldridgeSFT3 · Solid
we say 18% +4.8% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, −park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
TOR @ SD4:10 PMPetco Parkneutral park77°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.4% carry
CF9 mph
Temp77°F
Humidity74%
Wind9 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Air density1.172 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.4% over normal 1.61x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Kazuma OkamotoTORT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-0.0% over normal 1.00x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
AZ @ LAD4:10 PMUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadiumhitter-friendly park80°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.1% carry
CF7 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity60%
Wind7 mph
Pressure994 mb
Air density1.146 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Andy PagesLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.4% over normal 1.23x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle TuckerLADT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.3% over normal 1.58x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Ryan WaldschmidtAZT4 · The Field
we say 12% +7.1% over normal 2.52x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −lineup slot
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Shohei OhtaniLADT1 · Slugger
we say 29% +2.0% over normal 1.08x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data