Sparrow Data
2026-07-12
The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.
Pass shown: confirmed, morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.
← 2026-07-11 all nights 2026-07-16 →
ELEVATED
Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joc Pederson | TEX | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.170 | 1.24x | +SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Kyle Stowers | MIA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.150 | 1.35x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | not yet graded |
| Jake Burger | TEX | T2 · Power Bat | 0.191 | 0.158 | 1.21x | +career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| Jac Caglianone | KC | T2 · Power Bat | 0.191 | 0.129 | 1.48x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Tyler O'Neill | BAL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.151 | 1.21x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | not yet graded |
| Wilyer Abreu | BOS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.117 | 1.56x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Andy Pages | LAD | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.148 | 1.23x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | no |
| Bryce Eldridge | SF | T3 · Solid | 0.176 | 0.129 | 1.37x | +career barrel rate, −park factor | no |
| Elly De La Cruz | CIN | T3 · Solid | 0.163 | 0.126 | 1.29x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Randal Grichuk | CWS | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.106 | 1.35x | +career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate | not yet graded |
| Brandon Nimmo | TEX | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.097 | 1.47x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Kyle Tucker | LAD | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.090 | 1.58x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Alex Bregman | CHC | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.090 | 1.56x | +park factor, +pull tendency | HOME RUN |
| Adley Rutschman | BAL | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.100 | 1.40x | +park factor, +season fly-ball rate | not yet graded |
| Henry Davis | PIT | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.110 | 1.28x | −park factor, +career hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| Kahlil Watson | CLE | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.092 | 1.52x | +SP strikeout rate, +park factor | no |
| Austin Riley | ATL | T4 · The Field | 0.134 | 0.103 | 1.30x | +career barrel rate, −park factor | no |
Section that night: 2 home runs against 1.56 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
SLEEPERS
Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.089 | 1.61x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Patrick Bailey | CLE | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.079 | 1.50x | +park factor, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| Logan O'Hoppe | LAA | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.071 | 1.65x | +career barrel rate, −lineup slot | no |
| Hunter Feduccia | TB | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.061 | 1.91x | +recent barrel rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | AZ | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.047 | 2.52x | +park factor, −lineup slot | no |
| Lars Nootbaar | STL | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.059 | 1.78x | −park factor, +recent barrel rate | no |
| Leody Taveras | BAL | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.062 | 1.70x | +park factor, −lineup slot | HOME RUN |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | BOS | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.074 | 1.41x | +SP career HR rate, +SP career barrels allowed | no |
Section that night: 1 home run against 0.54 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
AROUND SLATE
One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Stowers | MIA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.150 | 1.35x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | not yet graded |
| Jac Caglianone | KC | T2 · Power Bat | 0.191 | 0.129 | 1.48x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Wilyer Abreu | BOS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.117 | 1.56x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Bryce Eldridge | SF | T3 · Solid | 0.176 | 0.129 | 1.37x | +career barrel rate, −park factor | no |
| Jonathan Aranda | TB | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.139 | 1.14x | +career hard-hit rate, +lineup slot | HOME RUN |
| Randal Grichuk | CWS | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.106 | 1.35x | +career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate | not yet graded |
| Brandon Nimmo | TEX | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.097 | 1.47x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Kyle Tucker | LAD | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.090 | 1.58x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.089 | 1.61x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Alex Bregman | CHC | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.090 | 1.56x | +park factor, +pull tendency | HOME RUN |
| Henry Davis | PIT | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.110 | 1.28x | −park factor, +career hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| Dylan Crews | WSH | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.114 | 1.23x | +season hard-hit rate, +season fly-ball rate | no |
| J.T. Realmuto | PHI | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.118 | 0.99x | −SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Logan O'Hoppe | LAA | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.071 | 1.65x | +career barrel rate, −lineup slot | no |
| Lars Nootbaar | STL | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.059 | 1.78x | −park factor, +recent barrel rate | no |
Section that night: 3 home runs against 1.35 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
FAVORITES
Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | LAD | T1 · Slugger | 0.286 | 0.266 | 1.08x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | HOME RUN |
| Munetaka Murakami | CWS | T1 · Slugger | 0.255 | 0.282 | 0.90x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Juan Soto | NYM | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.259 | 0.93x | +career barrel rate, +SP fly balls allowed | no |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.249 | 0.97x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Junior Caminero | TB | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.262 | 0.92x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Colson Montgomery | CWS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.275 | 0.88x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | T2 · Power Bat | 0.231 | 0.276 | 0.84x | −park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Joc Pederson | TEX | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.170 | 1.24x | +SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Kazuma Okamoto | TOR | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.211 | 1.00x | +SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Ben Rice | NYY | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.249 | 0.84x | −SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Pete Alonso | BAL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.211 | 0.96x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | PIT | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.248 | 0.82x | −park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
Section that night: 1 home run against 2.96 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.