Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-09-20

2026-09-20

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
33picks
Cal Raleightop pick · 24%
Final results
ELEVATED4 of 14 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS0 of 4 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.3.
AROUND SLATE3 of 14 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
FAVORITES3 of 10 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS2 home runs allowed across 3 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 3 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN1 home runs allowed across 1 start. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

PHI @ NYM1:10 PMCiti Fieldneutral park68°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.1% carry
CF7 mph
Temp68°F
Humidity91%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1013 mb
Rain chance23%
Air density1.192 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm68°86% rh8mph59% rain
2pm67°88% rh7mph68% rain
3pm67°88% rh7mph51% rain
4pm68°88% rh7mph36% rain
5pm68°91% rh7mph23% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

J.T. RealmutoPHIT4 · The Field
we say 13% +3.6% over normal 1.36x · ATS
+SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.0% over normal 1.00x · FAVORITES
+season hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Cristopher Sánchez
lineup expected to homer 1.01 times vs 1.24 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
KC @ PIT1:35 PMPNC Parkpitcher-friendly park73°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.5% carry
CF9 mph
Temp73°F
Humidity89%
Wind9 mph
Pressure986 mb
Rain chance39%
Air density1.150 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm74°85% rh7mph31% rain
2pm74°83% rh7mph28% rain
3pm75°83% rh9mph39% rain
4pm74°86% rh6mph35% rain
5pm73°89% rh9mph39% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jac CaglianoneKCT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +5.4% over normal 1.40x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Bryan ReynoldsPITT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.0% over normal 1.46x · ELEVATED
+recent barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
BOS @ TB1:40 PMTropicana Fieldneutral park87°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.1% carry
CF3 mph
Temp87°F
Humidity57%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Rain chance15%
Air density1.146 kg/m³

Roof CLOSED — the forecast below does not reach the field.

1pm85°69% rh5mph3% rain
2pm86°65% rh4mph4% rain
3pm88°59% rh4mph6% rain
4pm88°57% rh4mph12% rain
5pm87°57% rh3mph15% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Roman AnthonyBOST3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.8% over normal 1.50x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Patrick Sandoval
lineup expected to homer 0.77 times vs 0.98 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
1 HR allowed
ATH @ CLE1:40 PMProgressive Fieldpitcher-friendly park70°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.4% carry
CF9 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity85%
Wind9 mph
Pressure990 mb
Rain chance14%
Air density1.162 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm70°85% rh6mph46% rain
2pm70°85% rh6mph35% rain
3pm71°84% rh7mph30% rain
4pm70°81% rh8mph20% rain
5pm70°85% rh9mph14% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

José RamírezCLET3 · Solid
we say 16% +6.1% over normal 1.62x · ELEVATED · ATS
+pull tendency, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Angel GenaoCLET4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.2% over normal 1.47x · SLEEPERS
−recent fly-ball rate, +season hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Gavin Williams
lineup expected to homer 0.88 times vs 1.10 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
CHC @ CIN1:40 PMGreat American Ball Parkhitter-friendly park93°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.7% carry
CF6 mph
Temp93°F
Humidity35%
Wind6 mph
Pressure994 mb
Rain chance6%
Air density1.118 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm88°48% rh7mph1% rain
2pm92°39% rh7mph1% rain
3pm93°36% rh8mph2% rain
4pm93°35% rh7mph2% rain
5pm93°35% rh6mph6% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Michael ConfortoCHCT3 · Solid
we say 18% +5.4% over normal 1.44x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHCT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.8% over normal 1.08x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Seiya SuzukiCHCT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +2.0% over normal 1.11x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
ATL @ HOU2:10 PMDaikin Parkhitter-friendly park91°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.8% carry
CF10 mph
Temp91°F
Humidity53%
Wind10 mph
Pressure1009 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density1.137 kg/m³

Roof CLOSED — the forecast below does not reach the field.

2pm93°53% rh0mph2% rain
3pm96°44% rh1mph1% rain
4pm94°54% rh11mph4% rain
5pm93°50% rh10mph3% rain
6pm91°53% rh10mph2% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Mike YastrzemskiATLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.6% over normal 1.49x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +0.2% over normal 1.01x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-1.8% over normal 0.92x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
DET @ CWS2:10 PMRate Fieldneutral park64°F, wind 20 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.4% carry
CF20 mph
Temp64°F
Humidity93%
Wind20 mph
Pressure994 mb
Rain chance40%
Air density1.182 kg/m³

Open-air park.

2pm66°96% rh8mph71% rain
3pm65°96% rh11mph78% rain
4pm65°96% rh13mph66% rain
5pm65°95% rh17mph49% rain
6pm64°93% rh20mph40% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle TeelCWST3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.6% over normal 1.29x · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-1.4% over normal 0.94x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
WSH @ STL2:15 PMBusch Stadiumpitcher-friendly park92°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +2.4% carry
CF3 mph
Temp92°F
Humidity35%
Wind3 mph
Pressure992 mb
Rain chance4%
Air density1.123 kg/m³

Open-air park.

2pm91°39% rh3mph5% rain
3pm92°36% rh3mph5% rain
4pm93°35% rh2mph4% rain
5pm92°35% rh4mph3% rain
6pm92°35% rh3mph4% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Andrés ChaparroWSHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.0% over normal 1.23x · ATS
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
James WoodWSHT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-1.3% over normal 0.94x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
TOR @ TEX2:35 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park96°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.8% carry
CF6 mph
Temp96°F
Humidity39%
Wind6 mph
Pressure989 mb
Rain chance13%
Air density1.107 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

2pm94°43% rh7mph0% rain
3pm96°41% rh5mph4% rain
4pm97°39% rh5mph6% rain
5pm96°38% rh6mph10% rain
6pm96°39% rh6mph13% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.1% over normal 1.46x · ATS
+career barrel rate, −SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
SEA @ COL3:10 PMCoors Fieldneutral park69°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.7% carry
CF8 mph
Temp69°F
Humidity39%
Wind8 mph
Pressure846 mb
Rain chance4%
Air density0.999 kg/m³

Open-air park.

3pm76°32% rh7mph2% rain
4pm76°29% rh7mph1% rain
5pm76°27% rh7mph2% rain
6pm73°34% rh12mph2% rain
7pm69°39% rh8mph4% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Cal RaleighSEAT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +6.0% over normal 1.33x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Connor NorbyCOLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.9% over normal 1.71x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Ezequiel TovarCOLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.3% over normal 1.62x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Josh NaylorSEAT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.3% over normal 1.71x · SLEEPERS
+SP career barrels allowed, −recent fly-ball rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Hunter GoodmanCOLT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +0.4% over normal 1.02x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
MIN @ LAA4:07 PMAngel Stadiumhitter-friendly park70°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.7% carry
CF5 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity77%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1007 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.184 kg/m³

Open-air park.

4pm77°59% rh9mph0% rain
5pm75°64% rh8mph0% rain
6pm73°71% rh7mph0% rain
7pm71°75% rh6mph0% rain
8pm70°77% rh5mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Royce LewisMINT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.6% over normal 1.41x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +season fly-ball rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Austin MartinMINT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.8% over normal 1.53x · SLEEPERS
+lineup slot, −recent fly-ball rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
MIA @ SD4:10 PMPetco Parkneutral park69°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.5% carry
CF4 mph
Temp69°F
Humidity79%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.192 kg/m³

Open-air park.

4pm73°71% rh8mph0% rain
5pm72°72% rh7mph0% rain
6pm70°80% rh6mph0% rain
7pm69°80% rh4mph0% rain
8pm69°79% rh3mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle StowersMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.2% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
SF @ LAD4:10 PMUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadiumhitter-friendly park68°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.3% carry
CF5 mph
Temp68°F
Humidity79%
Wind5 mph
Pressure993 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.171 kg/m³

Open-air park.

4pm77°63% rh9mph0% rain
5pm74°69% rh9mph0% rain
6pm71°73% rh7mph0% rain
7pm69°78% rh5mph0% rain
8pm68°79% rh5mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Max MuncyLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +4.0% over normal 1.23x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Teoscar HernándezLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +5.9% over normal 1.44x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Freddie FreemanLADT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.2% over normal 1.49x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Kyle TuckerLADT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.0% over normal 1.33x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Tommy EdmanLADT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.2% over normal 1.58x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Matt Wilkinson
lineup expected to homer 1.33 times vs 1.04 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
NYY @ AZ4:10 PMChase Fieldpitcher-friendly park89°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.1% carry
CF5 mph
Temp89°F
Humidity19%
Wind5 mph
Pressure970 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.104 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

4pm101°14% rh6mph0% rain
5pm100°14% rh5mph0% rain
6pm98°15% rh3mph0% rain
7pm93°16% rh5mph1% rain
8pm89°19% rh5mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Lars NootbaarAZT4 · The Field
we say 12% +5.6% over normal 1.84x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−park factor, +recent barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
MIL @ BAL7:20 PMOriole Park at Camden Yardshitter-friendly park75°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.0% carry
CF2 mph
Temp75°F
Humidity85%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1013 mb
Rain chance10%
Air density1.177 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm77°72% rh6mph31% rain
8pm76°77% rh5mph30% rain
9pm76°80% rh2mph20% rain
10pm75°84% rh1mph15% rain
11pm75°85% rh2mph10% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

William ContrerasMILT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.4% over normal 1.38x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data