Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-21

2026-08-21

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
37picks
Munetaka Murakamitop pick · 25%
Final results
ELEVATED2 of 13 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
SLEEPERS0 of 6 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.4.
AROUND SLATE3 of 16 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
FAVORITES3 of 11 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS4 home runs allowed across 4 starts. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.
MOUND VULN2 home runs allowed across 2 starts. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

CHC @ SEA10:10 PMT-Mobile Parkneutral park63°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.7% carry
CF6 mph
Temp63°F
Humidity85%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Air density1.210 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

12am63°85% rh5mph0% rain
1am62°89% rh3mph1% rain
2am61°90% rh4mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Julio RodríguezSEAT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.1% over normal 1.21x · ELEVATED
+career hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Alex BregmanCHCT4 · The Field
we say 13% +3.5% over normal 1.36x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +pull tendency
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHCT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +2.3% over normal 1.12x · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
PIT @ LAD10:10 PMUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadiumhitter-friendly park67°F, wind 1 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.4% carry
CF1 mph
Temp67°F
Humidity90%
Wind1 mph
Pressure995 mb
Air density1.176 kg/m³

Open-air park.

12am73°78% rh3mph0% rain
1am72°78% rh2mph0% rain
2am72°74% rh4mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Teoscar HernándezLADT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.1% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle TuckerLADT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.0% over normal 1.27x · ELEVATED
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Nick GonzalesPITT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +3.0% over normal 1.59x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Shohei OhtaniLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-1.0% over normal 0.96x · FAVORITES
−SP career HR rate, +park factor
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
ATL @ MIL4:10 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park70°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.3% carry
CF4 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity93%
Wind4 mph
Pressure991 mb
Air density1.161 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.3% over normal 1.50x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Joey OrtizMILT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +0.7% over normal 1.08x · ATS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-3.8% over normal 0.85x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
STL @ PHI6:40 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park71°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT -0.1% carry
CF4 mph
Temp71°F
Humidity89%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1017 mb
Air density1.191 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Blaze JordanSTLT4 · The Field
we say 12% +5.0% over normal 1.75x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+season barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-2.1% over normal 0.91x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
TOR @ NYY7:05 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park68°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.7% carry
CF2 mph
Temp68°F
Humidity93%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Air density1.199 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +2.5% over normal 1.16x · ATS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.2% over normal 1.01x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Cam Schlittler
lineup expected to homer 0.86 times vs 1.01 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
WSH @ MIA7:10 PMloanDepot parkpitcher-friendly park80°F, wind 1 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.6% carry
CF1 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity83%
Wind1 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Air density1.169 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

José TenaWSHT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.1% over normal 1.33x · ELEVATED
+lineup slot, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Jakob MarseeMIAT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.8% over normal 1.61x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+pull tendency, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
SF @ BOS7:10 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park67°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.5% carry
CF3 mph
Temp67°F
Humidity71%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Air density1.204 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Christian KossSFT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +3.6% over normal 1.81x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+pull tendency, +season barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Rafael DeversSFT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +-0.8% over normal 0.96x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
TB @ BAL7:15 PMOriole Park at Camden Yardshitter-friendly park73°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.0% carry
CF2 mph
Temp73°F
Humidity68%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1016 mb
Air density1.189 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Tyler O'NeillBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +7.4% over normal 1.69x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Gunnar HendersonBALT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.0% over normal 1.23x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-3.4% over normal 0.86x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Pete AlonsoBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +-2.4% over normal 0.89x · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Samuel BasalloBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +0.8% over normal 1.04x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Trevor Rogers
lineup expected to homer 1.14 times vs 1.31 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
NYM @ CWS7:40 PMRate Fieldneutral park70°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.8% carry
CF9 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity84%
Wind9 mph
Pressure991 mb
Air density1.165 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Randal GrichukCWST3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.3% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED
+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
A.J. EwingNYMT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.2% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED
+lineup slot, +season barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jake RogersCWST4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.8% over normal 1.45x · ATS
+career barrel rate, +pull tendency
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Munetaka MurakamiCWST1 · Slugger
we say 25% +-1.8% over normal 0.93x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Sean Burke
lineup expected to homer 0.83 times vs 0.72 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
DET @ KC8:10 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park78°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.8% carry
CF4 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity71%
Wind4 mph
Pressure984 mb
Air density1.137 kg/m³

Open-air park.

12am72°88% rh3mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Vinnie PasquantinoKCT4 · The Field
we say 13% +1.5% over normal 1.12x · ATS
−park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Troy Melton
lineup expected to homer 1.07 times vs 1.24 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
3 HR allowed
Noah Cameron
lineup expected to homer 0.67 times vs 0.77 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
ATH @ HOU8:10 PMDaikin Parkhitter-friendly park81°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.1% carry
CF6 mph
Temp81°F
Humidity81%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Air density1.162 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

12am81°84% rh6mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Lawrence ButlerATHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.3% over normal 1.26x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
LAA @ TEX8:15 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park92°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.5% carry
CF4 mph
Temp92°F
Humidity42%
Wind4 mph
Pressure994 mb
Air density1.121 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

12am92°50% rh5mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Vaughn GrissomLAAT4 · The Field
we say 12% +1.7% over normal 1.17x · ATS
+season hard-hit rate, +pull tendency
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
CLE @ COL8:40 PMCoors Fieldneutral park74°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.2% carry
CF3 mph
Temp74°F
Humidity39%
Wind3 mph
Pressure844 mb
Air density0.989 kg/m³

Open-air park.

12am77°34% rh3mph2% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

José RamírezCLET3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.8% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +pull tendency
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ezequiel TovarCOLT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.8% over normal 1.47x · SLEEPERS
+career barrel rate, +season barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
MIN @ SD9:40 PMPetco Parkneutral park69°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.5% carry
CF3 mph
Temp69°F
Humidity100%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1013 mb
Air density1.190 kg/m³

Open-air park.

12am71°86% rh1mph0% rain
1am70°90% rh2mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Xander BogaertsSDT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.4% over normal 1.39x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Byron BuxtonMINT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-1.5% over normal 0.94x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
CIN @ AZ9:40 PMChase Fieldpitcher-friendly park93°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.1% carry
CF4 mph
Temp93°F
Humidity21%
Wind4 mph
Pressure971 mb
Air density1.098 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

12am97°21% rh5mph1% rain
1am96°24% rh5mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Gabriel MorenoAZT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.2% over normal 1.36x · ELEVATED · ATS
+SP strikeout rate, +lineup slot
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Tim TawaAZT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.8% over normal 1.32x · ELEVATED
+SP strikeout rate, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ryan WaldschmidtAZT4 · The Field
we say 12% +6.0% over normal 2.05x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+season barrel rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Nick Lodolo
lineup expected to homer 1.12 times vs 0.93 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data