Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-07-22

2026-07-22

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
42picks
Kyle Schwarbertop pick · 29%
Final results
ELEVATED1 of 17 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS2 of 5 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.3.
AROUND SLATE1 of 10 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
FAVORITES2 of 10 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 3.
MOUND SUPPRESS2 home runs allowed across 4 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 4 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN1 home runs allowed across 2 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 2 — which is not what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

PIT @ NYY1:05 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park87°F, wind 13 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +7.2% carry
CF13 mph
Temp87°F
Humidity49%
Wind13 mph
Pressure1007 mb
Air density1.145 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Ryan O'HearnPITT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +5.1% over normal 1.38x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +SP fly balls allowed
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Bryan ReynoldsPITT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +6.5% over normal 1.55x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Henry DavisPITT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.1% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +pull tendency
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ryan McMahonNYYT3 · Solid
we say 15% +3.5% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Nick GonzalesPITT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.9% over normal 1.57x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −platoon edge
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Esmerlyn ValdezPITT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +-3.1% over normal 0.89x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.4% over normal 0.98x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
NYM @ MIL2:10 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park72°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.2% carry
CF10 mph
Temp72°F
Humidity51%
Wind10 mph
Pressure996 mb
Air density1.168 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Garrett MitchellMILT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.1% over normal 1.27x · ATS
+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
SF @ KC2:10 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park80°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.3% carry
CF8 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity54%
Wind8 mph
Pressure988 mb
Air density1.140 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryce EldridgeSFT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.5% over normal 1.31x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, −park factor
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Landen Roupp
lineup expected to homer 0.85 times vs 1.11 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
1 HR allowed
WSH @ COL3:10 PMCoors Fieldneutral park93°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +1.8% carry
CF4 mph
Temp93°F
Humidity31%
Wind4 mph
Pressure847 mb
Air density0.955 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Edouard JulienCOLT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +3.5% over normal 1.65x · SLEEPERS
+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ezequiel TovarCOLT4 · The Field
we say 10% +1.7% over normal 1.20x · ATS
+career barrel rate, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Cade Cavalli
lineup expected to homer 0.98 times vs 1.11 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
CIN @ SEA3:40 PMT-Mobile Parkneutral park82°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +3.9% carry
CF6 mph
Temp82°F
Humidity56%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Air density1.163 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Elly De La CruzCINT3 · Solid
we say 16% +2.4% over normal 1.18x · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
ATH @ AZ3:40 PMChase Fieldpitcher-friendly park100°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.2% carry
CF2 mph
Temp100°F
Humidity37%
Wind2 mph
Pressure973 mb
Air density1.081 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Ryan WaldschmidtAZT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +3.7% over normal 1.86x · SLEEPERS
+season barrel rate, −lineup slot
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Jorge BarrosaAZT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.1% over normal 1.45x · ATS
+pull tendency, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Shea LangeliersATHT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.1% over normal 1.05x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
STL @ LAA4:07 PMAngel Stadiumhitter-friendly park85°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.7% carry
CF7 mph
Temp85°F
Humidity61%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1009 mb
Air density1.151 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jimmy CrooksSTLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.6% over normal 1.49x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Blaze JordanSTLT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.3% over normal 1.58x · SLEEPERS
+season barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Lars NootbaarSTLT4 · The Field
we say 12% +6.2% over normal 2.12x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Logan O'HoppeLAAT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.7% over normal 1.59x · SLEEPERS
+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Hunter Dobbins
lineup expected to homer 0.92 times vs 1.07 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
LAD @ PHI6:40 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park85°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +2.5% carry
CF9 mph
Temp85°F
Humidity46%
Wind9 mph
Pressure1009 mb
Air density1.154 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryce HarperPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +4.4% over normal 1.22x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Trea TurnerPHIT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.7% over normal 1.31x · ELEVATED
+SP fly balls allowed, +SP strikeout rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle TuckerLADT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.9% over normal 1.70x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT1 · Slugger
we say 29% +2.0% over normal 1.07x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Shohei OhtaniLADT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +0.1% over normal 1.00x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
MIN @ CLE6:40 PMProgressive Fieldpitcher-friendly park68°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.4% carry
CF6 mph
Temp68°F
Humidity64%
Wind6 mph
Pressure992 mb
Air density1.172 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Daniel SchneemannCLET3 · Solid
we say 16% +6.7% over normal 1.72x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Trevor LarnachMINT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.9% over normal 1.39x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +lineup slot
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Byron BuxtonMINT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-2.7% over normal 0.89x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Bailey Ober
lineup expected to homer 1.12 times vs 0.90 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
TB @ TOR7:07 PMRogers Centreneutral park65°F, wind 11 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.6% carry
CF11 mph
Temp65°F
Humidity56%
Wind11 mph
Pressure1003 mb
Air density1.194 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Hunter FeducciaTBT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.2% over normal 1.38x · ATS
−SP career HR rate, −pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-3.0% over normal 0.88x · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Griffin Jax
lineup expected to homer 0.98 times vs 1.17 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
BAL @ BOS7:10 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park74°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.8% carry
CF7 mph
Temp74°F
Humidity90%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1008 mb
Air density1.172 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jeremiah JacksonBALT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.4% over normal 1.32x · ATS
+SP career HR rate, +park factor
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
SD @ ATL7:15 PMTruist Parkhitter-friendly park87°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.0% carry
CF7 mph
Temp87°F
Humidity66%
Wind7 mph
Pressure978 mb
Air density1.110 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Mike YastrzemskiATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +6.2% over normal 1.52x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.4% over normal 1.51x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CWS @ TEX8:05 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park94°F, wind 12 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.1% carry
CF12 mph
Temp94°F
Humidity51%
Wind12 mph
Pressure990 mb
Air density1.110 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Brandon NimmoTEXT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.7% over normal 1.36x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Colson MontgomeryCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-3.9% over normal 0.86x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-2.0% over normal 0.92x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
MIA @ HOU8:10 PMDaikin Parkhitter-friendly park95°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +1.9% carry
CF4 mph
Temp95°F
Humidity55%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1006 mb
Air density1.125 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle StowersMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +8.5% over normal 1.68x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Heriberto HernándezMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +5.6% over normal 1.45x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jakob MarseeMIAT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.7% over normal 1.58x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −lineup slot
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Isaac ParedesHOUT3 · Solid
we say 14% +1.2% over normal 1.09x · ATS
−SP career HR rate, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.5% over normal 0.98x · FAVORITES
−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Peter Lambert
lineup expected to homer 0.95 times vs 0.75 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
0 HR allowed
DET @ CHC8:10 PMWrigley Fieldneutral park69°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.3% carry
CF5 mph
Temp69°F
Humidity48%
Wind5 mph
Pressure997 mb
Air density1.177 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Riley GreeneDETT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +5.5% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kevin McGonigleDETT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.3% over normal 1.44x · ELEVATED
+SP strikeout rate, +lineup slot
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data