Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-07-22

2026-07-22

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

Pass shown: confirmed, morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.

← 2026-07-21 all nights 2026-07-23 →

ELEVATED

Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Bryce Harper	PHI	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.197	1.22x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
Kyle Stowers	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.125	1.68x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
Riley Greene	DET	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.156	1.35x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Bryce Eldridge	SF	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.143	1.31x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	no
Mike Yastrzemski	ATL	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.120	1.52x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Ryan O'Hearn	PIT	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.132	1.38x	+park factor, +SP fly balls allowed	no
Bryan Reynolds	PIT	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.118	1.55x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Heriberto Hernández	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.126	1.45x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
Trea Turner	PHI	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.122	1.31x	+SP fly balls allowed, +SP strikeout rate	no
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.106	1.51x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
Henry Davis	PIT	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.118	1.35x	+park factor, +pull tendency	no
Daniel Schneemann	CLE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.093	1.72x	+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate	no
Ryan McMahon	NYY	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.117	1.30x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Brandon Nimmo	TEX	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.103	1.36x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Trevor Larnach	MIN	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.101	1.39x	+park factor, +lineup slot	HOME RUN
Jimmy Crooks	STL	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.094	1.49x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Kevin McGonigle	DET	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.098	1.44x	+SP strikeout rate, +lineup slot	no

Section that night: 1 home run against 2.07 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

SLEEPERS

Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Kyle Tucker	LAD	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.084	1.70x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Blaze Jordan	STL	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.074	1.58x	+season barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
Lars Nootbaar	STL	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.055	2.12x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	not yet graded
Logan O'Hoppe	LAA	T4 · The Field	0.100	0.063	1.59x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	not yet graded
Jakob Marsee	MIA	T4 · The Field	0.100	0.064	1.58x	+park factor, −lineup slot	not yet graded
Edouard Julien	COL	T5 · Longshot	0.089	0.054	1.65x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	no
Nick Gonzales	PIT	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.051	1.57x	+park factor, −platoon edge	HOME RUN
Ryan Waldschmidt	AZ	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.043	1.86x	+season barrel rate, −lineup slot	HOME RUN

Section that night: 2 home runs against 0.31 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

AROUND SLATE

One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Riley Greene	DET	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.156	1.35x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Bryce Eldridge	SF	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.143	1.31x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	no
Mike Yastrzemski	ATL	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.120	1.52x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Bryan Reynolds	PIT	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.118	1.55x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Elly De La Cruz	CIN	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.138	1.18x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	no
Daniel Schneemann	CLE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.093	1.72x	+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate	no
Kyle Tucker	LAD	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.084	1.70x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Garrett Mitchell	MIL	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.112	1.27x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
Brandon Nimmo	TEX	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.103	1.36x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Jeremiah Jackson	BAL	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.106	1.32x	+SP career HR rate, +park factor	not yet graded
Isaac Paredes	HOU	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.129	1.09x	−SP career HR rate, +SP strikeout rate	HOME RUN
Lars Nootbaar	STL	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.055	2.12x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	not yet graded
Ezequiel Tovar	COL	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.087	1.20x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	not yet graded
Jorge Barrosa	AZ	T4 · The Field	0.100	0.069	1.45x	+pull tendency, +park factor	not yet graded
Hunter Feduccia	TB	T5 · Longshot	0.081	0.059	1.38x	−SP career HR rate, −pull tendency	not yet graded

Section that night: 1 home run against 1.20 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

FAVORITES

Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Kyle Schwarber	PHI	T1 · Slugger	0.291	0.271	1.07x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
Shohei Ohtani	LAD	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.254	1.00x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Esmerlyn Valdez	PIT	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.286	0.89x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Bryce Harper	PHI	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.197	1.22x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
Shea Langeliers	ATH	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.230	1.05x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no
Yordan Alvarez	HOU	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.246	0.98x	−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
Colson Montgomery	CWS	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.280	0.86x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Ben Rice	NYY	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.245	0.98x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
Munetaka Murakami	CWS	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.261	0.92x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Junior Caminero	TB	T2 · Power Bat	0.231	0.261	0.88x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
Byron Buxton	MIN	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.253	0.89x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	not yet graded

Section that night: 2 home runs against 2.53 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

MOUND SUPPRESS

The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.

Pitcher	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Griffin Jax	T1 · Slugger	0.984	1.167	0.84x	strong suppression spot	1 HR allowed
Cade Cavalli	T1 · Slugger	0.984	1.110	0.89x	strong suppression spot	0 HR allowed
Hunter Dobbins	T1 · Slugger	0.924	1.074	0.86x	strong suppression spot	0 HR allowed
Landen Roupp	T1 · Slugger	0.846	1.107	0.76x	elite suppression spot	1 HR allowed

Section that night: 2 home runs against 4.46 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

MOUND VULN

The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.

Pitcher	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Bailey Ober		T1 · Slugger	1.121	0.903	1.24x	vulnerable spot — hitters' night	1 HR allowed
Peter Lambert		T1 · Slugger	0.945	0.748	1.26x	vulnerable spot — hitters' night	0 HR allowed

Section that night: 1 home run against 1.65 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data