Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-09

2026-08-09

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
32picks
Ben Ricetop pick · 25%
Final results
ELEVATED2 of 8 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
SLEEPERS0 of 6 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.4.
AROUND SLATE3 of 13 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
FAVORITES2 of 9 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS2 home runs allowed across 3 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 3 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN2 home runs allowed across 2 starts. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

CIN @ WSH12:15 PMNationals Parkneutral park94°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.2% carry
CF9 mph
Temp94°F
Humidity45%
Wind9 mph
Pressure1015 mb
Air density1.139 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Andrés ChaparroWSHT3 · Solid
we say 18% +7.7% over normal 1.78x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Brady HouseWSHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.5% over normal 1.40x · ELEVATED
+career hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
José TenaWSHT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.6% over normal 1.45x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−recent fly-ball rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
NYM @ PIT1:35 PMPNC Parkpitcher-friendly park84°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.1% carry
CF5 mph
Temp84°F
Humidity54%
Wind5 mph
Pressure990 mb
Air density1.132 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Henry DavisPITT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.0% over normal 1.28x · ELEVATED · ATS
−park factor, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
TOR @ PHI1:35 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park93°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.1% carry
CF9 mph
Temp93°F
Humidity46%
Wind9 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Air density1.140 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryce HarperPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +4.5% over normal 1.23x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Bryson StottPHIT3 · Solid
we say 16% +6.0% over normal 1.60x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORT4 · The Field
we say 13% +4.8% over normal 1.55x · SLEEPERS
+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Luis ArraezPHIT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.5% over normal 1.44x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +2.2% over normal 1.09x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
ATL @ NYY1:35 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park94°F, wind 12 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +6.6% carry
CF12 mph
Temp94°F
Humidity38%
Wind12 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Air density1.140 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Paul GoldschmidtNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.1% over normal 1.27x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +lineup slot
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Mike YastrzemskiATLT3 · Solid
we say 15% +3.6% over normal 1.31x · ELEVATED
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ben RiceNYYT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +1.0% over normal 1.04x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-0.9% over normal 0.96x · FAVORITES
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
7 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
ATH @ BOS1:35 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park90°F, wind 13 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +7.7% carry
CF13 mph
Temp90°F
Humidity44%
Wind13 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Air density1.144 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jake RogersBOST4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.9% over normal 1.46x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, +pull tendency
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Erik Miller
lineup expected to homer 0.49 times vs 0.68 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
0 HR allowed
LAA @ MIA1:40 PMloanDepot parkpitcher-friendly park89°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.6% carry
CF10 mph
Temp89°F
Humidity70%
Wind10 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Air density1.149 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle StowersMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +7.8% over normal 1.58x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jakob MarseeMIAT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.3% over normal 1.69x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Grayson Rodriguez
lineup expected to homer 1.11 times vs 0.94 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
MIN @ MIL2:10 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park74°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.2% carry
CF2 mph
Temp74°F
Humidity84%
Wind2 mph
Pressure990 mb
Air density1.152 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Andrew VaughnMILT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.1% over normal 1.36x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, +park factor
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Jacob Misiorowski
lineup expected to homer 0.82 times vs 0.97 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
2 HR allowed
CHC @ KC2:10 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park96°F, wind 14 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +7.8% carry
CF14 mph
Temp96°F
Humidity43%
Wind14 mph
Pressure978 mb
Air density1.093 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jac CaglianoneKCT3 · Solid
we say 16% +1.9% over normal 1.13x · ATS
+career barrel rate, −park factor
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CLE @ CWS2:10 PMRate Fieldneutral park74°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.6% carry
CF7 mph
Temp74°F
Humidity87%
Wind7 mph
Pressure991 mb
Air density1.155 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Rhys HoskinsCLET2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +3.9% over normal 1.25x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-2.9% over normal 0.89x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
COL @ STL2:15 PMBusch Stadiumpitcher-friendly park92°F, wind 13 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.4% carry
CF13 mph
Temp92°F
Humidity57%
Wind13 mph
Pressure996 mb
Air density1.120 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Alec BurlesonSTLT3 · Solid
we say 15% +1.7% over normal 1.12x · ATS
−park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
BAL @ TEX2:35 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park99°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.0% carry
CF9 mph
Temp99°F
Humidity30%
Wind9 mph
Pressure993 mb
Air density1.106 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Tyler O'NeillBALT3 · Solid
we say 18% +6.9% over normal 1.65x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Joc PedersonTEXT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +1.5% over normal 1.08x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
DET @ SF4:05 PMOracle Parkpitcher-friendly park60°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.4% carry
CF8 mph
Temp60°F
Humidity88%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1008 mb
Air density1.210 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryce EldridgeSFT3 · Solid
we say 14% +0.7% over normal 1.06x · ATS
−park factor, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Troy Melton
lineup expected to homer 0.71 times vs 0.87 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
TB @ SEA4:10 PMT-Mobile Parkneutral park68°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.4% carry
CF5 mph
Temp68°F
Humidity66%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1015 mb
Air density1.199 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Randy ArozarenaSEAT3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.6% over normal 1.22x · ATS
+SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-2.2% over normal 0.91x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
LAD @ AZ4:10 PMChase Fieldpitcher-friendly park102°F, wind 1 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.3% carry
CF1 mph
Temp102°F
Humidity20%
Wind1 mph
Pressure969 mb
Air density1.077 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Tim TawaAZT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.6% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ryan WaldschmidtAZT4 · The Field
we say 13% +6.9% over normal 2.07x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+season barrel rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Shohei OhtaniLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.9% over normal 0.97x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Justin Wrobleski
lineup expected to homer 1.51 times vs 1.32 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
HOU @ SD8:20 PMPetco Parkneutral park71°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.0% carry
CF3 mph
Temp71°F
Humidity86%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Air density1.186 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.9% over normal 1.44x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Cam SmithHOUT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.1% over normal 1.28x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.6% over normal 1.03x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data