Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-09

2026-08-09

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

Pass shown: confirmed, morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.

← 2026-08-08 all nights 2026-08-10 →

ELEVATED

Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Bryce Harper	PHI	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.196	1.23x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
Kyle Stowers	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.133	1.58x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Paul Goldschmidt	NYY	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.150	1.27x	+park factor, +lineup slot	not yet graded
Rhys Hoskins	CLE	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.152	1.25x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	not yet graded
Tyler O'Neill	BAL	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.107	1.65x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Andrés Chaparro	WSH	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.099	1.78x	+recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	not yet graded
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.111	1.44x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	HOME RUN
Bryson Stott	PHI	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.100	1.60x	+park factor, +pull tendency	no
Brady House	WSH	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.114	1.40x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	not yet graded
Tim Tawa	AZ	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.124	1.29x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Mike Yastrzemski	ATL	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.116	1.31x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
Cam Smith	HOU	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.112	1.28x	+recent hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate	not yet graded
Henry Davis	PIT	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.110	1.28x	−park factor, +career hard-hit rate	no

Section that night: 2 home runs against 1.00 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

SLEEPERS

Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.087	1.55x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
Ryan Waldschmidt	AZ	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.065	2.07x	+season barrel rate, +career barrel rate	no
Jake Rogers	BOS	T4 · The Field	0.124	0.085	1.46x	+career barrel rate, +pull tendency	no
José Tena	WSH	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.081	1.45x	−recent fly-ball rate, +park factor	no
Andrew Vaughn	MIL	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.086	1.36x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	not yet graded
Jakob Marsee	MIA	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.062	1.69x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
Luis Arraez	PHI	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.056	1.44x	+park factor, −career hard-hit rate	no

Section that night: 0 home runs against 0.44 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

AROUND SLATE

One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Kyle Stowers	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.133	1.58x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Paul Goldschmidt	NYY	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.150	1.27x	+park factor, +lineup slot	not yet graded
Rhys Hoskins	CLE	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.152	1.25x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	not yet graded
Tyler O'Neill	BAL	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.107	1.65x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Andrés Chaparro	WSH	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.099	1.78x	+recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	not yet graded
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.111	1.44x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	HOME RUN
Bryson Stott	PHI	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.100	1.60x	+park factor, +pull tendency	no
Tim Tawa	AZ	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.124	1.29x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Jac Caglianone	KC	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.141	1.13x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	no
Alec Burleson	STL	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.136	1.12x	−park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Randy Arozarena	SEA	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.117	1.22x	+SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Henry Davis	PIT	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.110	1.28x	−park factor, +career hard-hit rate	no
Bryce Eldridge	SF	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.133	1.06x	−park factor, +career hard-hit rate	no
Ryan Waldschmidt	AZ	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.065	2.07x	+season barrel rate, +career barrel rate	no
Jake Rogers	BOS	T4 · The Field	0.124	0.085	1.46x	+career barrel rate, +pull tendency	no
José Tena	WSH	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.081	1.45x	−recent fly-ball rate, +park factor	no
Andrew Vaughn	MIL	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.086	1.36x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	not yet graded

Section that night: 3 home runs against 1.44 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

FAVORITES

Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Kyle Schwarber	PHI	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.233	1.09x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Ben Rice	NYY	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.245	1.04x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Munetaka Murakami	CWS	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.270	0.89x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Bryce Harper	PHI	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.196	1.23x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
Shohei Ohtani	LAD	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.250	0.97x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Yordan Alvarez	HOU	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.235	1.03x	−park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
Matt Olson	ATL	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.236	0.96x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	HOME RUN
Junior Caminero	TB	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.250	0.91x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Joc Pederson	TEX	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.196	1.08x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	not yet graded
Kyle Stowers	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.133	1.58x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no

Section that night: 2 home runs against 2.05 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

MOUND SUPPRESS

The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.

Pitcher	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Jacob Misiorowski	T1 · Slugger	0.821	0.973	0.84x	strong suppression spot	2 HR allowed
Troy Melton	T1 · Slugger	0.711	0.868	0.82x	strong suppression spot	0 HR allowed
Erik Miller	T1 · Slugger	0.491	0.684	0.72x	elite suppression spot	0 HR allowed

Section that night: 2 home runs against 2.52 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

MOUND VULN

The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.

Pitcher	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Justin Wrobleski		T1 · Slugger	1.513	1.319	1.15x	vulnerable spot — hitters' night	1 HR allowed
Grayson Rodriguez		T1 · Slugger	1.112	0.938	1.19x	vulnerable spot — hitters' night	1 HR allowed

Section that night: 2 home runs against 2.26 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data