Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-22

2026-08-22

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
41picks
Shohei Ohtanitop pick · 25%
Final results
ELEVATED2 of 14 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS0 of 8 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.4.
AROUND SLATE2 of 16 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
FAVORITES1 of 13 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 3.
MOUND SUPPRESS7 home runs allowed across 4 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 4 — which is not what we called for.
MOUND VULN0 home runs allowed across 1 start. A typical night for those lineups is 1 — which is not what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

TOR @ NYY1:35 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park78°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.8% carry
CF6 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity63%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Rain chance5%
Air density1.174 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm77°65% rh1mph1% rain
2pm77°62% rh4mph1% rain
3pm78°63% rh4mph1% rain
4pm78°60% rh7mph4% rain
5pm78°63% rh6mph5% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jesús SánchezTORT3 · Solid
we say 18% +4.8% over normal 1.38x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORT4 · The Field
we say 12% +5.4% over normal 1.77x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-2.2% over normal 0.90x · FAVORITES
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
ATL @ MIL2:10 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park77°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.6% carry
CF10 mph
Temp77°F
Humidity43%
Wind10 mph
Pressure992 mb
Rain chance5%
Air density1.152 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

2pm78°58% rh12mph2% rain
3pm79°56% rh15mph8% rain
4pm79°47% rh15mph9% rain
5pm78°44% rh12mph4% rain
6pm77°43% rh10mph5% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.4% over normal 1.51x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Mike YastrzemskiATLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.7% over normal 1.49x · ELEVATED
−SP strikeout rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.6% over normal 0.98x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
WSH @ MIA4:10 PMloanDepot parkpitcher-friendly park79°F, wind 13 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.7% carry
CF13 mph
Temp79°F
Humidity81%
Wind13 mph
Pressure1017 mb
Rain chance14%
Air density1.173 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

4pm90°68% rh8mph2% rain
5pm87°76% rh6mph5% rain
6pm88°66% rh5mph16% rain
7pm86°71% rh3mph20% rain
8pm79°81% rh13mph14% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Xavier EdwardsMIAT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.5% over normal 1.47x · SLEEPERS
−season hard-hit rate, −career hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Griffin ConineMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +2.8% over normal 1.15x · ATS · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
José TenaWSHT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.0% over normal 1.32x · ATS
+season hard-hit rate, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
STL @ PHI6:05 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park70°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.0% carry
CF4 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity92%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1013 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.189 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm75°81% rh7mph13% rain
7pm74°83% rh5mph6% rain
8pm72°88% rh4mph3% rain
9pm71°90% rh6mph2% rain
10pm70°92% rh4mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

JJ WetherholtSTLT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +6.6% over normal 1.57x · ELEVATED · ATS
Rookie power is streaky, but the park and the matchup both line up here.
+park factor, +lineup slot
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Blaze JordanSTLT4 · The Field
we say 12% +5.1% over normal 1.78x · SLEEPERS
+season barrel rate, −platoon edge
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.8% over normal 1.08x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
LAA @ TEX7:05 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park93°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.8% carry
CF5 mph
Temp93°F
Humidity31%
Wind5 mph
Pressure992 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density1.120 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

7pm104°21% rh8mph2% rain
8pm101°19% rh6mph2% rain
9pm97°23% rh5mph2% rain
10pm94°28% rh5mph2% rain
11pm93°31% rh5mph2% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Joc PedersonTEXT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +4.2% over normal 1.21x · ELEVATED
+career hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Corey SeagerTEXT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +4.2% over normal 1.23x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Brandon NimmoTEXT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.4% over normal 1.32x · ELEVATED
+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Travis d'ArnaudLAAT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.4% over normal 1.73x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+recent barrel rate, +season barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
TB @ BAL7:05 PMOriole Park at Camden Yardshitter-friendly park72°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.2% carry
CF5 mph
Temp72°F
Humidity90%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Rain chance21%
Air density1.182 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm74°84% rh4mph8% rain
8pm72°89% rh4mph10% rain
9pm73°89% rh7mph13% rain
10pm73°89% rh5mph21% rain
11pm72°90% rh5mph21% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Tyler O'NeillBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +7.6% over normal 1.71x · ELEVATED · ATS
Camden in August, and McClanahan has been leaving the fastball up.
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-2.6% over normal 0.89x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Brandon Young
lineup expected to homer 0.94 times vs 1.09 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
ATH @ HOU7:10 PMDaikin Parkhitter-friendly park81°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.0% carry
CF7 mph
Temp81°F
Humidity80%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.161 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

7pm84°73% rh20mph0% rain
8pm83°76% rh12mph2% rain
9pm81°75% rh6mph2% rain
10pm82°84% rh5mph2% rain
11pm81°80% rh7mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Cam SmithHOUT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.6% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.5% over normal 1.07x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
NYM @ CWS7:10 PMRate Fieldneutral park66°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.4% carry
CF6 mph
Temp66°F
Humidity72%
Wind6 mph
Pressure994 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.179 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm72°49% rh11mph3% rain
8pm70°70% rh7mph4% rain
9pm69°70% rh6mph2% rain
10pm67°69% rh7mph1% rain
11pm66°72% rh6mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Brett BatyNYMT3 · Solid
we say 16% +6.5% over normal 1.68x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
A.J. EwingNYMT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.3% over normal 1.36x · ELEVATED
+lineup slot, +season barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-2.9% over normal 0.89x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CHC @ SEA7:15 PMT-Mobile Parkneutral park62°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.3% carry
CF4 mph
Temp62°F
Humidity77%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1016 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density1.216 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

7pm68°65% rh8mph1% rain
8pm64°72% rh6mph1% rain
9pm62°75% rh4mph2% rain
10pm61°74% rh0mph2% rain
11pm62°77% rh4mph2% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Michael ConfortoCHCT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.7% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED
+SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Alex BregmanCHCT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.9% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED · ATS
+SP career HR rate, +recent fly-ball rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
PIT @ LAD7:15 PMUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadiumhitter-friendly park71°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.3% carry
CF2 mph
Temp71°F
Humidity77%
Wind2 mph
Pressure993 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.163 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm80°52% rh6mph0% rain
8pm76°60% rh5mph1% rain
9pm74°71% rh3mph0% rain
10pm72°76% rh3mph0% rain
11pm71°77% rh2mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle TuckerLADT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.9% over normal 1.45x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Nick GonzalesPITT4 · The Field
we say 12% +7.2% over normal 2.43x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, −SP strikeout rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Henry DavisPITT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +7.4% over normal 1.68x · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Shohei OhtaniLADT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +1.8% over normal 1.08x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Max MuncyLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +3.0% over normal 1.16x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Oneil CruzPITT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +2.4% over normal 1.13x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jared Jones
lineup expected to homer 1.21 times vs 1.02 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
0 HR allowed
DET @ KC7:15 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park72°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.7% carry
CF5 mph
Temp72°F
Humidity66%
Wind5 mph
Pressure986 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.158 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm82°50% rh5mph0% rain
8pm78°58% rh4mph0% rain
9pm75°61% rh5mph0% rain
10pm73°65% rh4mph0% rain
11pm72°66% rh5mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jac CaglianoneKCT3 · Solid
we say 16% +1.5% over normal 1.10x · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Colt KeithDETT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +1.7% over normal 1.24x · ATS
−park factor, +season barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Michael Wacha
lineup expected to homer 0.62 times vs 0.74 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
SF @ BOS7:15 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park66°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.6% carry
CF2 mph
Temp66°F
Humidity89%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Rain chance3%
Air density1.202 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm67°85% rh7mph2% rain
8pm66°87% rh6mph1% rain
9pm66°87% rh6mph1% rain
10pm66°87% rh5mph1% rain
11pm66°89% rh2mph3% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Wilyer AbreuBOST2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.1% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED · ATS
+SP career HR rate, +SP strikeout rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Christian KossSFT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +3.5% over normal 1.79x · SLEEPERS
+pull tendency, +park factor
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Willson ContrerasBOST2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +1.6% over normal 1.08x · FAVORITES
+SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Patrick Sandoval
lineup expected to homer 1.14 times vs 1.29 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
2 HR allowed
CLE @ COL8:10 PMCoors Fieldneutral park66°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.8% carry
CF9 mph
Temp66°F
Humidity86%
Wind9 mph
Pressure846 mb
Rain chance17%
Air density1.003 kg/m³

Open-air park.

8pm80°33% rh9mph5% rain
9pm79°34% rh6mph5% rain
10pm76°49% rh6mph7% rain
11pm74°53% rh11mph9% rain
12am74°44% rh6mph12% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

José RamírezCLET3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.0% over normal 1.39x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +pull tendency
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
CIN @ AZ8:10 PMChase Fieldpitcher-friendly park94°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.1% carry
CF5 mph
Temp94°F
Humidity22%
Wind5 mph
Pressure970 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.094 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

8pm101°14% rh5mph1% rain
9pm98°14% rh4mph2% rain
10pm97°17% rh7mph1% rain
11pm95°20% rh5mph1% rain
12am101°20% rh5mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Ryan WaldschmidtAZT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.8% over normal 1.85x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−career hard-hit rate, +season barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Lars NootbaarAZT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +4.6% over normal 2.07x · SLEEPERS
−park factor, −SP career HR rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Michael Soroka
lineup expected to homer 1.16 times vs 1.30 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
4 HR allowed
MIN @ SD8:40 PMPetco Parkneutral park70°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.1% carry
CF2 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity93%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.188 kg/m³

Open-air park.

8pm73°89% rh5mph0% rain
9pm72°90% rh3mph0% rain
10pm71°92% rh2mph0% rain
11pm70°92% rh2mph0% rain
12am72°91% rh1mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.7% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Byron BuxtonMINT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.5% over normal 0.98x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data