Sparrow Data
2026-07-25
The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.
Pass shown: confirmed, morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.
← 2026-07-24 all nights 2026-07-26 →
ELEVATED
Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Wood | WSH | T1 · Slugger | 0.255 | 0.203 | 1.25x | +SP strikeout rate, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Nick Kurtz | ATH | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.203 | 1.19x | +SP strikeout rate, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Kyle Stowers | MIA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.226 | 0.125 | 1.81x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Rhys Hoskins | CLE | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.146 | 1.28x | +career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate | not yet graded |
| Mike Yastrzemski | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.120 | 1.53x | +recent hard-hit rate, +park factor | not yet graded |
| Andrés Chaparro | WSH | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.108 | 1.69x | +season hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Bryce Eldridge | SF | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.140 | 1.31x | −park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Curtis Mead | WSH | T3 · Solid | 0.176 | 0.139 | 1.27x | +SP strikeout rate, +park factor | no |
| Dylan Crews | WSH | T3 · Solid | 0.176 | 0.125 | 1.40x | +SP strikeout rate, +SP career HR rate | no |
| Josh Bell | MIN | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.127 | 1.26x | +SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Austin Riley | ATL | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.112 | 1.43x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.117 | 1.36x | −park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Brandon Nimmo | TEX | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.097 | 1.44x | +career hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate | no |
| Trevor Larnach | MIN | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.108 | 1.30x | +SP career HR rate, +recent barrel rate | no |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.100 | 1.40x | +career barrel rate, −park factor | no |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.108 | 1.30x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Jasson Domínguez | NYY | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.103 | 1.37x | +career hard-hit rate, +pull tendency | HOME RUN |
Section that night: 1 home run against 1.92 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
SLEEPERS
Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willi Castro | COL | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.088 | 1.62x | +park factor, +pull tendency | no |
| Kyle Karros | COL | T4 · The Field | 0.124 | 0.078 | 1.59x | +recent barrel rate, +SP career HR rate | no |
| Leody Taveras | BAL | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.069 | 1.52x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Logan O'Hoppe | LAA | T4 · The Field | 0.100 | 0.063 | 1.58x | −park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Hunter Feduccia | TB | T5 · Longshot | 0.092 | 0.058 | 1.58x | +recent barrel rate, +season barrel rate | no |
| Jakob Marsee | MIA | T5 · Longshot | 0.092 | 0.063 | 1.45x | +park factor, −lineup slot | no |
| Josh Smith | TEX | T5 · Longshot | 0.081 | 0.046 | 1.76x | +playing time, +season barrel rate | no |
Section that night: 0 home runs against 0.47 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
AROUND SLATE
One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Kurtz | ATH | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.203 | 1.19x | +SP strikeout rate, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Kyle Stowers | MIA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.226 | 0.125 | 1.81x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Mike Yastrzemski | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.120 | 1.53x | +recent hard-hit rate, +park factor | not yet graded |
| Andrés Chaparro | WSH | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.108 | 1.69x | +season hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Bryce Eldridge | SF | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.140 | 1.31x | −park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.117 | 1.36x | −park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Jac Caglianone | KC | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.131 | 1.21x | −park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Willi Castro | COL | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.088 | 1.62x | +park factor, +pull tendency | no |
| J.T. Realmuto | PHI | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.111 | 1.26x | +career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Brandon Nimmo | TEX | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.097 | 1.44x | +career hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate | no |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.108 | 1.30x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Elly De La Cruz | CIN | T4 · The Field | 0.123 | 0.138 | 0.89x | −park factor, −SP career HR rate | no |
| Kyle Tucker | LAD | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.090 | 1.30x | −SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| Hunter Feduccia | TB | T5 · Longshot | 0.092 | 0.058 | 1.58x | +recent barrel rate, +season barrel rate | no |
| Tristan Peters | CWS | T5 · Longshot | 0.080 | 0.089 | 0.91x | −career barrel rate, +pull tendency | no |
Section that night: 1 home run against 1.60 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
FAVORITES
Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | T1 · Slugger | 0.255 | 0.259 | 0.98x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| James Wood | WSH | T1 · Slugger | 0.255 | 0.203 | 1.25x | +SP strikeout rate, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Byron Buxton | MIN | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.253 | 0.95x | +SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Junior Caminero | TB | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.254 | 0.95x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Hunter Goodman | COL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.239 | 1.01x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Nick Kurtz | ATH | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.203 | 1.19x | +SP strikeout rate, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | PIT | T2 · Power Bat | 0.227 | 0.268 | 0.85x | −park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Munetaka Murakami | CWS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.227 | 0.255 | 0.89x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Kyle Stowers | MIA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.226 | 0.125 | 1.81x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Matt Olson | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.203 | 1.04x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
Section that night: 0 home runs against 2.26 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
MOUND SUPPRESS
The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Brown | T1 · Slugger | 1.088 | 1.305 | 0.83x | strong suppression spot | 0 HR allowed | |
| Andre Pallante | T1 · Slugger | 0.898 | 1.171 | 0.77x | elite suppression spot | 0 HR allowed | |
| Dylan Cease | T1 · Slugger | 0.859 | 1.000 | 0.86x | strong suppression spot | 0 HR allowed | |
| Paul Skenes | T1 · Slugger | 0.733 | 0.900 | 0.81x | strong suppression spot | 1 HR allowed |
Section that night: 1 home run against 4.38 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
MOUND VULN
The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Paredes | T1 · Slugger | 1.176 | 1.024 | 1.15x | vulnerable spot — hitters' night | not yet graded | |
| Randy Vásquez | T1 · Slugger | 1.110 | 0.973 | 1.14x | vulnerable spot — hitters' night | 0 HR allowed |
Section that night: 0 home runs against 0.97 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.