Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-07-25

2026-07-25

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
36picks
James Woodtop pick · 25%
Final results
ELEVATED1 of 15 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS0 of 7 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.5.
AROUND SLATE1 of 14 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
FAVORITES0 of 10 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS1 home runs allowed across 4 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 4 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN0 home runs allowed across 1 start. A typical night for those lineups is 1 — which is not what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

KC @ DET1:10 PMComerica Parkpitcher-friendly park80°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.5% carry
CF5 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity46%
Wind5 mph
Pressure995 mb
Air density1.150 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jac CaglianoneKCT3 · Solid
we say 16% +2.8% over normal 1.21x · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
AZ @ WSH4:05 PMNationals Parkneutral park83°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.9% carry
CF5 mph
Temp83°F
Humidity44%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1016 mb
Air density1.167 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

James WoodWSHT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +5.1% over normal 1.25x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +season hard-hit rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Andrés ChaparroWSHT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +7.4% over normal 1.69x · ELEVATED · ATS
+season hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Curtis MeadWSHT3 · Solid
we say 18% +3.7% over normal 1.27x · ELEVATED
+SP strikeout rate, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Dylan CrewsWSHT3 · Solid
we say 18% +5.0% over normal 1.40x · ELEVATED
+SP strikeout rate, +SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
LAA @ SF4:05 PMOracle Parkpitcher-friendly park72°F, wind 15 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +5.7% carry
CF15 mph
Temp72°F
Humidity66%
Wind15 mph
Pressure1015 mb
Air density1.191 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryce EldridgeSFT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.3% over normal 1.31x · ELEVATED · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Logan O'HoppeLAAT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.7% over normal 1.58x · SLEEPERS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
SD @ MIA4:10 PMloanDepot parkpitcher-friendly park84°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.7% carry
CF7 mph
Temp84°F
Humidity79%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Air density1.161 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle StowersMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +10.1% over normal 1.81x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.0% over normal 1.40x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, −park factor
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jakob MarseeMIAT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +2.9% over normal 1.45x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −lineup slot
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Randy Vásquez
lineup expected to homer 1.11 times vs 0.97 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
0 HR allowed
TOR @ BOS4:10 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park78°F, wind 11 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.2% carry
CF11 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity38%
Wind11 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Air density1.181 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.3% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Dylan Cease
lineup expected to homer 0.86 times vs 1.00 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
NYY @ PHI6:05 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park80°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.1% carry
CF8 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity43%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1015 mb
Air density1.173 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jasson DomínguezNYYT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.8% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED
+career hard-hit rate, +pull tendency
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
J.T. RealmutoPHIT3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.9% over normal 1.26x · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +-0.5% over normal 0.98x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CLE @ TB6:10 PMTropicana Fieldneutral park87°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.9% carry
CF10 mph
Temp87°F
Humidity73%
Wind10 mph
Pressure1015 mb
Air density1.151 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Rhys HoskinsCLET2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.1% over normal 1.28x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Hunter FeducciaTBT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +3.4% over normal 1.58x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+recent barrel rate, +season barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-1.3% over normal 0.95x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CHC @ PIT6:40 PMPNC Parkpitcher-friendly park82°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.9% carry
CF6 mph
Temp82°F
Humidity51%
Wind6 mph
Pressure988 mb
Air density1.136 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryan ReynoldsPITT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.2% over normal 1.36x · ELEVATED · ATS
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Esmerlyn ValdezPITT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-4.1% over normal 0.85x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Paul Skenes
lineup expected to homer 0.73 times vs 0.90 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
ATL @ BAL7:05 PMOriole Park at Camden Yardshitter-friendly park79°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.1% carry
CF5 mph
Temp79°F
Humidity42%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1015 mb
Air density1.175 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Mike YastrzemskiATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +6.3% over normal 1.53x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.8% over normal 1.43x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Leody TaverasBALT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.6% over normal 1.52x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +0.7% over normal 1.04x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
ATH @ MIN7:10 PMTarget Fieldhitter-friendly park84°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +3.2% carry
CF3 mph
Temp84°F
Humidity73%
Wind3 mph
Pressure981 mb
Air density1.117 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Nick KurtzATHT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +3.8% over normal 1.19x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Josh BellMINT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.3% over normal 1.26x · ELEVATED
+SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Trevor LarnachMINT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.3% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED
+SP career HR rate, +recent barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Byron BuxtonMINT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-1.2% over normal 0.95x · FAVORITES
+SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Mike Paredes
lineup expected to homer 1.18 times vs 1.02 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
not yet graded
COL @ MIL7:10 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park79°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.1% carry
CF6 mph
Temp79°F
Humidity71%
Wind6 mph
Pressure990 mb
Air density1.143 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Willi CastroCOLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.5% over normal 1.62x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle KarrosCOLT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.6% over normal 1.59x · SLEEPERS
+recent barrel rate, +SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Hunter GoodmanCOLT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.2% over normal 1.01x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
HOU @ CWS7:10 PMRate Fieldneutral park77°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.4% carry
CF9 mph
Temp77°F
Humidity74%
Wind9 mph
Pressure993 mb
Air density1.150 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Tristan PetersCWST5 · Longshot
we say 8% +-0.8% over normal 0.91x · ATS
−career barrel rate, +pull tendency
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-2.8% over normal 0.89x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Hunter Brown
lineup expected to homer 1.09 times vs 1.30 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
SEA @ TEX7:15 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park98°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.4% carry
CF9 mph
Temp98°F
Humidity40%
Wind9 mph
Pressure994 mb
Air density1.108 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Brandon NimmoTEXT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.3% over normal 1.44x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Josh SmithTEXT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +3.5% over normal 1.76x · SLEEPERS
+playing time, +season barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
CIN @ STL7:15 PMBusch Stadiumpitcher-friendly park90°F, wind 1 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +2.4% carry
CF1 mph
Temp90°F
Humidity68%
Wind1 mph
Pressure996 mb
Air density1.122 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Elly De La CruzCINT4 · The Field
we say 12% +-1.5% over normal 0.89x · ATS
−park factor, −SP career HR rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Andre Pallante
lineup expected to homer 0.90 times vs 1.17 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
0 HR allowed
LAD @ NYM7:15 PMCiti Fieldneutral park76°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.4% carry
CF7 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity49%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1016 mb
Air density1.183 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle TuckerLADT4 · The Field
we say 12% +2.7% over normal 1.30x · ATS
−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data