Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-01

2026-08-01

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
34picks
Yordan Alvareztop pick · 24%
Final results
ELEVATED4 of 16 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS0 of 6 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.4.
AROUND SLATE4 of 14 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
FAVORITES1 of 9 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS3 home runs allowed across 3 starts. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.
MOUND VULN5 home runs allowed across 2 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 2 — which is what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

STL @ TOR3:07 PMRogers Centreneutral park80°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +4.4% carry
CF8 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity76%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1001 mb
Air density1.150 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORT4 · The Field
we say 13% +3.7% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Lars NootbaarSTLT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +3.5% over normal 1.67x · SLEEPERS
−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
CWS @ TB4:10 PMTropicana Fieldneutral park84°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.0% carry
CF8 mph
Temp84°F
Humidity81%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Air density1.154 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Braden MontgomeryCWST5 · Longshot
we say 8% +-0.7% over normal 0.92x · ATS
−SP career HR rate, −career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-2.7% over normal 0.90x · FAVORITES
+season hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Drew Rasmussen
lineup expected to homer 0.99 times vs 1.19 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
Jordan Hicks
lineup expected to homer 0.76 times vs 0.92 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
MIN @ SEA4:10 PMT-Mobile Parkneutral park71°F, wind 13 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +5.2% carry
CF13 mph
Temp71°F
Humidity68%
Wind13 mph
Pressure1019 mb
Air density1.196 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Trevor LarnachMINT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.3% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED · ATS
+season hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
MIA @ NYM4:10 PMCiti Fieldneutral park88°F, wind 14 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +7.0% carry
CF14 mph
Temp88°F
Humidity50%
Wind14 mph
Pressure1013 mb
Air density1.151 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle StowersMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +8.2% over normal 1.55x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Heriberto HernándezMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +5.2% over normal 1.40x · ELEVATED
+SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Otto LopezMIAT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.2% over normal 1.50x · SLEEPERS
+lineup slot, +SP career HR rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Zach Thornton
lineup expected to homer 0.88 times vs 0.70 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
2 HR allowed
PIT @ CIN6:40 PMGreat American Ball Parkhitter-friendly park78°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.1% carry
CF10 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity83%
Wind10 mph
Pressure986 mb
Air density1.138 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Henry DavisPITT3 · Solid
we say 18% +5.8% over normal 1.49x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Marcell OzunaPITT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.7% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Bryan ReynoldsPITT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.8% over normal 1.31x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +recent barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Nick GonzalesPITT4 · The Field
we say 10% +5.4% over normal 2.09x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +lineup slot
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jared TrioloPITT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.3% over normal 1.40x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −recent fly-ball rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Esmerlyn ValdezPITT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-3.0% over normal 0.88x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
PHI @ BAL7:05 PMOriole Park at Camden Yardshitter-friendly park83°F, wind 13 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.9% carry
CF13 mph
Temp83°F
Humidity64%
Wind13 mph
Pressure1011 mb
Air density1.158 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Tyler O'NeillBALT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.3% over normal 1.30x · ATS
+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-1.0% over normal 0.96x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
TEX @ HOU7:10 PMDaikin Parkhitter-friendly park87°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +0.7% carry
CF5 mph
Temp87°F
Humidity83%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1007 mb
Air density1.139 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Brandon NimmoTEXT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.4% over normal 1.45x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.5% over normal 0.98x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Joc PedersonTEXT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +1.8% over normal 1.10x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
AZ @ CLE7:15 PMProgressive Fieldpitcher-friendly park79°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.6% carry
CF7 mph
Temp79°F
Humidity68%
Wind7 mph
Pressure984 mb
Air density1.135 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Rhys HoskinsCLET3 · Solid
we say 16% +1.3% over normal 1.09x · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Parker Messick
lineup expected to homer 0.90 times vs 1.05 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
3 HR allowed
NYY @ CHC7:15 PMWrigley Fieldneutral park70°F, wind 15 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.9% carry
CF15 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity94%
Wind15 mph
Pressure987 mb
Air density1.159 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Anthony VolpeNYYT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.1% over normal 1.35x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, +pull tendency
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-1.4% over normal 0.94x · FAVORITES
−SP career HR rate, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
WSH @ ATL7:15 PMTruist Parkhitter-friendly park85°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +0.1% carry
CF8 mph
Temp85°F
Humidity64%
Wind8 mph
Pressure971 mb
Air density1.107 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Drake BaldwinATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +4.1% over normal 1.22x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ronald Acuña Jr.ATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +6.1% over normal 1.43x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Mike YastrzemskiATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +6.0% over normal 1.49x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.6% over normal 1.48x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, −lineup slot
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +2.7% over normal 1.13x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Miles Mikolas
lineup expected to homer 1.57 times vs 1.28 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
3 HR allowed
KC @ COL8:10 PMCoors Fieldneutral park75°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.5% carry
CF8 mph
Temp75°F
Humidity31%
Wind8 mph
Pressure844 mb
Air density0.984 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jac CaglianoneKCT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +5.5% over normal 1.41x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
SF @ SD8:40 PMPetco Parkneutral park68°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.5% carry
CF3 mph
Temp68°F
Humidity100%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1011 mb
Air density1.191 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.3% over normal 1.43x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
BOS @ LAD9:10 PMUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadiumhitter-friendly park66°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.2% carry
CF2 mph
Temp66°F
Humidity93%
Wind2 mph
Pressure991 mb
Air density1.174 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Miguel RojasLADT4 · The Field
we say 13% +7.2% over normal 2.16x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, +recent barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Shohei OhtaniLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.9% over normal 0.97x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
MIL @ LAA9:38 PMAngel Stadiumhitter-friendly park69°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.4% carry
CF4 mph
Temp69°F
Humidity94%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1005 mb
Air density1.183 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jorge SolerLAAT3 · Solid
we say 16% +2.1% over normal 1.15x · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
DET @ ATH9:40 PMSutter Health Parkhitter-friendly park73°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.3% carry
CF5 mph
Temp73°F
Humidity45%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1008 mb
Air density1.181 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Riley GreeneDETT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +3.8% over normal 1.26x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kevin McGonigleDETT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.1% over normal 1.41x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +SP fly balls allowed
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data