Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-01

2026-08-01

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

Pass shown: confirmed, morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.

← 2026-07-31 all nights 2026-08-02 →

ELEVATED

Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Kyle Stowers	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.231	0.149	1.55x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Drake Baldwin	ATL	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.187	1.22x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
Ronald Acuña Jr.	ATL	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.142	1.43x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Riley Greene	DET	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.149	1.26x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
Jac Caglianone	KC	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.133	1.41x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Mike Yastrzemski	ATL	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.122	1.49x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	no
Heriberto Hernández	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.130	1.40x	+SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate	no
Henry Davis	PIT	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.118	1.49x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	no
Marcell Ozuna	PIT	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.122	1.30x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
Bryan Reynolds	PIT	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.122	1.31x	+park factor, +recent barrel rate	no
Austin Riley	ATL	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.097	1.48x	+career barrel rate, −lineup slot	no
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.100	1.43x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	no
Brandon Nimmo	TEX	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.097	1.45x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Trevor Larnach	MIN	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.108	1.30x	+season hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
Kevin McGonigle	DET	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.099	1.41x	+park factor, +SP fly balls allowed	HOME RUN
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.098	1.37x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no

Section that night: 4 home runs against 1.97 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

SLEEPERS

Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Miguel Rojas	LAD	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.062	2.16x	+park factor, +recent barrel rate	no
Otto Lopez	MIA	T4 · The Field	0.124	0.082	1.50x	+lineup slot, +SP career HR rate	no
Nick Gonzales	PIT	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.050	2.09x	+park factor, +lineup slot	no
Lars Nootbaar	STL	T5 · Longshot	0.086	0.052	1.67x	−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate	no
Anthony Volpe	NYY	T5 · Longshot	0.081	0.060	1.35x	+career barrel rate, +pull tendency	no
Jared Triolo	PIT	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.057	1.40x	+park factor, −recent fly-ball rate	no

Section that night: 0 home runs against 0.36 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

AROUND SLATE

One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Kyle Stowers	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.231	0.149	1.55x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Ronald Acuña Jr.	ATL	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.142	1.43x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Jac Caglianone	KC	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.133	1.41x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Henry Davis	PIT	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.118	1.49x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	no
Jorge Soler	LAA	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.139	1.15x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Rhys Hoskins	CLE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.146	1.09x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	not yet graded
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.100	1.43x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	no
Tyler O'Neill	BAL	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.109	1.30x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	no
Brandon Nimmo	TEX	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.097	1.45x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Trevor Larnach	MIN	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.108	1.30x	+season hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
Kevin McGonigle	DET	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.099	1.41x	+park factor, +SP fly balls allowed	HOME RUN
Miguel Rojas	LAD	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.062	2.16x	+park factor, +recent barrel rate	no
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.098	1.37x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Anthony Volpe	NYY	T5 · Longshot	0.081	0.060	1.35x	+career barrel rate, +pull tendency	no
Braden Montgomery	CWS	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.087	0.92x	−SP career HR rate, −career barrel rate	no

Section that night: 4 home runs against 1.50 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

FAVORITES

Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Kyle Schwarber	PHI	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.251	0.96x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
Yordan Alvarez	HOU	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.246	0.98x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Matt Olson	ATL	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.214	1.13x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	HOME RUN
Shohei Ohtani	LAD	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.250	0.97x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Munetaka Murakami	CWS	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.268	0.90x	+season hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate	no
Kyle Stowers	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.231	0.149	1.55x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Drake Baldwin	ATL	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.187	1.22x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
Esmerlyn Valdez	PIT	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.258	0.88x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
Ben Rice	NYY	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.240	0.94x	−SP career HR rate, +SP strikeout rate	not yet graded
Joc Pederson	TEX	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.192	1.10x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no

Section that night: 1 home run against 2.01 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

MOUND SUPPRESS

The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.

Pitcher	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Drew Rasmussen	T1 · Slugger	0.989	1.190	0.83x	strong suppression spot	0 HR allowed
Parker Messick	T1 · Slugger	0.896	1.054	0.85x	strong suppression spot	3 HR allowed
Jordan Hicks	T1 · Slugger	0.758	0.917	0.83x	strong suppression spot	0 HR allowed

Section that night: 3 home runs against 3.16 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

MOUND VULN

The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.

Pitcher	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Miles Mikolas		T1 · Slugger	1.570	1.278	1.23x	vulnerable spot — hitters' night	3 HR allowed
Zach Thornton		T1 · Slugger	0.878	0.704	1.25x	vulnerable spot — hitters' night	2 HR allowed

Section that night: 5 home runs against 1.98 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data