ELEVATED1 of 9 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
SLEEPERS0 of 3 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.2.
AROUND SLATE3 of 12 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
FAVORITES1 of 9 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS4 home runs allowed across 4 starts. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.
MOUND VULN1 home runs allowed across 1 start. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.
One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.
CIN @ LAD10:10 PMUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadiumhitter-friendly park78°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN+0.3% carry
Temp78°F
Humidity63%
Wind5 mph
Pressure994 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density1.151 kg/m³
Open-air park.
10pm81°55% rh3mph2% rain
11pm81°50% rh0mph2% rain
12am76°56% rh7mph1% rain
1am75°59% rh6mph1% rain
2am76°59% rh7mph1% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
lineup expected to homer 1.18 times vs 0.90 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
CLE @ BAL6:35 PMOriole Park at Camden Yardshitter-friendly park74°F, wind 1 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND-0.7% carry
Temp74°F
Humidity72%
Wind1 mph
Pressure1023 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.192 kg/m³
Open-air park.
6pm84°47% rh6mph0% rain
7pm81°56% rh6mph0% rain
8pm78°64% rh4mph0% rain
9pm76°68% rh3mph0% rain
10pm74°72% rh1mph0% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
HOU @ PHI6:40 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park70°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT-0.7% carry
Temp70°F
Humidity74%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1023 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.201 kg/m³
Open-air park.
6pm82°39% rh6mph0% rain
7pm77°52% rh5mph0% rain
8pm74°60% rh4mph0% rain
9pm72°68% rh2mph0% rain
10pm70°74% rh3mph0% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
6pm83°79% rh7mph12% rain
7pm82°82% rh5mph12% rain
8pm80°86% rh5mph13% rain
9pm78°90% rh3mph10% rain
10pm78°91% rh2mph8% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
MIN @ DET6:40 PMComerica Parkpitcher-friendly park72°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN-1.7% carry
Temp72°F
Humidity75%
Wind6 mph
Pressure998 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density1.168 kg/m³
Open-air park.
6pm81°47% rh7mph0% rain
7pm80°52% rh6mph0% rain
8pm75°61% rh5mph0% rain
9pm73°70% rh6mph1% rain
10pm72°75% rh6mph2% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
COL @ NYY7:05 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park69°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND-1.7% carry
Temp69°F
Humidity83%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1023 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.204 kg/m³
Open-air park.
7pm79°39% rh1mph1% rain
8pm74°51% rh5mph1% rain
9pm72°63% rh4mph1% rain
10pm70°78% rh4mph1% rain
11pm69°83% rh3mph0% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
CHC @ MIL7:40 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park72°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND+1.0% carry
Temp72°F
Humidity63%
Wind3 mph
Pressure992 mb
Rain chance22%
Air density1.163 kg/m³
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
7pm75°64% rh4mph10% rain
8pm72°67% rh4mph10% rain
9pm71°70% rh4mph13% rain
10pm72°63% rh4mph12% rain
11pm72°63% rh3mph22% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
lineup expected to homer 0.72 times vs 0.84 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
AZ @ KC7:40 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park87°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT+3.3% carry
Temp87°F
Humidity40%
Wind7 mph
Pressure984 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.121 kg/m³
Open-air park.
7pm98°28% rh8mph0% rain
8pm93°33% rh6mph0% rain
9pm91°35% rh8mph0% rain
10pm89°37% rh7mph1% rain
11pm87°40% rh7mph1% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
9pm60°74% rh4mph0% rain
10pm59°72% rh3mph0% rain
11pm58°71% rh3mph0% rain
12am59°72% rh3mph0% rain
1am57°71% rh3mph0% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 23%+9.6% over normal1.71x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
TOR @ ATH9:40 PMSutter Health Parkhitter-friendly park70°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN-2.2% carry
Temp70°F
Humidity42%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.197 kg/m³
Open-air park.
9pm78°35% rh5mph0% rain
10pm75°33% rh5mph0% rain
11pm73°37% rh5mph0% rain
12am69°43% rh4mph0% rain
1am67°46% rh2mph0% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
lineup expected to homer 0.88 times vs 1.09 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
2 HR allowed
Landen Roupp
lineup expected to homer 0.76 times vs 0.97 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
0 HR allowed
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data
