Sparrow Data
Board archive — 2026-08-18
2026-08-18
The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.
Pass shown: morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.
ELEVATED
Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willson Contreras | BOS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.200 | 1.20x | +SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Jackson Merrill | SD | T2 · Power Bat | 0.226 | 0.168 | 1.35x | +SP career HR rate, +SP strikeout rate | no grade — game not played |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.129 | 1.57x | +career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate | no grade — game not played |
| Mike Yastrzemski | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.111 | 1.83x | +career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Wilyer Abreu | BOS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.145 | 1.30x | +SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Austin Riley | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.109 | 1.68x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Francisco Alvarez | NYM | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.148 | 1.24x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Bryce Eldridge | SF | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.143 | 1.28x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Ty France | SD | T3 · Solid | 0.176 | 0.142 | 1.24x | +SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Tyler O'Neill | BAL | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.110 | 1.46x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Kyle Tucker | LAD | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.111 | 1.44x | +career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate | no grade — game not played |
| Dylan Crews | WSH | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.126 | 1.26x | +SP strikeout rate, +lineup slot | no grade — game not played |
| Andrés Chaparro | WSH | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.107 | 1.34x | +recent hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| William Contreras | MIL | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.107 | 1.31x | +park factor, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Bo Bichette | NYM | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.091 | 1.55x | −pull tendency, +SP fly balls allowed | no grade — game not played |
SLEEPERS
Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Norby | COL | T4 · The Field | 0.124 | 0.077 | 1.60x | +career barrel rate, +season barrel rate | no grade — game not played |
| Andrew Vaughn | MIL | T4 · The Field | 0.123 | 0.069 | 1.78x | +park factor, +recent barrel rate | no grade — game not played |
| Jordan Beck | COL | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.067 | 1.56x | +SP fly balls allowed, +lineup slot | no grade — game not played |
| Luis Rengifo | SD | T4 · The Field | 0.100 | 0.063 | 1.58x | +SP career barrels allowed, +SP career HR rate | no grade — game not played |
| Lars Nootbaar | AZ | T5 · Longshot | 0.080 | 0.041 | 1.94x | +pull tendency, −SP career HR rate | no grade — game not played |
AROUND SLATE
One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.129 | 1.57x | +career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate | no grade — game not played |
| Mike Yastrzemski | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.111 | 1.83x | +career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Wilyer Abreu | BOS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.145 | 1.30x | +SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Bryce Eldridge | SF | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.143 | 1.28x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Tyler O'Neill | BAL | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.110 | 1.46x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Kyle Tucker | LAD | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.111 | 1.44x | +career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate | no grade — game not played |
| Isaac Paredes | HOU | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.131 | 1.22x | +season fly-ball rate, +SP career HR rate | no grade — game not played |
| Andrés Chaparro | WSH | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.107 | 1.34x | +recent hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.110 | 1.30x | +career hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate | no grade — game not played |
| Heriberto Hernández | MIA | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.130 | 1.09x | +career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate | no grade — game not played |
| Andrew Vaughn | MIL | T4 · The Field | 0.123 | 0.069 | 1.78x | +park factor, +recent barrel rate | no grade — game not played |
| Alex Bregman | CHC | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.098 | 1.19x | +SP career HR rate, +pull tendency | no grade — game not played |
| Henry Bolte | ATH | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.091 | 1.29x | −park factor, +SP career HR rate | no grade — game not played |
| Blaze Jordan | STL | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.070 | 1.49x | −lineup slot, +season barrel rate | no grade — game not played |
| Ernie Clement | TOR | T5 · Longshot | 0.080 | 0.068 | 1.17x | −career hard-hit rate, −recent hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
FAVORITES
Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.248 | 0.97x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAD | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.236 | 1.02x | +SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate | no grade — game not played |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.231 | 1.05x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | no grade — game not played |
| Ben Rice | NYY | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.240 | 1.00x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Munetaka Murakami | CWS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.271 | 0.89x | +career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Willson Contreras | BOS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.200 | 1.20x | +SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Jackson Merrill | SD | T2 · Power Bat | 0.226 | 0.168 | 1.35x | +SP career HR rate, +SP strikeout rate | no grade — game not played |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | T2 · Power Bat | 0.225 | 0.234 | 0.96x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no grade — game not played |
| Byron Buxton | MIN | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.244 | 0.86x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.129 | 1.57x | +career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate | no grade — game not played |
MOUND SUPPRESS
The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Mahle | T1 · Slugger | 1.123 | 1.230 | 0.91x | lean suppression | no grade — game not played | |
| José Soriano | T1 · Slugger | 0.830 | 1.023 | 0.81x | strong suppression spot | no grade — game not played | |
| Braxton Ashcraft | T1 · Slugger | 0.787 | 0.937 | 0.84x | strong suppression spot | no grade — game not played |
MOUND VULN
The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Thornton | T1 · Slugger | 1.379 | 1.065 | 1.29x | vulnerable spot — hitters' night | no grade — game not played |
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-17. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data