Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-18

2026-08-18

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
34picks
Munetaka Murakamitop pick · 24%
Final results
ELEVATED3 of 15 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS0 of 4 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.3.
AROUND SLATE3 of 13 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
FAVORITES3 of 9 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS3 home runs allowed across 4 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 5 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN2 home runs allowed across 1 start. A typical night for those lineups is 1 — which is what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

NYY @ BAL6:35 PMOriole Park at Camden Yardshitter-friendly park77°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.1% carry
CF5 mph
Temp77°F
Humidity71%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Air density1.173 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Tyler O'NeillBALT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.0% over normal 1.46x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.1% over normal 1.00x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
TOR @ TB6:40 PMTropicana Fieldneutral park82°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.2% carry
CF5 mph
Temp82°F
Humidity86%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Air density1.160 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jesús SánchezTORT3 · Solid
we say 15% +2.6% over normal 1.21x · ATS
+recent barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
José Soriano
lineup expected to homer 0.90 times vs 1.08 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
DET @ PIT6:40 PMPNC Parkpitcher-friendly park70°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.1% carry
CF4 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity64%
Wind4 mph
Pressure987 mb
Air density1.161 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryan ReynoldsPITT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.3% over normal 1.30x · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Braxton Ashcraft
lineup expected to homer 0.87 times vs 1.01 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
MIA @ PHI6:40 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park76°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.5% carry
CF3 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity90%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1011 mb
Air density1.173 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jakob MarseeMIAT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +1.8% over normal 1.29x · ATS
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-0.9% over normal 0.96x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
SF @ CLE6:40 PMProgressive Fieldpitcher-friendly park70°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.2% carry
CF5 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity59%
Wind5 mph
Pressure990 mb
Air density1.166 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryce EldridgeSFT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.0% over normal 1.28x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
STL @ CIN6:40 PMGreat American Ball Parkhitter-friendly park73°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.9% carry
CF2 mph
Temp73°F
Humidity56%
Wind2 mph
Pressure997 mb
Air density1.167 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Blaze JordanSTLT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.4% over normal 1.49x · ATS
+season barrel rate, −lineup slot
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
SD @ NYM7:10 PMCiti Fieldneutral park74°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.3% carry
CF4 mph
Temp74°F
Humidity94%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Air density1.178 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jackson MerrillSDT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +5.8% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+SP career HR rate, +SP strikeout rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +7.4% over normal 1.57x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Francisco AlvarezNYMT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.0% over normal 1.27x · ELEVATED
+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Ty FranceSDT3 · Solid
we say 18% +3.5% over normal 1.24x · ELEVATED
+SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Bo BichetteNYMT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.0% over normal 1.55x · ELEVATED
−pull tendency, +SP fly balls allowed
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Christopher MorelNYMT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.8% over normal 1.68x · SLEEPERS
+career barrel rate, +pull tendency
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Luis RengifoSDT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.1% over normal 1.65x · SLEEPERS
+SP career HR rate, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Zach Thornton
lineup expected to homer 1.35 times vs 1.05 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
2 HR allowed
AZ @ BOS7:10 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park68°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.2% carry
CF4 mph
Temp68°F
Humidity94%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Air density1.194 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Willson ContrerasBOST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +4.1% over normal 1.20x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Wilyer AbreuBOST2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.3% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED · ATS
+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Lars NootbaarAZT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +3.9% over normal 1.94x · SLEEPERS
+pull tendency, −SP career HR rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
ATL @ MIN7:40 PMTarget Fieldhitter-friendly park68°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.3% carry
CF6 mph
Temp68°F
Humidity49%
Wind6 mph
Pressure984 mb
Air density1.164 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Mike YastrzemskiATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +9.2% over normal 1.83x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Austin RileyATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +7.4% over normal 1.68x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Trevor LarnachMINT4 · The Field
we say 13% +3.4% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.7% over normal 0.97x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
7 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Tyler Mahle
lineup expected to homer 1.12 times vs 1.23 normally · MOUND
lean suppression
1 HR allowed
SEA @ MIL7:40 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park67°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.8% carry
CF6 mph
Temp67°F
Humidity83%
Wind6 mph
Pressure989 mb
Air density1.171 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

William ContrerasMILT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.3% over normal 1.31x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Andrew VaughnMILT4 · The Field
we say 12% +5.4% over normal 1.78x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, +recent barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Victor RoblesSEAT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +3.1% over normal 1.62x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −season hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
ATH @ KC7:40 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park75°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.4% carry
CF10 mph
Temp75°F
Humidity71%
Wind10 mph
Pressure980 mb
Air density1.140 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Henry BolteATHT4 · The Field
we say 11% +2.1% over normal 1.23x · ATS
−park factor, −recent fly-ball rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
WSH @ TEX8:05 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park91°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.0% carry
CF8 mph
Temp91°F
Humidity33%
Wind8 mph
Pressure992 mb
Air density1.123 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Brady HouseWSHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.7% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CWS @ CHC8:05 PMWrigley Fieldneutral park71°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.1% carry
CF4 mph
Temp71°F
Humidity90%
Wind4 mph
Pressure992 mb
Air density1.162 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Braden MontgomeryCWST5 · Longshot
we say 9% +0.7% over normal 1.08x · ATS
−career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-3.0% over normal 0.89x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Kevin Gausman
lineup expected to homer 1.13 times vs 1.32 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
LAA @ HOU8:10 PMDaikin Parkhitter-friendly park80°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.0% carry
CF6 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity82%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Air density1.167 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Josh LoweLAAT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.4% over normal 1.27x · ELEVATED · ATS
+SP fly balls allowed, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.1% over normal 1.05x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
LAD @ COL8:40 PMCoors Fieldneutral park69°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.7% carry
CF3 mph
Temp69°F
Humidity60%
Wind3 mph
Pressure845 mb
Air density0.994 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle TuckerLADT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.9% over normal 1.44x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Connor NorbyCOLT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.7% over normal 1.60x · SLEEPERS
+career barrel rate, +season barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Shohei OhtaniLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.5% over normal 1.02x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data