Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-07-31

2026-07-31

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

Pass shown: confirmed, morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.

← 2026-07-30 all nights 2026-08-01 →

ELEVATED

Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Jac Caglianone	KC	T2 · Power Bat	0.231	0.134	1.72x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Tyler O'Neill	BAL	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.109	1.93x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	not yet graded
Riley Greene	DET	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.150	1.35x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Salvador Perez	KC	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.164	1.23x	+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Kyle Stowers	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.142	1.35x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
Carter Jensen	KC	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.144	1.30x	+SP career barrels allowed, +SP strikeout rate	HOME RUN
Ronald Acuña Jr.	ATL	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.143	1.28x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Ty France	SD	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.141	1.29x	+SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	T3 · Solid	0.178	0.101	1.77x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Michael Conforto	CHC	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.117	1.51x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Henry Davis	PIT	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.119	1.34x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	no
Garrett Mitchell	MIL	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.105	1.36x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	no
Austin Riley	ATL	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.097	1.45x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Kevin McGonigle	DET	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.092	1.52x	+park factor, +lineup slot	HOME RUN
Randal Grichuk	CWS	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.096	1.40x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	not yet graded

Section that night: 3 home runs against 1.65 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

SLEEPERS

Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Jeff McNeil	ATH	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.059	2.38x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	no
Jakob Marsee	MIA	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.067	1.99x	+season hard-hit rate, +park factor	no
Isaac Collins	KC	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.077	1.60x	+SP career barrels allowed, +SP strikeout rate	no
Hunter Feduccia	TB	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.057	2.07x	+season barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	no
Petey Halpin	CLE	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.078	1.51x	+SP strikeout rate, +season fly-ball rate	not yet graded
Leody Taveras	BAL	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.076	1.55x	+park factor, +lineup slot	no
Lars Nootbaar	STL	T5 · Longshot	0.089	0.052	1.70x	−SP career HR rate, +pull tendency	no

Section that night: 0 home runs against 0.39 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

AROUND SLATE

One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Jac Caglianone	KC	T2 · Power Bat	0.231	0.134	1.72x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Tyler O'Neill	BAL	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.109	1.93x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	not yet graded
Kyle Stowers	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.142	1.35x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	T3 · Solid	0.178	0.101	1.77x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Michael Conforto	CHC	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.117	1.51x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Josh Bell	MIN	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.128	1.24x	+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
Henry Davis	PIT	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.119	1.34x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	no
Garrett Mitchell	MIL	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.105	1.36x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	no
Jeff McNeil	ATH	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.059	2.38x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	no
Austin Riley	ATL	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.097	1.45x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Wilyer Abreu	BOS	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.126	1.11x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Brandon Nimmo	TEX	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.097	1.38x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Hunter Feduccia	TB	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.057	2.07x	+season barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	no
Petey Halpin	CLE	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.078	1.51x	+SP strikeout rate, +season fly-ball rate	not yet graded
Lars Nootbaar	STL	T5 · Longshot	0.089	0.052	1.70x	−SP career HR rate, +pull tendency	no

Section that night: 1 home run against 1.33 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

FAVORITES

Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Munetaka Murakami	CWS	T1 · Slugger	0.291	0.260	1.12x	+SP strikeout rate, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Kyle Schwarber	PHI	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.252	0.95x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
Yordan Alvarez	HOU	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.248	0.97x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Junior Caminero	TB	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.250	0.97x	+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate	HOME RUN
Ben Rice	NYY	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.246	0.98x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Nick Kurtz	ATH	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.204	1.18x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	no
Jac Caglianone	KC	T2 · Power Bat	0.231	0.134	1.72x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Esmerlyn Valdez	PIT	T2 · Power Bat	0.231	0.262	0.88x	+park factor, −SP strikeout rate	no
Cal Raleigh	SEA	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.199	1.14x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
Kyle Stowers	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.142	1.61x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Pete Alonso	BAL	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.211	1.07x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN

Section that night: 4 home runs against 2.41 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

MOUND SUPPRESS

The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.

Pitcher	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Hunter Brown	T1 · Slugger	1.177	1.285	0.92x	lean suppression	1 HR allowed
Paul Skenes	T1 · Slugger	1.084	1.289	0.84x	strong suppression spot	2 HR allowed
Bradgley Rodriguez	T1 · Slugger	0.897	1.031	0.87x	strong suppression spot	0 HR allowed

Section that night: 3 home runs against 3.60 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

MOUND VULN

The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.

Pitcher	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Tomoyuki Sugano		T1 · Slugger	1.433	1.162	1.23x	vulnerable spot — hitters' night	1 HR allowed

Section that night: 1 home run against 1.16 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data