Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-24

2026-08-24

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

10games
33picks
Byron Buxtontop pick · 25%
Final results
ELEVATED1 of 10 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
SLEEPERS0 of 6 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.4.
AROUND SLATE1 of 13 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
FAVORITES1 of 10 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS1 home runs allowed across 3 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 3 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN3 home runs allowed across 3 starts. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

BOS @ MIA6:40 PMloanDepot parkpitcher-friendly park80°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.5% carry
CF5 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity77%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.170 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

6pm87°66% rh6mph1% rain
7pm85°68% rh7mph2% rain
8pm82°74% rh4mph2% rain
9pm81°75% rh3mph1% rain
10pm80°77% rh5mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Connor WongBOST5 · Longshot
we say 9% +2.4% over normal 1.37x · SLEEPERS
−park factor, −SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Kyle StowersMIAT3 · Solid
we say 16% +2.1% over normal 1.15x · ATS
+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
TB @ DET6:40 PMComerica Parkpitcher-friendly park69°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.5% carry
CF3 mph
Temp69°F
Humidity62%
Wind3 mph
Pressure996 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.173 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm74°51% rh8mph0% rain
7pm72°56% rh5mph0% rain
8pm71°59% rh2mph0% rain
9pm70°63% rh3mph1% rain
10pm69°62% rh3mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jorge MateoTBT4 · The Field
we say 10% +1.0% over normal 1.10x · ATS
−SP career HR rate, −career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +-4.3% over normal 0.82x · FAVORITES
−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Drew Rasmussen
lineup expected to homer 0.83 times vs 0.98 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
COL @ WSH6:45 PMNationals Parkneutral park69°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.8% carry
CF4 mph
Temp69°F
Humidity53%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1017 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.199 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm82°43% rh6mph5% rain
7pm77°48% rh6mph2% rain
8pm73°51% rh6mph0% rain
9pm70°54% rh6mph0% rain
10pm69°53% rh4mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Dylan CrewsWSHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.3% over normal 1.26x · ELEVATED · ATS
+SP strikeout rate, +recent barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Connor NorbyCOLT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.0% over normal 1.41x · SLEEPERS
+career barrel rate, +park factor
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Troy JohnstonCOLT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +1.9% over normal 1.32x · SLEEPERS
+pull tendency, −career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Abimelec OrtizWSHT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +1.2% over normal 1.06x · FAVORITES
+season hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate
4 home runs in his last 14 games
no
Ryan Feltner
lineup expected to homer 0.81 times vs 0.69 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
TEX @ CWS7:40 PMRate Fieldneutral park65°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.9% carry
CF7 mph
Temp65°F
Humidity63%
Wind7 mph
Pressure997 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.184 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm68°67% rh8mph0% rain
8pm66°66% rh8mph0% rain
9pm66°67% rh8mph0% rain
10pm66°63% rh7mph0% rain
11pm65°63% rh7mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Brandon NimmoTEXT4 · The Field
we say 12% +1.8% over normal 1.17x · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-2.4% over normal 0.91x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Joc PedersonTEXT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +1.2% over normal 1.06x · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Colson MontgomeryCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +-3.5% over normal 0.84x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CLE @ LAA9:38 PMAngel Stadiumhitter-friendly park72°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.4% carry
CF3 mph
Temp72°F
Humidity91%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1009 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.178 kg/m³

Open-air park.

9pm74°82% rh6mph1% rain
10pm74°83% rh5mph1% rain
11pm73°91% rh4mph1% rain
12am74°75% rh2mph0% rain
1am74°70% rh2mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

José RamírezCLET2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +8.3% over normal 1.80x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+park factor, +pull tendency
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Brayan RocchioCLET4 · The Field
we say 10% +2.3% over normal 1.28x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Travis d'ArnaudLAAT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.1% over normal 1.36x · SLEEPERS
−SP career barrels allowed, +recent barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Angel GenaoCLET4 · The Field
we say 12% +2.5% over normal 1.26x · ATS
+park factor, −recent fly-ball rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Jo AdellCLET2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +2.2% over normal 1.14x · FAVORITES
+SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Parker Messick
lineup expected to homer 1.10 times vs 1.30 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
George Klassen
lineup expected to homer 1.32 times vs 1.14 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
PHI @ SEA9:40 PMT-Mobile Parkneutral park63°F, wind 1 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.2% carry
CF1 mph
Temp63°F
Humidity67%
Wind1 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.209 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

9pm67°70% rh3mph0% rain
10pm66°68% rh3mph0% rain
11pm65°66% rh3mph0% rain
12am64°70% rh2mph0% rain
1am63°72% rh2mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

J.T. RealmutoPHIT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.3% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-2.3% over normal 0.90x · FAVORITES
+season hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
PIT @ SD9:40 PMPetco Parkneutral park70°F, wind 1 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.3% carry
CF1 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity95%
Wind1 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.188 kg/m³

Open-air park.

9pm72°87% rh2mph1% rain
10pm72°90% rh2mph1% rain
11pm71°93% rh3mph1% rain
12am73°90% rh2mph0% rain
1am71°92% rh1mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.2% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Bryan ReynoldsPITT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.0% over normal 1.45x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent barrel rate, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Nick YorkePITT4 · The Field
we say 10% +2.7% over normal 1.36x · SLEEPERS
−pull tendency, +SP fly balls allowed
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Nick GonzalesPITT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +4.1% over normal 1.81x · SLEEPERS
+lineup slot, +platoon edge
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Esmerlyn ValdezPITT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +1.1% over normal 1.05x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Robbie Ray
lineup expected to homer 0.98 times vs 0.88 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
MIN @ ATH9:40 PMSutter Health Parkhitter-friendly park65°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT -0.5% carry
CF7 mph
Temp65°F
Humidity64%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.206 kg/m³

Open-air park.

9pm75°45% rh8mph0% rain
10pm72°47% rh8mph0% rain
11pm69°53% rh7mph0% rain
12am66°65% rh6mph0% rain
1am64°70% rh6mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Royce LewisMINT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.3% over normal 1.26x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Lawrence ButlerATHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.3% over normal 1.26x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Donovan WaltonATHT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.7% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Jeff McNeilATHT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +2.9% over normal 1.47x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Byron BuxtonMINT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +0.9% over normal 1.04x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
CHC @ AZ9:40 PMChase Fieldpitcher-friendly park86°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.1% carry
CF3 mph
Temp86°F
Humidity27%
Wind3 mph
Pressure971 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.110 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

9pm94°20% rh4mph1% rain
10pm91°22% rh1mph1% rain
11pm90°23% rh3mph1% rain
12am96°21% rh4mph0% rain
1am93°27% rh5mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHCT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +3.4% over normal 1.18x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Alex BregmanCHCT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.3% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED
+SP strikeout rate, +park factor
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Lars NootbaarAZT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +3.7% over normal 1.87x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−park factor, +pull tendency
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
CIN @ SF9:45 PMOracle Parkpitcher-friendly park58°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.2% carry
CF8 mph
Temp58°F
Humidity100%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1016 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.223 kg/m³

Open-air park.

9pm58°97% rh13mph0% rain
10pm58°99% rh12mph0% rain
11pm58°100% rh10mph1% rain
12am60°89% rh6mph0% rain
1am59°91% rh6mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Tyler StephensonCINT3 · Solid
we say 14% +0.8% over normal 1.06x · ATS
−park factor, +recent barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Chase Burns
lineup expected to homer 0.81 times vs 1.02 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
1 HR allowed
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data