Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-24

2026-08-24

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

10games
26picks
Byron Buxtontop pick · 25%
BOS @ MIA6:40 PMloanDepot parkpitcher-friendly park81°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.6% carry
CF4 mph
Temp81°F
Humidity75%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.169 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

6pm88°60% rh8mph2% rain
7pm86°63% rh7mph2% rain
8pm83°68% rh4mph3% rain
9pm82°72% rh4mph1% rain
10pm81°75% rh4mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Connor WongBOST5 · Longshot
we say 9% +2.4% over normal 1.37x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−park factor, −SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
TB @ DET6:40 PMComerica Parkpitcher-friendly park70°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.7% carry
CF4 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity57%
Wind4 mph
Pressure996 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.173 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm75°43% rh8mph1% rain
7pm74°44% rh6mph1% rain
8pm73°47% rh3mph1% rain
9pm72°48% rh1mph1% rain
10pm70°57% rh4mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jonathan ArandaTBT4 · The Field
we say 13% +0.8% over normal 1.07x · ATS
−park factor, −SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +-4.3% over normal 0.82x · FAVORITES
−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Drew Rasmussen
lineup expected to homer 0.73 times vs 0.90 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
no grade — game not played
Framber Valdez
lineup expected to homer 0.68 times vs 0.88 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
no grade — game not played
COL @ WSH6:45 PMNationals Parkneutral park72°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.1% carry
CF4 mph
Temp72°F
Humidity55%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1017 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.193 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm83°37% rh6mph4% rain
7pm80°42% rh7mph1% rain
8pm76°43% rh6mph1% rain
9pm73°48% rh4mph0% rain
10pm72°55% rh4mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Dylan CrewsWSHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.3% over normal 1.26x · ELEVATED · ATS
+SP strikeout rate, +recent barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Connor NorbyCOLT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.0% over normal 1.41x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Abimelec OrtizWSHT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +1.2% over normal 1.06x · FAVORITES
+season hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate
4 home runs in his last 14 games
no grade — game not played
Ryan Feltner
lineup expected to homer 0.81 times vs 0.69 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
no grade — game not played
TEX @ CWS7:40 PMRate Fieldneutral park65°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.2% carry
CF6 mph
Temp65°F
Humidity68%
Wind6 mph
Pressure997 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.184 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm68°66% rh6mph0% rain
8pm66°68% rh6mph0% rain
9pm65°68% rh6mph0% rain
10pm65°68% rh6mph0% rain
11pm65°68% rh6mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jake BurgerTEXT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +2.4% over normal 1.15x · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-2.4% over normal 0.91x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Colson MontgomeryCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +-3.5% over normal 0.84x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
CLE @ LAA9:38 PMAngel Stadiumhitter-friendly park71°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.0% carry
CF2 mph
Temp71°F
Humidity90%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1009 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.182 kg/m³

Open-air park.

9pm74°78% rh4mph1% rain
10pm73°82% rh4mph1% rain
11pm72°86% rh4mph1% rain
12am72°86% rh3mph1% rain
1am71°90% rh2mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Brayan RocchioCLET4 · The Field
we say 10% +2.3% over normal 1.28x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Angel GenaoCLET4 · The Field
we say 12% +2.5% over normal 1.26x · ATS
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Jo AdellCLET2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +2.2% over normal 1.14x · FAVORITES
+SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
PHI @ SEA9:40 PMT-Mobile Parkneutral park63°F, wind 1 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.1% carry
CF1 mph
Temp63°F
Humidity62%
Wind1 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.208 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

9pm67°65% rh4mph0% rain
10pm66°63% rh5mph0% rain
11pm65°64% rh3mph0% rain
12am64°64% rh2mph0% rain
1am63°62% rh1mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

J.T. RealmutoPHIT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.3% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-2.3% over normal 0.90x · FAVORITES
+season hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
PIT @ SD9:40 PMPetco Parkneutral park69°F, wind 1 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.0% carry
CF1 mph
Temp69°F
Humidity95%
Wind1 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.191 kg/m³

Open-air park.

9pm71°92% rh4mph1% rain
10pm70°94% rh3mph1% rain
11pm70°97% rh3mph1% rain
12am69°98% rh2mph1% rain
1am69°95% rh1mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.2% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Bryan ReynoldsPITT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.0% over normal 1.45x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent barrel rate, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Nick YorkePITT4 · The Field
we say 10% +2.7% over normal 1.36x · SLEEPERS
−pull tendency, +SP fly balls allowed
1 home run in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Nick GonzalesPITT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +4.1% over normal 1.81x · SLEEPERS
+lineup slot, +platoon edge
No home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Esmerlyn ValdezPITT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +1.1% over normal 1.05x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
MIN @ ATH9:40 PMSutter Health Parkhitter-friendly park64°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT -1.4% carry
CF6 mph
Temp64°F
Humidity63%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.207 kg/m³

Open-air park.

9pm74°41% rh8mph0% rain
10pm71°48% rh8mph0% rain
11pm68°54% rh7mph0% rain
12am66°60% rh6mph1% rain
1am64°63% rh6mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Royce LewisMINT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.3% over normal 1.26x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Lawrence ButlerATHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.3% over normal 1.26x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Byron BuxtonMINT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +0.9% over normal 1.04x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
CHC @ AZ9:40 PMChase Fieldpitcher-friendly park91°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.8% carry
CF6 mph
Temp91°F
Humidity27%
Wind6 mph
Pressure971 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density1.100 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

9pm97°20% rh5mph1% rain
10pm96°23% rh8mph1% rain
11pm94°26% rh7mph1% rain
12am93°27% rh8mph1% rain
1am91°27% rh6mph2% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHCT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +3.4% over normal 1.18x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Alex BregmanCHCT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.3% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED
+SP strikeout rate, +park factor
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Seiya SuzukiCHCT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +0.4% over normal 1.02x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +park factor
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
CIN @ SF9:45 PMOracle Parkpitcher-friendly park57°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.1% carry
CF9 mph
Temp57°F
Humidity97%
Wind9 mph
Pressure1016 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.227 kg/m³

Open-air park.

9pm58°97% rh12mph0% rain
10pm58°100% rh11mph0% rain
11pm58°100% rh10mph0% rain
12am57°100% rh9mph0% rain
1am57°97% rh9mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Tyler StephensonCINT4 · The Field
we say 13% +0.2% over normal 1.01x · ATS
−park factor, +recent barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Chase Burns
lineup expected to homer 0.81 times vs 1.02 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
no grade — game not played
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-23. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data