Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-09-01

2026-09-01

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
34picks
Munetaka Murakamitop pick · 29%
Final results
ELEVATED2 of 13 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS0 of 4 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.2.
AROUND SLATE1 of 13 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
FAVORITES0 of 9 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS2 home runs allowed across 4 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 4 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN4 home runs allowed across 1 start. A typical night for those lineups is 0.8 — which is what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

STL @ LAD10:10 PMUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadiumhitter-friendly park59°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.7% carry
CF4 mph
Temp59°F
Humidity88%
Wind4 mph
Pressure996 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.197 kg/m³

Open-air park.

10pm63°74% rh4mph0% rain
11pm62°78% rh4mph0% rain
12am64°77% rh4mph0% rain
1am62°82% rh5mph0% rain
2am61°89% rh4mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Nolan GormanSTLT2 · Power Bat
we say 22% +11.3% over normal 2.03x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Teoscar HernándezLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +5.6% over normal 1.45x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Kyle TuckerLADT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.5% over normal 1.46x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +park factor
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Miguel RojasLADT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.6% over normal 1.52x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Shohei OhtaniLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.9% over normal 1.04x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Eric Lauer
lineup expected to homer 1.06 times vs 0.83 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
4 HR allowed
NYM @ TB6:40 PMTropicana Fieldneutral park77°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.0% carry
CF4 mph
Temp77°F
Humidity88%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Rain chance39%
Air density1.172 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

6pm78°89% rh15mph46% rain
7pm77°87% rh1mph54% rain
8pm77°89% rh3mph48% rain
9pm77°88% rh4mph47% rain
10pm77°88% rh4mph39% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Brett BatyNYMT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.2% over normal 1.43x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Sean Manaea
lineup expected to homer 0.74 times vs 0.89 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
SF @ PIT6:40 PMPNC Parkpitcher-friendly park79°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.1% carry
CF2 mph
Temp79°F
Humidity76%
Wind2 mph
Pressure988 mb
Rain chance16%
Air density1.141 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm88°59% rh12mph5% rain
7pm86°60% rh9mph9% rain
8pm82°68% rh4mph3% rain
9pm80°75% rh3mph11% rain
10pm79°76% rh2mph16% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryan ReynoldsPITT4 · The Field
we say 12% +1.3% over normal 1.12x · ATS
−SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Paul Skenes
lineup expected to homer 0.86 times vs 1.05 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
TOR @ CLE6:40 PMProgressive Fieldpitcher-friendly park82°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.1% carry
CF5 mph
Temp82°F
Humidity68%
Wind5 mph
Pressure990 mb
Rain chance4%
Air density1.137 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm88°64% rh11mph2% rain
7pm88°59% rh8mph2% rain
8pm85°63% rh4mph2% rain
9pm83°65% rh3mph4% rain
10pm82°68% rh5mph4% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +1.8% over normal 1.26x · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Gavin Williams
lineup expected to homer 0.73 times vs 0.95 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
0 HR allowed
SD @ CIN6:40 PMGreat American Ball Parkhitter-friendly park83°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.8% carry
CF2 mph
Temp83°F
Humidity49%
Wind2 mph
Pressure997 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.144 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm96°34% rh4mph0% rain
7pm94°36% rh4mph0% rain
8pm90°37% rh2mph0% rain
9pm86°41% rh3mph0% rain
10pm83°49% rh2mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Elly De La CruzCINT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +4.6% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +SP barrels allowed
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Héctor RodríguezCINT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.6% over normal 1.25x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +lineup slot
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT3 · Solid
we say 18% +4.3% over normal 1.32x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Juan BritoCINT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.3% over normal 1.47x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +pull tendency
No home runs in his last 14 games
no
Edwin ArroyoCINT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +5.1% over normal 2.24x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, −lineup slot
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Sal StewartCINT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-0.2% over normal 0.99x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
ATL @ WSH6:45 PMNationals Parkneutral park86°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.3% carry
CF5 mph
Temp86°F
Humidity55%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1013 mb
Rain chance14%
Air density1.154 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm96°38% rh9mph1% rain
7pm93°41% rh5mph1% rain
8pm90°46% rh5mph8% rain
9pm88°50% rh4mph11% rain
10pm86°55% rh5mph14% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Ronald Acuña Jr.ATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +3.5% over normal 1.23x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.9% over normal 1.59x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.2% over normal 0.99x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
SEA @ BOS6:45 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park64°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.4% carry
CF2 mph
Temp64°F
Humidity94%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Rain chance4%
Air density1.211 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm64°93% rh3mph28% rain
7pm64°93% rh3mph14% rain
8pm64°93% rh2mph8% rain
9pm64°92% rh1mph5% rain
10pm64°94% rh2mph4% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Cal RaleighSEAT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +4.8% over normal 1.25x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Connor WongBOST4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.1% over normal 1.64x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +SP workload
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Roman AnthonyBOST4 · The Field
we say 10% +5.8% over normal 2.25x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
DET @ MIN7:40 PMTarget Fieldhitter-friendly park76°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.4% carry
CF4 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity59%
Wind4 mph
Pressure983 mb
Rain chance4%
Air density1.143 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm84°43% rh3mph4% rain
8pm80°44% rh4mph4% rain
9pm78°50% rh3mph2% rain
10pm76°56% rh4mph2% rain
11pm76°59% rh4mph4% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Colt KeithDETT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.0% over normal 1.62x · SLEEPERS
−SP career HR rate, −recent fly-ball rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Trevor LarnachMINT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.2% over normal 1.29x · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
MIA @ KC7:40 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park86°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.1% carry
CF7 mph
Temp86°F
Humidity38%
Wind7 mph
Pressure983 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.123 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm98°24% rh9mph0% rain
8pm92°27% rh5mph0% rain
9pm89°31% rh6mph0% rain
10pm87°35% rh7mph0% rain
11pm86°38% rh7mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle StowersMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +5.0% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, −park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Jac CaglianoneKCT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.7% over normal 1.25x · ELEVATED
−park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
MIL @ CHC7:40 PMWrigley Fieldneutral park79°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.3% carry
CF6 mph
Temp79°F
Humidity78%
Wind6 mph
Pressure992 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density1.143 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm87°59% rh6mph2% rain
8pm84°67% rh6mph2% rain
9pm81°73% rh6mph3% rain
10pm80°77% rh6mph3% rain
11pm79°78% rh6mph2% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

William ContrerasMILT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.0% over normal 1.55x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Robert Gasser
lineup expected to homer 1.10 times vs 1.31 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
ATH @ TEX8:05 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park89°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.3% carry
CF8 mph
Temp89°F
Humidity47%
Wind8 mph
Pressure994 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.126 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

8pm94°38% rh6mph2% rain
9pm92°40% rh4mph1% rain
10pm90°45% rh5mph1% rain
11pm90°46% rh5mph2% rain
12am88°52% rh11mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Henry BolteATHT4 · The Field
we say 10% +2.1% over normal 1.26x · ATS
−recent fly-ball rate, +recent hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
CWS @ HOU8:10 PMDaikin Parkhitter-friendly park78°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.7% carry
CF2 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity85%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1013 mb
Rain chance9%
Air density1.170 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

8pm80°80% rh1mph8% rain
9pm77°87% rh3mph6% rain
10pm77°88% rh4mph5% rain
11pm77°84% rh5mph5% rain
12am78°89% rh4mph6% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Munetaka MurakamiCWST1 · Slugger
we say 29% +3.6% over normal 1.15x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +2.0% over normal 1.09x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Colson MontgomeryCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-0.5% over normal 0.98x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
BAL @ COL8:40 PMCoors Fieldneutral park68°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.6% carry
CF5 mph
Temp68°F
Humidity42%
Wind5 mph
Pressure841 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density0.995 kg/m³

Open-air park.

8pm79°28% rh7mph3% rain
9pm75°34% rh5mph2% rain
10pm74°34% rh3mph1% rain
11pm71°38% rh4mph1% rain
12am67°45% rh4mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Connor NorbyCOLT4 · The Field
we say 10% +2.5% over normal 1.32x · ATS
−SP career HR rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
NYY @ LAA9:38 PMAngel Stadiumhitter-friendly park64°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -2.4% carry
CF3 mph
Temp64°F
Humidity78%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.203 kg/m³

Open-air park.

9pm69°65% rh5mph0% rain
10pm68°70% rh3mph0% rain
11pm66°72% rh2mph0% rain
12am67°74% rh2mph0% rain
1am67°77% rh4mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Cody BellingerNYYT4 · The Field
we say 13% +3.4% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.6% over normal 1.07x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
PHI @ AZ9:40 PMChase Fieldpitcher-friendly park85°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.1% carry
CF4 mph
Temp85°F
Humidity42%
Wind4 mph
Pressure972 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.112 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

9pm90°29% rh2mph2% rain
10pm88°30% rh1mph1% rain
11pm87°32% rh2mph5% rain
12am94°32% rh6mph2% rain
1am92°34% rh2mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Tim TawaAZT3 · Solid
we say 14% +1.5% over normal 1.11x · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, −SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-2.5% over normal 0.89x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data