Sparrow Data
2026-07-30
The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.
Pass shown: confirmed — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.
← 2026-07-29 all nights 2026-07-31 →
ELEVATED
Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh | SEA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.199 | 1.21x | +park factor, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Julio Rodríguez | SEA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.168 | 1.25x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | no |
| Jac Caglianone | KC | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.127 | 1.65x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| Wilyer Abreu | BOS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.191 | 0.119 | 1.60x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| Bryce Eldridge | SF | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.143 | 1.31x | −park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Mike Yastrzemski | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.121 | 1.50x | +recent hard-hit rate, +park factor | not yet graded |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.135 | 1.35x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| Heliot Ramos | SF | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.125 | 1.46x | +recent barrel rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Carter Jensen | KC | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.145 | 1.26x | +SP strikeout rate, +SP career HR rate | no |
| Teoscar Hernández | LAD | T3 · Solid | 0.176 | 0.126 | 1.40x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| Ryan McMahon | NYY | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.111 | 1.44x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.101 | 1.58x | +career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate | no |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.122 | 1.30x | +park factor, −SP career HR rate | no |
| Kyle Tucker | LAD | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.097 | 1.47x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Brett Baty | NYM | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.108 | 1.32x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
Section that night: 4 home runs against 1.83 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
SLEEPERS
Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Schuemann | NYY | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.067 | 1.75x | +recent barrel rate, −career barrel rate | not yet graded |
| Luis Rengifo | SD | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.066 | 1.58x | +SP career HR rate, −recent fly-ball rate | no |
| Romy Gonzalez | BOS | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.074 | 1.41x | −pull tendency, +SP fly balls allowed | not yet graded |
| Hunter Feduccia | TB | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.057 | 1.82x | +recent barrel rate, +season barrel rate | no |
| Lars Nootbaar | STL | T5 · Longshot | 0.086 | 0.053 | 1.64x | −park factor, +recent barrel rate | no |
Section that night: 0 home runs against 0.18 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
AROUND SLATE
One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jac Caglianone | KC | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.127 | 1.65x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| Wilyer Abreu | BOS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.191 | 0.119 | 1.60x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| Mike Yastrzemski | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.121 | 1.50x | +recent hard-hit rate, +park factor | not yet graded |
| Teoscar Hernández | LAD | T3 · Solid | 0.176 | 0.126 | 1.40x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.101 | 1.58x | +career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate | no |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.122 | 1.30x | +park factor, −SP career HR rate | no |
| Brett Baty | NYM | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.108 | 1.32x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Max Schuemann | NYY | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.067 | 1.75x | +recent barrel rate, −career barrel rate | not yet graded |
| Hunter Feduccia | TB | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.057 | 1.82x | +recent barrel rate, +season barrel rate | no |
| Lars Nootbaar | STL | T5 · Longshot | 0.086 | 0.053 | 1.64x | −park factor, +recent barrel rate | no |
Section that night: 3 home runs against 0.81 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
FAVORITES
Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.209 | 1.15x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAD | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.244 | 0.99x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | not yet graded |
| Cal Raleigh | SEA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.199 | 1.21x | +park factor, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | PIT | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.267 | 0.90x | −SP career HR rate, +park factor | no |
| Munetaka Murakami | CWS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.263 | 0.92x | +season hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| James Wood | WSH | T2 · Power Bat | 0.226 | 0.208 | 1.09x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Ben Rice | NYY | T2 · Power Bat | 0.226 | 0.246 | 0.92x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Julio Rodríguez | SEA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.168 | 1.25x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | no |
| Junior Caminero | TB | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.250 | 0.84x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Jac Caglianone | KC | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.127 | 1.65x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
Section that night: 1 home run against 1.94 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
MOUND SUPPRESS
The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yohan Ramírez | T1 · Slugger | 1.098 | 1.292 | 0.85x | strong suppression spot | 0 HR allowed | |
| Cole Winn | T1 · Slugger | 0.981 | 1.069 | 0.92x | lean suppression | 0 HR allowed | |
| Andre Pallante | T1 · Slugger | 0.963 | 1.139 | 0.84x | strong suppression spot | 0 HR allowed |
Section that night: 0 home runs against 3.50 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
MOUND VULN
The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Barnett | T1 · Slugger | 1.403 | 1.205 | 1.16x | vulnerable spot — hitters' night | 2 HR allowed |
Section that night: 2 home runs against 1.21 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.