Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-07-30

2026-07-30

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

10games
27picks
Munetaka Murakamitop pick · 24%
Final results
ELEVATED4 of 14 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS0 of 3 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.2.
AROUND SLATE3 of 8 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.8.
FAVORITES1 of 9 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS0 home runs allowed across 3 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 3 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN2 home runs allowed across 1 start. A typical night for those lineups is 1 — which is what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

SEA @ LAD10:10 PMUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadiumhitter-friendly park77°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.1% carry
CF8 mph
Temp77°F
Humidity67%
Wind8 mph
Pressure992 mb
Air density1.150 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Cal RaleighSEAT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +4.2% over normal 1.21x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Julio RodríguezSEAT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +4.2% over normal 1.25x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Teoscar HernándezLADT3 · Solid
we say 18% +5.0% over normal 1.40x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Kyle TuckerLADT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.6% over normal 1.47x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Shohei OhtaniLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.3% over normal 0.99x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
TEX @ TB12:10 PMTropicana Fieldneutral park84°F, wind 12 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.1% carry
CF12 mph
Temp84°F
Humidity95%
Wind12 mph
Pressure1015 mb
Air density1.155 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Hunter FeducciaTBT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.7% over normal 1.82x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+recent barrel rate, +season barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-3.9% over normal 0.84x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Cole Winn
lineup expected to homer 0.98 times vs 1.07 normally · MOUND
lean suppression
0 HR allowed
KC @ MIN1:40 PMTarget Fieldhitter-friendly park84°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +2.3% carry
CF10 mph
Temp84°F
Humidity64%
Wind10 mph
Pressure986 mb
Air density1.125 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jac CaglianoneKCT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +8.3% over normal 1.65x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Carter JensenKCT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.8% over normal 1.26x · ELEVATED
+SP strikeout rate, +SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
NYY @ CWS2:10 PMRate Fieldneutral park78°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.4% carry
CF7 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity75%
Wind7 mph
Pressure997 mb
Air density1.152 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Ryan McMahonNYYT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.9% over normal 1.44x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Max SchuemannNYYT4 · The Field
we say 12% +5.0% over normal 1.75x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+recent barrel rate, −career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-2.2% over normal 0.92x · FAVORITES
+season hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-2.0% over normal 0.92x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CHC @ STL2:15 PMBusch Stadiumpitcher-friendly park85°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.6% carry
CF3 mph
Temp85°F
Humidity56%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1000 mb
Air density1.141 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Lars NootbaarSTLT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +3.4% over normal 1.64x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−park factor, +recent barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Andre Pallante
lineup expected to homer 0.96 times vs 1.14 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
MIA @ NYM7:10 PMCiti Fieldneutral park73°F, wind 1 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.5% carry
CF1 mph
Temp73°F
Humidity86%
Wind1 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Air density1.179 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Brett BatyNYMT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.4% over normal 1.32x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
PIT @ CIN7:10 PMGreat American Ball Parkhitter-friendly park84°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.3% carry
CF3 mph
Temp84°F
Humidity44%
Wind3 mph
Pressure998 mb
Air density1.144 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryan ReynoldsPITT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.7% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Esmerlyn ValdezPITT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-2.6% over normal 0.90x · FAVORITES
−SP career HR rate, +park factor
7 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Yohan Ramírez
lineup expected to homer 1.10 times vs 1.29 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
WSH @ ATL7:15 PMTruist Parkhitter-friendly park85°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.5% carry
CF8 mph
Temp85°F
Humidity43%
Wind8 mph
Pressure977 mb
Air density1.116 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Mike YastrzemskiATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +6.1% over normal 1.50x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Ronald Acuña Jr.ATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.7% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +3.2% over normal 1.15x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
James WoodWSHT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +1.8% over normal 1.09x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
SF @ SD9:40 PMPetco Parkneutral park76°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.8% carry
CF6 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity77%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Air density1.175 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryce EldridgeSFT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.5% over normal 1.31x · ELEVATED
−park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Heliot RamosSFT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +5.7% over normal 1.46x · ELEVATED
+recent barrel rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.9% over normal 1.58x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Luis RengifoSDT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.8% over normal 1.58x · SLEEPERS
+SP career HR rate, −recent fly-ball rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
BOS @ ATH9:40 PMSutter Health Parkhitter-friendly park96°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +5.9% carry
CF9 mph
Temp96°F
Humidity21%
Wind9 mph
Pressure1009 mb
Air density1.135 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Wilyer AbreuBOST2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +7.2% over normal 1.60x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Romy GonzalezBOST4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.0% over normal 1.41x · SLEEPERS
−pull tendency, +SP fly balls allowed
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Mason Barnett
lineup expected to homer 1.40 times vs 1.21 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
2 HR allowed
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data