Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-17

2026-08-17

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

11games
33picks
Munetaka Murakamitop pick · 29%
Final results
ELEVATED4 of 14 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS0 of 5 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.3.
AROUND SLATE1 of 9 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
FAVORITES3 of 11 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS3 home runs allowed across 3 starts. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.
MOUND VULN2 home runs allowed across 1 start. A typical night for those lineups is 1 — which is what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

STL @ CIN1:40 PMGreat American Ball Parkhitter-friendly park84°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.7% carry
CF10 mph
Temp84°F
Humidity71%
Wind10 mph
Pressure996 mb
Air density1.136 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Alec BurlesonSTLT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.5% over normal 1.23x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Michael TogliaCINT4 · The Field
we say 13% +3.8% over normal 1.39x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Ke'Bryan HayesCINT4 · The Field
we say 13% +5.1% over normal 1.61x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Blaze JordanSTLT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.5% over normal 1.62x · SLEEPERS
+SP career HR rate, +season barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Masyn WinnSTLT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +3.7% over normal 1.88x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Eugenio SuárezCINT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +1.9% over normal 1.10x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
BAL @ TB6:05 PMTropicana Fieldneutral park82°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.2% carry
CF5 mph
Temp82°F
Humidity86%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1016 mb
Air density1.163 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jonathan ArandaTBT3 · Solid
we say 14% +1.2% over normal 1.09x · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-3.5% over normal 0.85x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
MIA @ PHI6:40 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park78°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.3% carry
CF4 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity88%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1009 mb
Air density1.163 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Luis ArraezPHIT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.5% over normal 1.44x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
J.T. RealmutoPHIT3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.9% over normal 1.26x · ATS
+park factor, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.7% over normal 1.03x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Bryce HarperPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +1.7% over normal 1.09x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
STL @ CIN6:40 PMGreat American Ball Parkhitter-friendly park73°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.8% carry
CF4 mph
Temp73°F
Humidity88%
Wind4 mph
Pressure996 mb
Air density1.161 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Alec BurlesonSTLT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.5% over normal 1.23x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
JJ WetherholtSTLT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.9% over normal 1.32x · ELEVATED
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Jimmy CrooksSTLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.1% over normal 1.55x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
DET @ PIT7:05 PMPNC Parkpitcher-friendly park71°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.8% carry
CF4 mph
Temp71°F
Humidity87%
Wind4 mph
Pressure986 mb
Air density1.155 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Colt KeithDETT4 · The Field
we say 10% +2.5% over normal 1.31x · ATS
−SP career HR rate, −SP career barrels allowed
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Framber Valdez
lineup expected to homer 0.89 times vs 1.02 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
SD @ NYM7:10 PMCiti Fieldneutral park71°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +0.3% carry
CF3 mph
Temp71°F
Humidity93%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Air density1.182 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.1% over normal 1.24x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Brett BatyNYMT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.2% over normal 1.48x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
AZ @ BOS7:10 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park70°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +0.4% carry
CF3 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity89%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Air density1.186 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Willson ContrerasBOST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +4.6% over normal 1.24x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Wilyer AbreuBOST2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +5.1% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED · ATS
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
ATL @ MIN7:40 PMTarget Fieldhitter-friendly park71°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.4% carry
CF4 mph
Temp71°F
Humidity60%
Wind4 mph
Pressure984 mb
Air density1.155 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Mike YastrzemskiATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +7.2% over normal 1.65x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Austin RileyATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +7.3% over normal 1.67x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +0.6% over normal 1.03x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
8 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Byron BuxtonMINT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-1.0% over normal 0.96x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Drake BaldwinATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +3.4% over normal 1.20x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
ATH @ KC7:40 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park76°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.9% carry
CF5 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity48%
Wind5 mph
Pressure986 mb
Air density1.147 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jac CaglianoneKCT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.5% over normal 1.24x · ELEVATED · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Michael Wacha
lineup expected to homer 0.77 times vs 0.89 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
3 HR allowed
CWS @ CHC8:05 PMWrigley Fieldneutral park66°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.5% carry
CF6 mph
Temp66°F
Humidity89%
Wind6 mph
Pressure995 mb
Air density1.177 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Randal GrichukCWST3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.3% over normal 1.44x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Jake RogersCWST4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.7% over normal 1.43x · SLEEPERS
+career barrel rate, +pull tendency
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST1 · Slugger
we say 29% +1.7% over normal 1.06x · FAVORITES
+season hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
LAD @ COL8:40 PMCoors Fieldneutral park74°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.3% carry
CF5 mph
Temp74°F
Humidity30%
Wind5 mph
Pressure843 mb
Air density0.988 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Shohei OhtaniLADT1 · Slugger
we say 28% +5.0% over normal 1.22x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Max MuncyLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +7.1% over normal 1.42x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Kyle TuckerLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +9.2% over normal 1.83x · ELEVATED · ATS
+SP career barrels allowed, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Tommy EdmanLADT4 · The Field
we say 12% +2.8% over normal 1.31x · SLEEPERS
+SP career barrels allowed, −career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Blake Snell
lineup expected to homer 0.90 times vs 1.06 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
Tomoyuki Sugano
lineup expected to homer 1.32 times vs 1.06 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
2 HR allowed
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data