Sparrow Data
Board archive — 2026-08-17
2026-08-17
The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.
Pass shown: confirmed, morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.
ELEVATED
Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | LAD | T1 · Slugger | 0.280 | 0.231 | 1.22x | +SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate | no grade — game not played |
| Willson Contreras | BOS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.195 | 1.24x | +SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Max Muncy | LAD | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.170 | 1.42x | +SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate | no grade — game not played |
| Kyle Tucker | LAD | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.111 | 1.83x | +SP career barrels allowed, +career barrel rate | no grade — game not played |
| Wilyer Abreu | BOS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.151 | 1.34x | +SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate | no grade — game not played |
| Mike Yastrzemski | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.111 | 1.65x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate | no grade — game not played |
| Austin Riley | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.109 | 1.67x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Alec Burleson | STL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.148 | 1.23x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Alec Burleson | STL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.148 | 1.23x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Jac Caglianone | KC | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.148 | 1.24x | −park factor, +career barrel rate | no grade — game not played |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.129 | 1.24x | +career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate | no grade — game not played |
| Brett Baty | NYM | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.108 | 1.48x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| JJ Wetherholt | STL | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.121 | 1.32x | +park factor, −SP career HR rate | no grade — game not played |
| Jimmy Crooks | STL | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.092 | 1.55x | +park factor, −SP career HR rate | no grade — game not played |
| Randal Grichuk | CWS | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.097 | 1.44x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Michael Toglia | CIN | T4 · The Field | 0.134 | 0.097 | 1.39x | +career barrel rate, +park factor | no grade — game not played |
SLEEPERS
Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | CIN | T4 · The Field | 0.134 | 0.083 | 1.61x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | no grade — game not played |
| Jake Rogers | CWS | T4 · The Field | 0.121 | 0.085 | 1.43x | +career barrel rate, +pull tendency | no grade — game not played |
| Blaze Jordan | STL | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.072 | 1.62x | +SP career HR rate, +season barrel rate | no grade — game not played |
| Tommy Edman | LAD | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.089 | 1.31x | +SP career barrels allowed, −career barrel rate | no grade — game not played |
| Luis Arraez | PHI | T5 · Longshot | 0.080 | 0.056 | 1.44x | +park factor, −season hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Masyn Winn | STL | T5 · Longshot | 0.080 | 0.043 | 1.88x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | no grade — game not played |
AROUND SLATE
One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Tucker | LAD | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.111 | 1.83x | +SP career barrels allowed, +career barrel rate | no grade — game not played |
| Wilyer Abreu | BOS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.151 | 1.34x | +SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate | no grade — game not played |
| Austin Riley | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.109 | 1.67x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Jac Caglianone | KC | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.148 | 1.24x | −park factor, +career barrel rate | no grade — game not played |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.129 | 1.24x | +career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate | no grade — game not played |
| Jonathan Aranda | TB | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.132 | 1.09x | +career hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate | no grade — game not played |
| Jimmy Crooks | STL | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.092 | 1.55x | +park factor, −SP career HR rate | no grade — game not played |
| Randal Grichuk | CWS | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.097 | 1.44x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| J.T. Realmuto | PHI | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.112 | 1.26x | +park factor, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | CIN | T4 · The Field | 0.134 | 0.083 | 1.61x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | no grade — game not played |
| Colt Keith | DET | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.080 | 1.31x | −SP career HR rate, −SP career barrels allowed | no grade — game not played |
FAVORITES
Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munetaka Murakami | CWS | T1 · Slugger | 0.291 | 0.273 | 1.06x | +season hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate | no grade — game not played |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAD | T1 · Slugger | 0.280 | 0.231 | 1.22x | +SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate | no grade — game not played |
| Matt Olson | ATL | T1 · Slugger | 0.255 | 0.248 | 1.03x | +SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate | no grade — game not played |
| Willson Contreras | BOS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.195 | 1.24x | +SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Max Muncy | LAD | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.170 | 1.42x | +SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate | no grade — game not played |
| Byron Buxton | MIN | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.251 | 0.96x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.234 | 1.03x | +park factor, +SP strikeout rate | no grade — game not played |
| Eugenio Suárez | CIN | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.192 | 1.10x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | no grade — game not played |
| Drake Baldwin | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.176 | 1.20x | +SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Bryce Harper | PHI | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.186 | 1.09x | +park factor, +SP strikeout rate | no grade — game not played |
| Junior Caminero | TB | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.238 | 0.85x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
MOUND SUPPRESS
The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Snell | T1 · Slugger | 0.900 | 1.059 | 0.85x | strong suppression spot | no grade — game not played | |
| Framber Valdez | T1 · Slugger | 0.893 | 1.024 | 0.87x | strong suppression spot | no grade — game not played | |
| Michael Wacha | T1 · Slugger | 0.771 | 0.887 | 0.87x | strong suppression spot | no grade — game not played |
MOUND VULN
The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomoyuki Sugano | T1 · Slugger | 1.320 | 1.057 | 1.25x | vulnerable spot — hitters' night | no grade — game not played |
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data