Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-09-02

2026-09-02

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
35picks
Munetaka Murakamitop pick · 25%
Final results
ELEVATED2 of 13 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS1 of 5 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.3.
AROUND SLATE4 of 11 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
FAVORITES0 of 10 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS2 home runs allowed across 5 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 6 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN0 home runs allowed across 1 start. A typical night for those lineups is 1 — which is not what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

STL @ LAD10:10 PMUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadiumhitter-friendly park62°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.2% carry
CF4 mph
Temp62°F
Humidity86%
Wind4 mph
Pressure994 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.189 kg/m³

Open-air park.

10pm65°81% rh3mph0% rain
11pm64°85% rh2mph0% rain
12am65°76% rh4mph0% rain
1am65°72% rh5mph0% rain
2am63°74% rh4mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Will SmithLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +6.6% over normal 1.54x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Freddie FreemanLADT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.0% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Kyle TuckerLADT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.2% over normal 1.43x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Shohei OhtaniLADT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +2.4% over normal 1.10x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
SD @ CIN12:40 PMGreat American Ball Parkhitter-friendly park97°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.8% carry
CF8 mph
Temp97°F
Humidity40%
Wind8 mph
Pressure998 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.115 kg/m³

Open-air park.

12pm90°60% rh5mph0% rain
1pm93°55% rh8mph0% rain
2pm93°53% rh8mph1% rain
3pm95°43% rh7mph0% rain
4pm97°40% rh8mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jackson MerrillSDT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +3.8% over normal 1.22x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.7% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Xander BogaertsSDT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.3% over normal 1.61x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Edwin ArroyoCINT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +4.0% over normal 1.99x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −lineup slot
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
ATL @ WSH1:05 PMNationals Parkneutral park82°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.1% carry
CF6 mph
Temp82°F
Humidity76%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1015 mb
Rain chance11%
Air density1.165 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm88°68% rh5mph1% rain
2pm85°73% rh12mph4% rain
3pm77°90% rh2mph30% rain
4pm80°83% rh7mph26% rain
5pm82°76% rh6mph11% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Andrés ChaparroWSHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.5% over normal 1.38x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 16% +6.0% over normal 1.60x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Mike YastrzemskiATLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.9% over normal 1.73x · SLEEPERS
+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
James WoodWSHT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +0.0% over normal 1.00x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-3.2% over normal 0.87x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
ATH @ TEX2:35 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park98°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.9% carry
CF10 mph
Temp98°F
Humidity35%
Wind10 mph
Pressure991 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density1.106 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

2pm97°40% rh6mph1% rain
3pm97°41% rh8mph1% rain
4pm99°35% rh8mph1% rain
5pm98°38% rh9mph3% rain
6pm98°35% rh10mph2% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Henry BolteATHT4 · The Field
we say 10% +2.6% over normal 1.33x · ATS
−recent fly-ball rate, +SP strikeout rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
BAL @ COL3:10 PMCoors Fieldneutral park85°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +1.3% carry
CF7 mph
Temp85°F
Humidity19%
Wind7 mph
Pressure841 mb
Rain chance5%
Air density0.965 kg/m³

Open-air park.

3pm90°17% rh6mph2% rain
4pm90°16% rh9mph4% rain
5pm88°18% rh11mph4% rain
6pm87°18% rh9mph6% rain
7pm85°19% rh7mph5% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Samuel BasalloBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +5.3% over normal 1.31x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +SP career barrels allowed
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Gunnar HendersonBALT3 · Solid
we say 17% +4.3% over normal 1.33x · ELEVATED
+SP career barrels allowed, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Dylan BeaversBALT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.0% over normal 1.45x · ELEVATED
−career hard-hit rate, +SP career barrels allowed
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Pete AlonsoBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +2.4% over normal 1.11x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Christian Encarnacion-StrandBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +2.2% over normal 1.12x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +park factor
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Trevor Rogers
lineup expected to homer 0.95 times vs 1.11 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
Tomoyuki Sugano
lineup expected to homer 1.42 times vs 1.16 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
0 HR allowed
PHI @ AZ3:40 PMChase Fieldpitcher-friendly park80°F, wind 23 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.8% carry
CF23 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity65%
Wind23 mph
Pressure970 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.117 kg/m³

Roof CLOSED — the forecast below does not reach the field.

3pm102°26% rh10mph1% rain
4pm102°24% rh9mph1% rain
5pm102°24% rh9mph1% rain
6pm100°27% rh7mph1% rain
7pm80°65% rh23mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Tim TawaAZT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.3% over normal 1.26x · ELEVATED
+recent barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Lars NootbaarAZT4 · The Field
we say 12% +6.3% over normal 2.17x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−park factor, +recent barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.6% over normal 1.02x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
SEA @ BOS4:10 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park66°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.9% carry
CF5 mph
Temp66°F
Humidity79%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.211 kg/m³

Open-air park.

4pm71°65% rh11mph0% rain
5pm70°67% rh10mph0% rain
6pm68°73% rh10mph0% rain
7pm67°76% rh8mph0% rain
8pm66°79% rh5mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Wilyer AbreuBOST2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.4% over normal 1.32x · ELEVATED
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Roman AnthonyBOST4 · The Field
we say 12% +7.1% over normal 2.52x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Patrick Sandoval
lineup expected to homer 0.99 times vs 1.21 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
NYM @ TB6:40 PMTropicana Fieldneutral park78°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.8% carry
CF9 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity91%
Wind9 mph
Pressure1013 mb
Rain chance41%
Air density1.169 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

6pm82°81% rh1mph36% rain
7pm80°86% rh5mph37% rain
8pm77°90% rh6mph38% rain
9pm77°90% rh9mph45% rain
10pm78°91% rh9mph41% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Brett BatyNYMT4 · The Field
we say 13% +3.6% over normal 1.36x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
SF @ PIT6:40 PMPNC Parkpitcher-friendly park81°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.7% carry
CF4 mph
Temp81°F
Humidity68%
Wind4 mph
Pressure989 mb
Rain chance17%
Air density1.135 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm92°45% rh11mph7% rain
7pm90°51% rh9mph7% rain
8pm86°60% rh5mph10% rain
9pm83°64% rh6mph16% rain
10pm81°68% rh4mph17% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Christian KossSFT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.6% over normal 1.48x · ATS
−park factor, +recent barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Landen Roupp
lineup expected to homer 0.94 times vs 1.11 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
TOR @ CLE6:40 PMProgressive Fieldpitcher-friendly park84°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.2% carry
CF7 mph
Temp84°F
Humidity58%
Wind7 mph
Pressure990 mb
Rain chance7%
Air density1.133 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm93°47% rh7mph4% rain
7pm92°48% rh8mph6% rain
8pm87°55% rh3mph9% rain
9pm85°53% rh7mph7% rain
10pm84°58% rh7mph7% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +2.0% over normal 1.29x · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Joey Cantillo
lineup expected to homer 0.75 times vs 0.94 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
1 HR allowed
DET @ MIN7:40 PMTarget Fieldhitter-friendly park76°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.7% carry
CF4 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity59%
Wind4 mph
Pressure980 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density1.140 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm87°40% rh2mph2% rain
8pm82°47% rh4mph3% rain
9pm80°52% rh4mph2% rain
10pm78°56% rh4mph1% rain
11pm76°59% rh3mph2% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Riley GreeneDETT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.7% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
MIA @ KC7:40 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park86°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.1% carry
CF6 mph
Temp86°F
Humidity39%
Wind6 mph
Pressure982 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.120 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm97°26% rh9mph0% rain
8pm92°30% rh6mph0% rain
9pm89°33% rh7mph0% rain
10pm88°37% rh7mph0% rain
11pm86°39% rh6mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle StowersMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.2% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, −park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
MIL @ CHC7:40 PMWrigley Fieldneutral park79°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.8% carry
CF5 mph
Temp79°F
Humidity76%
Wind5 mph
Pressure991 mb
Rain chance3%
Air density1.143 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm88°52% rh7mph1% rain
8pm85°58% rh7mph2% rain
9pm82°64% rh6mph2% rain
10pm80°71% rh5mph3% rain
11pm79°76% rh5mph3% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

William ContrerasMILT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.2% over normal 1.36x · ATS
−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jacob Misiorowski
lineup expected to homer 1.04 times vs 1.34 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
1 HR allowed
CWS @ HOU8:10 PMDaikin Parkhitter-friendly park81°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.3% carry
CF5 mph
Temp81°F
Humidity83%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Rain chance7%
Air density1.162 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

8pm82°74% rh10mph14% rain
9pm82°80% rh8mph11% rain
10pm81°81% rh9mph17% rain
11pm81°82% rh5mph11% rain
12am83°84% rh6mph11% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Randal GrichukCWST3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.0% over normal 1.23x · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Munetaka MurakamiCWST1 · Slugger
we say 25% +0.7% over normal 1.03x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.6% over normal 1.07x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
NYY @ LAA9:38 PMAngel Stadiumhitter-friendly park65°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.9% carry
CF3 mph
Temp65°F
Humidity81%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1008 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.198 kg/m³

Open-air park.

9pm70°64% rh3mph0% rain
10pm68°75% rh4mph0% rain
11pm67°80% rh4mph0% rain
12am66°81% rh3mph0% rain
1am65°81% rh3mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Austin WellsNYYT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.4% over normal 1.38x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.7% over normal 1.08x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data