Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-09-15

2026-09-15

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
34picks
Ben Ricetop pick · 25%
Final results
ELEVATED4 of 13 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS0 of 5 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.4.
AROUND SLATE3 of 13 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
FAVORITES4 of 9 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS3 home runs allowed across 4 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 4 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN2 home runs allowed across 1 start. A typical night for those lineups is 1 — which is what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

ATH @ TB6:40 PMTropicana Fieldneutral park79°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.0% carry
CF10 mph
Temp79°F
Humidity85%
Wind10 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Rain chance12%
Air density1.173 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

6pm83°82% rh10mph42% rain
7pm81°83% rh7mph37% rain
8pm80°85% rh10mph27% rain
9pm79°85% rh11mph18% rain
10pm79°85% rh10mph12% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jonathan ArandaTBT3 · Solid
we say 16% +1.6% over normal 1.11x · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +lineup slot
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
MIL @ PIT6:40 PMPNC Parkpitcher-friendly park70°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.9% carry
CF3 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity76%
Wind3 mph
Pressure996 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.171 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm79°60% rh2mph0% rain
7pm77°65% rh4mph0% rain
8pm72°70% rh5mph0% rain
9pm70°74% rh3mph0% rain
10pm70°76% rh3mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Christian YelichMILT4 · The Field
we say 13% +3.2% over normal 1.31x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jake BauersMILT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +0.7% over normal 1.03x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CWS @ CLE6:40 PMProgressive Fieldpitcher-friendly park75°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.6% carry
CF8 mph
Temp75°F
Humidity60%
Wind8 mph
Pressure997 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.161 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm85°39% rh12mph1% rain
7pm81°44% rh11mph1% rain
8pm78°51% rh11mph1% rain
9pm76°56% rh11mph1% rain
10pm75°60% rh8mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

José RamírezCLET3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.2% over normal 1.42x · ELEVATED · ATS
−park factor, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.1% over normal 1.00x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
LAD @ CIN6:40 PMGreat American Ball Parkhitter-friendly park81°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.4% carry
CF3 mph
Temp81°F
Humidity49%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1003 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.155 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm94°37% rh7mph0% rain
7pm91°39% rh4mph0% rain
8pm87°41% rh5mph0% rain
9pm83°46% rh4mph1% rain
10pm81°49% rh3mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Teoscar HernándezLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +5.7% over normal 1.46x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Kyle TuckerLADT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.2% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Hunter FeducciaLADT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.9% over normal 1.71x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Rhett Lowder
lineup expected to homer 1.26 times vs 1.06 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
2 HR allowed
PHI @ WSH6:45 PMNationals Parkneutral park68°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -2.3% carry
CF5 mph
Temp68°F
Humidity57%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1026 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.213 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm77°40% rh4mph0% rain
7pm74°48% rh6mph0% rain
8pm71°54% rh6mph0% rain
9pm69°56% rh6mph0% rain
10pm68°57% rh5mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

J.T. RealmutoPHIT4 · The Field
we say 12% +2.4% over normal 1.24x · ATS
−SP HR rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-1.2% over normal 0.95x · FAVORITES
+pull tendency, +season hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Cristopher Sánchez
lineup expected to homer 0.95 times vs 1.17 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
DET @ TOR7:07 PMRogers Centreneutral park65°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.1% carry
CF4 mph
Temp65°F
Humidity90%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Rain chance8%
Air density1.201 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

7pm70°64% rh5mph13% rain
8pm66°84% rh3mph44% rain
9pm66°85% rh4mph28% rain
10pm65°89% rh4mph16% rain
11pm65°90% rh4mph8% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.6% over normal 1.53x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Drew Anderson
lineup expected to homer 0.84 times vs 1.02 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
BAL @ NYM7:10 PMCiti Fieldneutral park62°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT -1.6% carry
CF6 mph
Temp62°F
Humidity73%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1027 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.228 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm67°56% rh6mph0% rain
8pm65°60% rh5mph0% rain
9pm63°67% rh5mph0% rain
10pm63°71% rh6mph0% rain
11pm62°73% rh6mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Brett BatyNYMT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.5% over normal 1.45x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Jared YoungNYMT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.1% over normal 1.41x · ELEVATED
+SP strikeout rate, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Pete AlonsoBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-1.2% over normal 0.95x · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
NYY @ MIN7:40 PMTarget Fieldhitter-friendly park57°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -2.7% carry
CF3 mph
Temp57°F
Humidity69%
Wind3 mph
Pressure992 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.200 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm67°46% rh6mph0% rain
8pm63°55% rh5mph0% rain
9pm60°62% rh4mph0% rain
10pm58°66% rh2mph0% rain
11pm57°69% rh3mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Spencer JonesNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +5.0% over normal 1.36x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Cody BellingerNYYT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.4% over normal 1.32x · ELEVATED
+lineup slot, −career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Aaron JudgeNYYT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +1.6% over normal 1.07x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Ben RiceNYYT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +1.7% over normal 1.07x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Max Fried
lineup expected to homer 0.85 times vs 1.02 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
ATL @ CHC7:40 PMWrigley Fieldneutral park68°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.1% carry
CF5 mph
Temp68°F
Humidity91%
Wind5 mph
Pressure999 mb
Rain chance30%
Air density1.178 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm74°85% rh3mph10% rain
8pm71°90% rh5mph11% rain
9pm69°93% rh5mph11% rain
10pm69°94% rh4mph20% rain
11pm68°91% rh5mph30% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 15% +4.8% over normal 1.46x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Mike YastrzemskiATLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.5% over normal 1.65x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, +pull tendency
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-2.0% over normal 0.91x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
SF @ STL7:45 PMBusch Stadiumpitcher-friendly park79°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.0% carry
CF3 mph
Temp79°F
Humidity86%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1002 mb
Rain chance36%
Air density1.155 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm81°68% rh10mph15% rain
8pm81°78% rh7mph11% rain
9pm81°82% rh3mph17% rain
10pm79°89% rh3mph21% rain
11pm79°86% rh3mph36% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Nolan GormanSTLT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.5% over normal 1.39x · ELEVATED
−park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Thomas SaggeseSTLT4 · The Field
we say 10% +1.4% over normal 1.16x · ATS
−park factor, +recent barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Andre Pallante
lineup expected to homer 0.65 times vs 0.90 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
2 HR allowed
BOS @ TEX8:05 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park88°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.0% carry
CF10 mph
Temp88°F
Humidity50%
Wind10 mph
Pressure996 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.130 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

8pm94°33% rh7mph0% rain
9pm92°36% rh8mph0% rain
10pm90°46% rh10mph0% rain
11pm90°47% rh9mph0% rain
12am89°49% rh8mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Wilyer AbreuBOST2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.7% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jahmai JonesBOST3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.0% over normal 1.32x · ELEVATED
+SP career HR rate, +lineup slot
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Roman AnthonyBOST3 · Solid
we say 16% +7.2% over normal 1.83x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
KC @ HOU8:10 PMDaikin Parkhitter-friendly park81°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.3% carry
CF4 mph
Temp81°F
Humidity87%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1016 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.164 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

8pm84°74% rh7mph1% rain
9pm83°82% rh5mph1% rain
10pm82°85% rh5mph1% rain
11pm82°85% rh5mph1% rain
12am81°89% rh4mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jac CaglianoneKCT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.0% over normal 1.28x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Daulton VarshoHOUT4 · The Field
we say 13% +3.3% over normal 1.32x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +season fly-ball rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
LaMonte Wade Jr.HOUT4 · The Field
we say 13% +4.2% over normal 1.46x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +0.7% over normal 1.03x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
SD @ COL8:40 PMCoors Fieldneutral park62°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT -0.8% carry
CF5 mph
Temp62°F
Humidity50%
Wind5 mph
Pressure843 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.009 kg/m³

Open-air park.

8pm69°39% rh4mph4% rain
9pm67°42% rh11mph3% rain
10pm64°45% rh6mph2% rain
11pm64°47% rh1mph2% rain
12am61°48% rh1mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +6.7% over normal 1.50x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Connor NorbyCOLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.6% over normal 1.67x · SLEEPERS
+career barrel rate, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
SEA @ LAA9:38 PMAngel Stadiumhitter-friendly park68°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.2% carry
CF5 mph
Temp68°F
Humidity91%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1008 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.188 kg/m³

Open-air park.

9pm71°78% rh6mph0% rain
10pm70°80% rh7mph0% rain
11pm69°84% rh6mph0% rain
12am68°78% rh2mph0% rain
1am69°73% rh4mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Cal RaleighSEAT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +6.0% over normal 1.33x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
MIA @ AZ9:40 PMChase Fieldpitcher-friendly park87°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.2% carry
CF5 mph
Temp87°F
Humidity54%
Wind5 mph
Pressure973 mb
Rain chance23%
Air density1.104 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

9pm92°40% rh7mph3% rain
10pm90°47% rh9mph4% rain
11pm89°51% rh8mph6% rain
12am92°40% rh3mph2% rain
1am90°45% rh3mph3% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Lars NootbaarAZT4 · The Field
we say 12% +5.6% over normal 1.84x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−park factor, +recent barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data