Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-07-24

2026-07-24

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

Pass shown: confirmed, morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.

← 2026-07-23 all nights 2026-07-25 →

ELEVATED

Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Jake Bauers	MIL	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.185	1.23x	+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Kyle Stowers	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.126	1.79x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Spencer Torkelson	DET	T2 · Power Bat	0.201	0.168	1.19x	+SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate	no
Francisco Alvarez	NYM	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.153	1.23x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Rhys Hoskins	CLE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.148	1.24x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Andrés Chaparro	WSH	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.111	1.65x	+season hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Spencer Jones	NYY	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.111	1.65x	+season hard-hit rate, +park factor	not yet graded
Bryce Eldridge	SF	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.141	1.29x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	no
Teoscar Hernández	LAD	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.141	1.25x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Christian Yelich	MIL	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.123	1.30x	+SP strikeout rate, +park factor	HOME RUN
Austin Riley	ATL	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.113	1.42x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	no
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.106	1.51x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	no
Garrett Mitchell	MIL	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.111	1.44x	+season hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	no
Jared Young	NYM	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.128	1.25x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
Heriberto Hernández	MIA	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.126	1.26x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
Dylan Crews	WSH	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.117	1.36x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
Wilyer Abreu	BOS	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.122	1.25x	+recent barrel rate, +career barrel rate	no

Section that night: 4 home runs against 2.12 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

SLEEPERS

Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Kyle Tucker	LAD	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.084	1.67x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Willi Castro	COL	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.089	1.39x	−SP career HR rate, +park factor	no
Leody Taveras	BAL	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.070	1.50x	+park factor, −lineup slot	no
Edouard Julien	COL	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.053	1.97x	+career barrel rate, −recent fly-ball rate	not yet graded
Joey Ortiz	MIL	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.062	1.69x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
Miguel Rojas	LAD	T5 · Longshot	0.089	0.060	1.49x	+recent barrel rate, −career barrel rate	no
Lars Nootbaar	STL	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.055	1.47x	−park factor, −SP career HR rate	no

Section that night: 1 home run against 0.42 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

AROUND SLATE

One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Kyle Stowers	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.126	1.79x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Spencer Torkelson	DET	T2 · Power Bat	0.201	0.168	1.19x	+SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate	no
Rhys Hoskins	CLE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.148	1.24x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Andrés Chaparro	WSH	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.111	1.65x	+season hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Bryce Eldridge	SF	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.141	1.29x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	no
Austin Riley	ATL	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.113	1.42x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	no
Josh Bell	MIN	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.128	1.20x	+SP strikeout rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Wilyer Abreu	BOS	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.122	1.25x	+recent barrel rate, +career barrel rate	no
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CHC	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.145	0.99x	+recent hard-hit rate, −SP strikeout rate	HOME RUN
Trea Turner	PHI	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.123	1.14x	+recent hard-hit rate, −SP strikeout rate	no
Kyle Tucker	LAD	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.084	1.67x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Brandon Nimmo	TEX	T4 · The Field	0.124	0.098	1.27x	+recent barrel rate, −SP strikeout rate	no
Edouard Julien	COL	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.053	1.97x	+career barrel rate, −recent fly-ball rate	not yet graded
Sam Antonacci	CWS	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.101	1.03x	+lineup slot, −career hard-hit rate	no
Lars Nootbaar	STL	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.055	1.47x	−park factor, −SP career HR rate	no

Section that night: 2 home runs against 1.66 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

FAVORITES

Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Byron Buxton	MIN	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.255	1.00x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no
Kyle Schwarber	PHI	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.261	0.98x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
Matt Olson	ATL	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.199	1.21x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
Juan Soto	NYM	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.249	0.97x	+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate	not yet graded
Munetaka Murakami	CWS	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.258	0.93x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Shohei Ohtani	LAD	T2 · Power Bat	0.237	0.244	0.97x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Colson Montgomery	CWS	T2 · Power Bat	0.231	0.269	0.86x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Junior Caminero	TB	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.255	0.89x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
Hunter Goodman	COL	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.240	0.95x	−SP career HR rate, +park factor	no
Kyle Stowers	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.126	1.79x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
James Wood	WSH	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.205	1.11x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no

Section that night: 1 home run against 2.31 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

MOUND SUPPRESS

The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.

Pitcher	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Dustin May	T1 · Slugger	1.001	1.282	0.78x	elite suppression spot	1 HR allowed
Tarik Skubal	T1 · Slugger	0.902	1.079	0.84x	strong suppression spot	0 HR allowed
Logan Webb	T1 · Slugger	0.818	1.018	0.80x	strong suppression spot	1 HR allowed

Section that night: 2 home runs against 3.38 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

MOUND VULN

The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.

Pitcher	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Tomoyuki Sugano		T1 · Slugger	1.324	1.091	1.21x	vulnerable spot — hitters' night	2 HR allowed
Germán Márquez		T1 · Slugger	1.133	0.961	1.18x	vulnerable spot — hitters' night	2 HR allowed

Section that night: 4 home runs against 2.05 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data