Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-07-24

2026-07-24

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
39picks
Byron Buxtontop pick · 25%
Final results
ELEVATED4 of 16 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS1 of 6 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.4.
AROUND SLATE2 of 14 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
FAVORITES1 of 10 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS2 home runs allowed across 3 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 3 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN4 home runs allowed across 2 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 2 — which is what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

LAA @ SF10:15 PMOracle Parkpitcher-friendly park65°F, wind 18 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +5.6% carry
CF18 mph
Temp65°F
Humidity76%
Wind18 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Air density1.203 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryce EldridgeSFT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.2% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, −park factor
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Logan Webb
lineup expected to homer 0.82 times vs 1.02 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
COL @ MIL4:10 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park74°F, wind 11 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.5% carry
CF11 mph
Temp74°F
Humidity59%
Wind11 mph
Pressure996 mb
Air density1.161 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jake BauersMILT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +4.2% over normal 1.23x · ELEVATED
+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Christian YelichMILT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.7% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED
+SP strikeout rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Garrett MitchellMILT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.9% over normal 1.44x · ELEVATED
+season hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Willi CastroCOLT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.5% over normal 1.39x · SLEEPERS
−SP career HR rate, +park factor
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Edouard JulienCOLT4 · The Field
we say 10% +5.1% over normal 1.97x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, −recent fly-ball rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Joey OrtizMILT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.3% over normal 1.69x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Hunter GoodmanCOLT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-1.3% over normal 0.95x · FAVORITES
−SP career HR rate, +park factor
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Tomoyuki Sugano
lineup expected to homer 1.32 times vs 1.09 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
2 HR allowed
CHC @ PIT6:40 PMPNC Parkpitcher-friendly park75°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.0% carry
CF6 mph
Temp75°F
Humidity64%
Wind6 mph
Pressure992 mb
Air density1.154 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHCT3 · Solid
we say 14% +-0.2% over normal 0.99x · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, −SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
KC @ DET6:40 PMComerica Parkpitcher-friendly park78°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.8% carry
CF5 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity44%
Wind5 mph
Pressure998 mb
Air density1.156 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Spencer TorkelsonDETT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +3.2% over normal 1.19x · ELEVATED · ATS
+SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Tarik Skubal
lineup expected to homer 0.90 times vs 1.08 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
AZ @ WSH6:45 PMNationals Parkneutral park80°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.0% carry
CF6 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity46%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1020 mb
Air density1.180 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Andrés ChaparroWSHT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +7.2% over normal 1.65x · ELEVATED · ATS
+season hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Dylan CrewsWSHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.2% over normal 1.36x · ELEVATED
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
James WoodWSHT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +2.2% over normal 1.11x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
no
NYY @ PHI6:45 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park80°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.1% carry
CF7 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity47%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1020 mb
Air density1.177 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Spencer JonesNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +7.2% over normal 1.65x · ELEVATED
+season hard-hit rate, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Trea TurnerPHIT3 · Solid
we say 14% +1.7% over normal 1.14x · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, −SP strikeout rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +-0.6% over normal 0.98x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
ATL @ BAL7:05 PMOriole Park at Camden Yardshitter-friendly park77°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.4% carry
CF8 mph
Temp77°F
Humidity49%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1020 mb
Air density1.185 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.7% over normal 1.42x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Leody TaverasBALT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.5% over normal 1.50x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −lineup slot
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +4.2% over normal 1.21x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
CLE @ TB7:10 PMTropicana Fieldneutral park89°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.5% carry
CF8 mph
Temp89°F
Humidity66%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1015 mb
Air density1.148 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Rhys HoskinsCLET2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.5% over normal 1.24x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-2.8% over normal 0.89x · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
LAD @ NYM7:10 PMCiti Fieldneutral park76°F, wind 11 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.3% carry
CF11 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity52%
Wind11 mph
Pressure1021 mb
Air density1.188 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Francisco AlvarezNYMT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +3.5% over normal 1.23x · ELEVATED
+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Teoscar HernándezLADT3 · Solid
we say 18% +3.6% over normal 1.25x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Jared YoungNYMT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.2% over normal 1.25x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Kyle TuckerLADT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.6% over normal 1.67x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Miguel RojasLADT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +2.9% over normal 1.49x · SLEEPERS
+recent barrel rate, −career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Juan SotoNYMT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.8% over normal 0.97x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Shohei OhtaniLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.7% over normal 0.97x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
SD @ MIA7:10 PMloanDepot parkpitcher-friendly park88°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.8% carry
CF9 mph
Temp88°F
Humidity68%
Wind9 mph
Pressure1017 mb
Air density1.150 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle StowersMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +10.0% over normal 1.79x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.4% over normal 1.51x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, −park factor
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Heriberto HernándezMIAT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.3% over normal 1.26x · ELEVATED
−park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Germán Márquez
lineup expected to homer 1.13 times vs 0.96 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
2 HR allowed
TOR @ BOS7:15 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park78°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.8% carry
CF9 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity44%
Wind9 mph
Pressure1021 mb
Air density1.183 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Wilyer AbreuBOST3 · Solid
we say 15% +3.1% over normal 1.25x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent barrel rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
HOU @ CWS7:40 PMRate Fieldneutral park74°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.3% carry
CF10 mph
Temp74°F
Humidity57%
Wind10 mph
Pressure997 mb
Air density1.163 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Sam AntonacciCWST4 · The Field
we say 10% +0.3% over normal 1.03x · ATS
+lineup slot, −career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-1.7% over normal 0.93x · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Colson MontgomeryCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-3.8% over normal 0.86x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
SEA @ TEX8:05 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park94°F, wind 12 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.0% carry
CF12 mph
Temp94°F
Humidity46%
Wind12 mph
Pressure992 mb
Air density1.112 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Brandon NimmoTEXT4 · The Field
we say 12% +2.6% over normal 1.27x · ATS
+recent barrel rate, −SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
ATH @ MIN8:10 PMTarget Fieldhitter-friendly park78°F, wind 12 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +0.6% carry
CF12 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity65%
Wind12 mph
Pressure982 mb
Air density1.136 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Josh BellMINT3 · Solid
we say 15% +2.5% over normal 1.20x · ATS
+SP strikeout rate, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Byron BuxtonMINT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +-0.0% over normal 1.00x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CIN @ STL8:15 PMBusch Stadiumpitcher-friendly park73°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.6% carry
CF4 mph
Temp73°F
Humidity82%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1000 mb
Air density1.167 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Lars NootbaarSTLT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.6% over normal 1.47x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−park factor, −SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Dustin May
lineup expected to homer 1.00 times vs 1.28 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
1 HR allowed
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data