ELEVATED4 of 14 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS0 of 5 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.4.
AROUND SLATE2 of 13 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
FAVORITES1 of 10 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS5 home runs allowed across 4 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 4 — which is not what we called for.
MOUND VULN1 home runs allowed across 1 start. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.
One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.
ATH @ SEA10:10 PMT-Mobile Parkneutral park54°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN-2.6% carry
Temp54°F
Humidity75%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density1.232 kg/m³
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
10pm57°78% rh1mph2% rain
11pm56°78% rh4mph2% rain
12am57°76% rh3mph1% rain
1am56°75% rh3mph1% rain
2am55°80% rh0mph1% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 24%+5.3% over normal1.28x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
WSH @ LAD10:10 PMUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadiumhitter-friendly park62°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND-1.7% carry
Temp62°F
Humidity93%
Wind4 mph
Pressure993 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.186 kg/m³
Open-air park.
10pm65°88% rh1mph0% rain
11pm64°90% rh2mph0% rain
12am66°86% rh2mph0% rain
1am66°82% rh4mph0% rain
2am65°81% rh4mph0% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
lineup expected to homer 0.96 times vs 0.71 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
DET @ CLE2:10 PMProgressive Fieldpitcher-friendly park76°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS IN-0.1% carry
Temp76°F
Humidity86%
Wind9 mph
Pressure990 mb
Rain chance6%
Air density1.147 kg/m³
Open-air park.
2pm74°95% rh4mph60% rain
3pm76°87% rh2mph61% rain
4pm77°88% rh3mph33% rain
5pm77°83% rh8mph14% rain
6pm76°86% rh9mph6% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
MIL @ CIN6:10 PMGreat American Ball Parkhitter-friendly park86°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT+2.6% carry
Temp86°F
Humidity56%
Wind4 mph
Pressure995 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density1.135 kg/m³
Open-air park.
6pm97°37% rh6mph1% rain
7pm95°41% rh5mph1% rain
8pm91°47% rh6mph1% rain
9pm87°54% rh4mph2% rain
10pm86°56% rh4mph2% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
ATL @ PHI6:40 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park76°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — WINDS IN+0.3% carry
Temp76°F
Humidity84%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1011 mb
Rain chance11%
Air density1.169 kg/m³
Open-air park.
6pm81°68% rh6mph3% rain
7pm79°70% rh5mph5% rain
8pm78°75% rh5mph6% rain
9pm77°80% rh5mph10% rain
10pm76°84% rh3mph11% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
BOS @ BAL7:05 PMOriole Park at Camden Yardshitter-friendly park78°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN+0.5% carry
Temp78°F
Humidity77%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1011 mb
Rain chance11%
Air density1.167 kg/m³
Open-air park.
7pm87°49% rh4mph12% rain
8pm84°55% rh4mph9% rain
9pm82°63% rh4mph7% rain
10pm80°76% rh3mph14% rain
11pm78°77% rh5mph11% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
SF @ NYM7:10 PMCiti Fieldneutral park72°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN-0.4% carry
Temp72°F
Humidity63%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.184 kg/m³
Open-air park.
7pm80°46% rh7mph0% rain
8pm77°53% rh4mph0% rain
9pm75°59% rh4mph0% rain
10pm73°64% rh4mph0% rain
11pm72°63% rh5mph1% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
7pm79°91% rh2mph7% rain
8pm79°93% rh0mph7% rain
9pm78°93% rh2mph5% rain
10pm78°92% rh2mph4% rain
11pm78°92% rh3mph4% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
DET @ CLE7:15 PMProgressive Fieldpitcher-friendly park72°F, wind 1 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND+0.7% carry
Temp72°F
Humidity91%
Wind1 mph
Pressure990 mb
Rain chance35%
Air density1.156 kg/m³
Open-air park.
7pm75°88% rh7mph9% rain
8pm73°90% rh4mph9% rain
9pm72°90% rh1mph12% rain
10pm72°90% rh1mph17% rain
11pm72°91% rh1mph35% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
MIN @ CWS7:40 PMRate Fieldneutral park77°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND+1.7% carry
Temp77°F
Humidity94%
Wind2 mph
Pressure991 mb
Rain chance3%
Air density1.146 kg/m³
Open-air park.
7pm88°56% rh6mph3% rain
8pm85°61% rh4mph5% rain
9pm83°69% rh3mph4% rain
10pm77°94% rh7mph5% rain
11pm77°94% rh2mph3% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
TB @ TEX8:05 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park85°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND-0.1% carry
Temp85°F
Humidity54%
Wind8 mph
Pressure991 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.132 kg/m³
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
8pm93°41% rh8mph1% rain
9pm90°45% rh8mph1% rain
10pm88°52% rh9mph1% rain
11pm86°57% rh9mph1% rain
12am87°55% rh7mph0% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
lineup expected to homer 0.63 times vs 0.76 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
TOR @ KC8:10 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park84°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT+2.3% carry
Temp84°F
Humidity44%
Wind4 mph
Pressure981 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.123 kg/m³
Open-air park.
8pm93°37% rh5mph0% rain
9pm90°39% rh6mph0% rain
10pm88°40% rh6mph0% rain
11pm86°42% rh5mph0% rain
12am82°62% rh3mph0% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
AZ @ HOU8:10 PMDaikin Parkhitter-friendly park80°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT+0.8% carry
Temp80°F
Humidity89%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1011 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.161 kg/m³
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
8pm82°85% rh5mph4% rain
9pm81°83% rh5mph2% rain
10pm80°86% rh4mph2% rain
11pm80°87% rh3mph1% rain
12am81°89% rh3mph0% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
lineup expected to homer 0.76 times vs 0.93 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data
