Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-09-10

2026-09-10

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

5games
25picks
Kyle Schwarbertop pick · 28%
Final results
ELEVATED0 of 11 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
SLEEPERS1 of 4 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.2.
AROUND SLATE0 of 5 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.5.
FAVORITES0 of 9 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS2 home runs allowed across 3 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 3 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN2 home runs allowed across 1 start. A typical night for those lineups is 1 — which is what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

TB @ ATL12:15 PMTruist Parkhitter-friendly park90°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +0.7% carry
CF7 mph
Temp90°F
Humidity45%
Wind7 mph
Pressure980 mb
Rain chance3%
Air density1.109 kg/m³

Open-air park.

12pm86°64% rh2mph0% rain
1pm87°59% rh2mph2% rain
2pm87°61% rh3mph2% rain
3pm90°47% rh5mph3% rain
4pm90°45% rh7mph3% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.8% over normal 1.57x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Mike YastrzemskiATLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.7% over normal 1.68x · SLEEPERS
+pull tendency, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.9% over normal 1.04x · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Drake BaldwinATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +3.0% over normal 1.16x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +-3.9% over normal 0.83x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Martín Pérez
lineup expected to homer 0.89 times vs 1.01 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
HOU @ PHI1:05 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park88°F, wind 11 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +2.8% carry
CF11 mph
Temp88°F
Humidity46%
Wind11 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density1.148 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm87°57% rh9mph0% rain
2pm88°55% rh8mph0% rain
3pm88°52% rh10mph0% rain
4pm89°49% rh11mph0% rain
5pm88°46% rh11mph2% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Brandon MarshPHIT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.3% over normal 1.26x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +SP fly balls allowed
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Bryson StottPHIT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.2% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +SP fly balls allowed
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Luis ArraezPHIT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.5% over normal 1.45x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −career hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT1 · Slugger
we say 28% +2.8% over normal 1.11x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-1.1% over normal 0.95x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Zack Wheeler
lineup expected to homer 1.14 times vs 1.25 normally · MOUND
lean suppression
1 HR allowed
TEX @ SEA4:10 PMT-Mobile Parkneutral park62°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.3% carry
CF5 mph
Temp62°F
Humidity71%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.210 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

4pm69°66% rh4mph0% rain
5pm69°65% rh5mph0% rain
6pm68°66% rh6mph0% rain
7pm64°69% rh6mph1% rain
8pm62°71% rh5mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Brandon NimmoTEXT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.5% over normal 1.33x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Cal RaleighSEAT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +1.0% over normal 1.06x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
COL @ NYY7:05 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park77°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.3% carry
CF5 mph
Temp77°F
Humidity64%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1011 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.174 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm83°45% rh5mph0% rain
8pm80°49% rh4mph0% rain
9pm78°54% rh4mph7% rain
10pm79°58% rh3mph2% rain
11pm77°64% rh5mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Spencer JonesNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.1% over normal 1.27x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Austin WellsNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +8.0% over normal 1.74x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Jasson DomínguezNYYT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.6% over normal 1.40x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Cody BellingerNYYT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.0% over normal 1.53x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +pull tendency
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ryan McMahonNYYT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.6% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Anthony VolpeNYYT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +3.7% over normal 1.85x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +playing time
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Jordan BeckCOLT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +1.6% over normal 1.25x · SLEEPERS
−SP career HR rate, +park factor
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.7% over normal 1.08x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Max Fried
lineup expected to homer 0.88 times vs 1.04 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
Ryan Feltner
lineup expected to homer 1.45 times vs 1.14 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
2 HR allowed
PIT @ CWS7:40 PMRate Fieldneutral park66°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.2% carry
CF6 mph
Temp66°F
Humidity79%
Wind6 mph
Pressure994 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.180 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm68°77% rh5mph0% rain
8pm67°76% rh6mph0% rain
9pm67°77% rh5mph0% rain
10pm66°78% rh5mph0% rain
11pm66°79% rh6mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryan ReynoldsPITT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.9% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED
+SP career HR rate, −SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Konnor GriffinPITT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.0% over normal 1.55x · ELEVATED
+SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Nick GonzalesPITT4 · The Field
we say 10% +5.3% over normal 2.04x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+SP career HR rate, +park factor
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.8% over normal 0.97x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Esmerlyn ValdezPITT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +-1.4% over normal 0.93x · FAVORITES
+SP career HR rate, −SP strikeout rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data