Sparrow Data
2026-08-03
The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.
Pass shown: confirmed, morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.
← 2026-08-02 all nights 2026-08-04 →
ELEVATED
Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Wood | WSH | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.207 | 1.17x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Bryce Eldridge | SF | T2 · Power Bat | 0.191 | 0.137 | 1.40x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | not yet graded |
| Jasson Domínguez | NYY | T3 · Solid | 0.176 | 0.113 | 1.55x | +park factor, +pull tendency | no |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | T3 · Solid | 0.174 | 0.122 | 1.43x | +recent barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Ryan McMahon | NYY | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.113 | 1.41x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| Alec Burleson | STL | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.129 | 1.24x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | T4 · The Field | 0.134 | 0.092 | 1.46x | +career barrel rate, +SP fly balls allowed | no |
| Kyle Tucker | LAD | T4 · The Field | 0.134 | 0.097 | 1.37x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
Section that night: 2 home runs against 0.87 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
SLEEPERS
Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Crooks | STL | T4 · The Field | 0.134 | 0.085 | 1.58x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| José Tena | WSH | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.081 | 1.45x | +park factor, +season barrel rate | no |
| Pedro Ramírez | CHC | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.083 | 1.41x | +SP career HR rate, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Lars Nootbaar | STL | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.051 | 2.05x | +park factor, −SP career HR rate | not yet graded |
| Edouard Julien | COL | T5 · Longshot | 0.092 | 0.052 | 1.76x | +career barrel rate, −lineup slot | not yet graded |
| Nick Gonzales | PIT | T5 · Longshot | 0.080 | 0.050 | 1.60x | +park factor, −platoon edge | no |
Section that night: 1 home run against 0.30 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
AROUND SLATE
One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Eldridge | SF | T2 · Power Bat | 0.191 | 0.137 | 1.40x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | not yet graded |
| Jasson Domínguez | NYY | T3 · Solid | 0.176 | 0.113 | 1.55x | +park factor, +pull tendency | no |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | T3 · Solid | 0.174 | 0.122 | 1.43x | +recent barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Ty France | SD | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.140 | 1.14x | +recent hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | T4 · The Field | 0.134 | 0.092 | 1.46x | +career barrel rate, +SP fly balls allowed | no |
| Kyle Tucker | LAD | T4 · The Field | 0.134 | 0.097 | 1.37x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| José Tena | WSH | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.081 | 1.45x | +park factor, +season barrel rate | no |
| Edouard Julien | COL | T5 · Longshot | 0.092 | 0.052 | 1.76x | +career barrel rate, −lineup slot | not yet graded |
Section that night: 0 home runs against 0.65 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
FAVORITES
Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | T1 · Slugger | 0.255 | 0.243 | 1.05x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Ben Rice | NYY | T1 · Slugger | 0.255 | 0.240 | 1.06x | +park factor, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAD | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.250 | 0.97x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Junior Caminero | TB | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.250 | 0.97x | +SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| James Wood | WSH | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.207 | 1.17x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Rafael Devers | SF | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.211 | 1.00x | +SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.251 | 0.84x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | PIT | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.249 | 0.85x | +park factor, −career exit velo | no |
| Christian Walker | HOU | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.195 | 1.04x | +SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Bryce Eldridge | SF | T2 · Power Bat | 0.191 | 0.137 | 1.40x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | not yet graded |
Section that night: 1 home run against 2.09 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
MOUND SUPPRESS
The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Alvarez | T1 · Slugger | 1.056 | 1.290 | 0.82x | strong suppression spot | 2 HR allowed | |
| Michael Lorenzen | T1 · Slugger | 0.780 | 0.849 | 0.92x | lean suppression | 2 HR allowed | |
| Michael King | T1 · Slugger | 0.769 | 0.854 | 0.90x | lean suppression | 1 HR allowed |
Section that night: 5 home runs against 2.99 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
MOUND VULN
The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | T1 · Slugger | 1.055 | 0.943 | 1.12x | vulnerable spot — hitters' night | 2 HR allowed | |
| Cam Schlittler | T1 · Slugger | 1.054 | 0.914 | 1.15x | vulnerable spot — hitters' night | 3 HR allowed |
Section that night: 5 home runs against 1.86 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.