Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-03

2026-08-03

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

8games
23picks
Yordan Alvareztop pick · 25%
Final results
ELEVATED2 of 7 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.9.
SLEEPERS1 of 4 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.3.
AROUND SLATE0 of 6 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.6.
FAVORITES1 of 9 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS5 home runs allowed across 3 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 3 — which is not what we called for.
MOUND VULN5 home runs allowed across 2 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 2 — which is what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

WSH @ PHI6:40 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park74°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.9% carry
CF7 mph
Temp74°F
Humidity80%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1013 mb
Air density1.181 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

James WoodWSHT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +3.4% over normal 1.17x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
José TenaWSHT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.6% over normal 1.45x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, +season barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-4.0% over normal 0.84x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Andrew Alvarez
lineup expected to homer 1.06 times vs 1.29 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
2 HR allowed
Aaron Nola
lineup expected to homer 1.05 times vs 0.94 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
2 HR allowed
STL @ NYY7:05 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park68°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.6% carry
CF6 mph
Temp68°F
Humidity80%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Air density1.195 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jasson DomínguezNYYT3 · Solid
we say 18% +6.2% over normal 1.55x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Ryan McMahonNYYT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.7% over normal 1.41x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Alec BurlesonSTLT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.1% over normal 1.24x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Jimmy CrooksSTLT4 · The Field
we say 13% +4.9% over normal 1.58x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Lars NootbaarSTLT4 · The Field
we say 10% +5.3% over normal 2.05x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Ben RiceNYYT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +1.4% over normal 1.06x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Cam Schlittler
lineup expected to homer 1.05 times vs 0.91 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
3 HR allowed
PIT @ MIL7:40 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park66°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.9% carry
CF3 mph
Temp66°F
Humidity88%
Wind3 mph
Pressure992 mb
Air density1.174 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryan ReynoldsPITT3 · Solid
we say 17% +5.2% over normal 1.43x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Nick GonzalesPITT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +3.0% over normal 1.60x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −platoon edge
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Esmerlyn ValdezPITT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-3.8% over normal 0.85x · FAVORITES
+park factor, −career exit velo
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
SF @ TEX8:05 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park86°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.4% carry
CF7 mph
Temp86°F
Humidity33%
Wind7 mph
Pressure989 mb
Air density1.130 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryce EldridgeSFT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +5.4% over normal 1.40x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Rafael DeversSFT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-0.1% over normal 1.00x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
LAD @ CHC8:05 PMWrigley Fieldneutral park67°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.6% carry
CF6 mph
Temp67°F
Humidity84%
Wind6 mph
Pressure994 mb
Air density1.173 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle TuckerLADT4 · The Field
we say 13% +3.6% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Pedro RamírezCHCT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.4% over normal 1.41x · SLEEPERS
+SP career HR rate, +season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Shohei OhtaniLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.9% over normal 0.97x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
TOR @ HOU8:10 PMDaikin Parkhitter-friendly park79°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.2% carry
CF5 mph
Temp79°F
Humidity81%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Air density1.164 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORT4 · The Field
we say 13% +4.3% over normal 1.46x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +SP fly balls allowed
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Yordan AlvarezHOUT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +1.2% over normal 1.05x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Christian WalkerHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +0.7% over normal 1.04x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
TB @ COL8:40 PMCoors Fieldneutral park75°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -3.4% carry
CF10 mph
Temp75°F
Humidity33%
Wind10 mph
Pressure846 mb
Air density0.988 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Edouard JulienCOLT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +4.0% over normal 1.76x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, −lineup slot
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.9% over normal 0.97x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Michael Lorenzen
lineup expected to homer 0.78 times vs 0.85 normally · MOUND
lean suppression
2 HR allowed
SD @ AZ9:40 PMChase Fieldpitcher-friendly park93°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.5% carry
CF2 mph
Temp93°F
Humidity40%
Wind2 mph
Pressure968 mb
Air density1.088 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Ty FranceSDT3 · Solid
we say 16% +1.9% over normal 1.14x · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Michael King
lineup expected to homer 0.77 times vs 0.85 normally · MOUND
lean suppression
1 HR allowed
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data