Sparrow Data
2026-07-11
The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.
Pass shown: morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.
← 2026-07-10 all nights 2026-07-12 →
ELEVATED
Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Stowers | MIA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.191 | 0.151 | 1.26x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Elly De La Cruz | CIN | T2 · Power Bat | 0.191 | 0.121 | 1.59x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Josh Bell | MIN | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.143 | 1.31x | +SP fly balls allowed, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| Tyler O'Neill | BAL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.151 | 1.24x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Teoscar Hernández | LAD | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.141 | 1.30x | +career barrel rate, +park factor | no |
| Kyle Tucker | LAD | T3 · Solid | 0.176 | 0.091 | 1.94x | +park factor, +pull tendency | no |
| Mike Yastrzemski | ATL | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.116 | 1.38x | −park factor, +season hard-hit rate | not yet graded |
| Garrett Mitchell | MIL | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.123 | 1.30x | +recent barrel rate, −SP career HR rate | no |
| Heriberto Hernández | MIA | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.123 | 1.29x | −park factor, +recent barrel rate | no |
| Jac Caglianone | KC | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.122 | 1.30x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Brandon Nimmo | TEX | T3 · Solid | 0.153 | 0.098 | 1.56x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Brett Baty | NYM | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.106 | 1.35x | +SP career HR rate, +park factor | no |
| Austin Riley | ATL | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.105 | 1.33x | +career barrel rate, −park factor | no |
| Trevor Larnach | MIN | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.101 | 1.39x | +career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate | no |
| Daniel Schneemann | CLE | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.099 | 1.41x | +career barrel rate, +SP career barrels allowed | not yet graded |
Section that night: 0 home runs against 1.58 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
SLEEPERS
Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.089 | 1.57x | +career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate | no |
| Alex Bregman | CHC | T4 · The Field | 0.134 | 0.085 | 1.58x | +park factor, +pull tendency | HOME RUN |
| Cam Smith | HOU | T4 · The Field | 0.124 | 0.089 | 1.38x | +career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate | not yet graded |
| Logan O'Hoppe | LAA | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.071 | 1.64x | +career barrel rate, +season barrel rate | no |
| Lars Nootbaar | STL | T5 · Longshot | 0.081 | 0.048 | 1.69x | −park factor, +recent barrel rate | HOME RUN |
Section that night: 2 home runs against 0.29 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
AROUND SLATE
One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz | CIN | T2 · Power Bat | 0.191 | 0.121 | 1.59x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Kyle Tucker | LAD | T3 · Solid | 0.176 | 0.091 | 1.94x | +park factor, +pull tendency | no |
| Mike Yastrzemski | ATL | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.116 | 1.38x | −park factor, +season hard-hit rate | not yet graded |
| Jonathan Aranda | TB | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.140 | 1.14x | +career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Garrett Mitchell | MIL | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.123 | 1.30x | +recent barrel rate, −SP career HR rate | no |
| Jac Caglianone | KC | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.122 | 1.30x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Bryce Eldridge | SF | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.132 | 1.21x | −park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Brandon Nimmo | TEX | T3 · Solid | 0.153 | 0.098 | 1.56x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Brett Baty | NYM | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.106 | 1.35x | +SP career HR rate, +park factor | no |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.089 | 1.57x | +career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate | no |
| Daniel Schneemann | CLE | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.099 | 1.41x | +career barrel rate, +SP career barrels allowed | not yet graded |
| Jasson Domínguez | NYY | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.108 | 1.30x | +pull tendency, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Logan O'Hoppe | LAA | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.071 | 1.64x | +career barrel rate, +season barrel rate | no |
| Trea Turner | PHI | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.104 | 1.01x | +lineup slot, −career barrel rate | no |
| Sam Antonacci | CWS | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.087 | 1.20x | +SP career HR rate, +lineup slot | not yet graded |
Section that night: 0 home runs against 1.30 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
FAVORITES
Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | LAD | T1 · Slugger | 0.255 | 0.267 | 0.95x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Ben Rice | NYY | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.245 | 0.98x | +SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.283 | 0.85x | +season hard-hit rate, −park factor | no |
| Juan Soto | NYM | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.267 | 0.90x | +career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate | no |
| Junior Caminero | TB | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.258 | 0.93x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Colson Montgomery | CWS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.277 | 0.87x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | T2 · Power Bat | 0.231 | 0.238 | 0.97x | +career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| Matt Olson | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.191 | 0.200 | 0.96x | −park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Elly De La Cruz | CIN | T2 · Power Bat | 0.191 | 0.121 | 1.59x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | CHC | T2 · Power Bat | 0.191 | 0.158 | 1.21x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
Section that night: 1 home run against 2.31 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.