Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-13

2026-08-13

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

9games
28picks
Byron Buxtontop pick · 24%
Final results
ELEVATED0 of 13 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS0 of 5 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.3.
AROUND SLATE0 of 9 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
FAVORITES1 of 10 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS2 home runs allowed across 3 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 3 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN1 home runs allowed across 2 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 2 — which is not what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

TEX @ LAA10:07 PMAngel Stadiumhitter-friendly park70°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT -0.2% carry
CF2 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity82%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1009 mb
Air density1.186 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Nolan SchanuelLAAT4 · The Field
we say 10% +1.7% over normal 1.20x · ATS
+park factor, −career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
MIL @ LAD10:10 PMUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadiumhitter-friendly park68°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.6% carry
CF3 mph
Temp68°F
Humidity85%
Wind3 mph
Pressure995 mb
Air density1.174 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jake BauersMILT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +4.0% over normal 1.21x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
William ContrerasMILT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.3% over normal 1.49x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Kyle TuckerLADT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.9% over normal 1.45x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Andrew VaughnMILT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.4% over normal 1.57x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Shohei OhtaniLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.9% over normal 1.04x · FAVORITES
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Roki Sasaki
lineup expected to homer 1.02 times vs 0.84 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
0 HR allowed
PIT @ MIA1:10 PMloanDepot parkpitcher-friendly park86°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.8% carry
CF3 mph
Temp86°F
Humidity79%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Air density1.155 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryan ReynoldsPITT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +6.7% over normal 1.57x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Jakob MarseeMIAT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +2.7% over normal 1.43x · SLEEPERS
+pull tendency, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Brandon LowePITT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +1.3% over normal 1.07x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +park factor
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CLE @ DET1:10 PMComerica Parkpitcher-friendly park78°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.3% carry
CF7 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity82%
Wind7 mph
Pressure993 mb
Air density1.145 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

José RamírezCLET3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.1% over normal 1.28x · ELEVATED · ATS
−park factor, +career hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jo AdellCLET2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +1.9% over normal 1.11x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Parker Messick
lineup expected to homer 0.89 times vs 1.12 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
1 HR allowed
CIN @ CWS1:10 PMRate Fieldneutral park75°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +0.0% carry
CF6 mph
Temp75°F
Humidity93%
Wind6 mph
Pressure991 mb
Air density1.153 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Randal GrichukCWST3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.5% over normal 1.47x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Edgar QueroCWST4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.1% over normal 1.65x · SLEEPERS
+SP strikeout rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Colson MontgomeryCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +-4.0% over normal 0.83x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
SEA @ NYY1:35 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park87°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.6% carry
CF10 mph
Temp87°F
Humidity41%
Wind10 mph
Pressure1011 mb
Air density1.152 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Ryan McMahonNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +6.2% over normal 1.51x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.1% over normal 1.00x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Max Fried
lineup expected to homer 0.94 times vs 1.12 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
BOS @ TOR3:07 PMRogers Centreneutral park77°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +0.8% carry
CF6 mph
Temp77°F
Humidity51%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1004 mb
Air density1.167 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Willson ContrerasBOST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +4.2% over normal 1.21x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Wilyer AbreuBOST2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.2% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED
+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Connor WongBOST5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.8% over normal 1.54x · SLEEPERS
−platoon edge, −lineup slot
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Payton Tolle
lineup expected to homer 0.89 times vs 1.04 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
CHC @ WSH4:05 PMNationals Parkneutral park85°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +0.8% carry
CF4 mph
Temp85°F
Humidity57%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1013 mb
Air density1.155 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Andrés ChaparroWSHT4 · The Field
we say 12% +2.9% over normal 1.30x · ATS
−SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
PHI @ MIN7:30 PMField of Dreams69°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — UNKNOWN carry unknown
Temp69°F
Humidity93%
Wind10 mph
Pressure978 mb
Air density1.152 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Royce LewisMINT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.7% over normal 1.25x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Josh BellMINT3 · Solid
we say 17% +4.1% over normal 1.31x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Trevor LarnachMINT3 · Solid
we say 16% +6.1% over normal 1.62x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Bryson StottPHIT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.1% over normal 1.42x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Luis ArraezPHIT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.5% over normal 1.44x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Byron BuxtonMINT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.8% over normal 0.97x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.8% over normal 1.04x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Bryce HarperPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +1.3% over normal 1.07x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Aaron Nola
lineup expected to homer 1.26 times vs 1.00 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data