Sparrow Data
2026-08-13
The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.
Pass shown: confirmed, morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.
← 2026-08-12 all nights 2026-08-14 →
ELEVATED
Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willson Contreras | BOS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.199 | 1.21x | +SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Jake Bauers | MIL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.227 | 0.188 | 1.21x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Wilyer Abreu | BOS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.146 | 1.29x | +career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Ryan McMahon | NYY | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.121 | 1.51x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.116 | 1.57x | +recent barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| Royce Lewis | MIN | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.146 | 1.25x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Josh Bell | MIN | T3 · Solid | 0.174 | 0.133 | 1.31x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | no |
| William Contreras | MIL | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.107 | 1.49x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | no |
| Trevor Larnach | MIN | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.099 | 1.62x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Kyle Tucker | LAD | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.110 | 1.45x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Randal Grichuk | CWS | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.097 | 1.47x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| José Ramírez | CLE | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.109 | 1.28x | −park factor, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Bryson Stott | PHI | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.099 | 1.42x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
Section that night: 0 home runs against 1.67 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
SLEEPERS
Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Vaughn | MIL | T4 · The Field | 0.123 | 0.079 | 1.57x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Edgar Quero | CWS | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.064 | 1.65x | +SP strikeout rate, +park factor | no |
| Jakob Marsee | MIA | T5 · Longshot | 0.089 | 0.062 | 1.43x | +pull tendency, +park factor | no |
| Connor Wong | BOS | T5 · Longshot | 0.081 | 0.053 | 1.54x | −platoon edge, −lineup slot | no |
| Luis Arraez | PHI | T5 · Longshot | 0.080 | 0.056 | 1.44x | +park factor, −recent hard-hit rate | no |
Section that night: 0 home runs against 0.31 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
AROUND SLATE
One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willson Contreras | BOS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.199 | 1.21x | +SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Ryan McMahon | NYY | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.121 | 1.51x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.116 | 1.57x | +recent barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| William Contreras | MIL | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.107 | 1.49x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | no |
| Trevor Larnach | MIN | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.099 | 1.62x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Randal Grichuk | CWS | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.097 | 1.47x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| José Ramírez | CLE | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.109 | 1.28x | −park factor, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Andrés Chaparro | WSH | T4 · The Field | 0.124 | 0.095 | 1.30x | −SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Nolan Schanuel | LAA | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.087 | 1.20x | +park factor, −career hard-hit rate | no |
Section that night: 0 home runs against 1.03 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
FAVORITES
Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | MIN | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.249 | 0.97x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Ben Rice | NYY | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.240 | 1.00x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Willson Contreras | BOS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.199 | 1.21x | +SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.233 | 1.04x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAD | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.232 | 1.04x | +park factor, −SP career HR rate | no |
| Jake Bauers | MIL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.227 | 0.188 | 1.21x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Brandon Lowe | PIT | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.198 | 1.07x | +SP strikeout rate, +park factor | no |
| Bryce Harper | PHI | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.190 | 1.07x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Colson Montgomery | CWS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.191 | 0.231 | 0.83x | +SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Jo Adell | CLE | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.169 | 1.11x | +SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate | no |
Section that night: 1 home run against 2.13 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
MOUND SUPPRESS
The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Fried | T1 · Slugger | 0.941 | 1.119 | 0.84x | strong suppression spot | 1 HR allowed | |
| Payton Tolle | T1 · Slugger | 0.890 | 1.044 | 0.85x | strong suppression spot | 0 HR allowed | |
| Parker Messick | T1 · Slugger | 0.888 | 1.117 | 0.80x | elite suppression spot | 1 HR allowed |
Section that night: 2 home runs against 3.28 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
MOUND VULN
The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | T1 · Slugger | 1.260 | 1.000 | 1.26x | vulnerable spot — hitters' night | 1 HR allowed | |
| Roki Sasaki | T1 · Slugger | 1.024 | 0.840 | 1.22x | vulnerable spot — hitters' night | 0 HR allowed |
Section that night: 1 home run against 1.84 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.