Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-09-07

2026-09-07

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

11games
27picks
Kyle Schwarbertop pick · 25%
Final results
ELEVATED1 of 9 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
SLEEPERS0 of 6 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.5.
AROUND SLATE1 of 11 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
FAVORITES4 of 10 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS2 home runs allowed across 3 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 3 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN1 home runs allowed across 1 start. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

TOR @ ATH10:05 PMSutter Health Parkhitter-friendly park63°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -2.6% carry
CF2 mph
Temp63°F
Humidity45%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.211 kg/m³

Open-air park.

10pm72°33% rh2mph0% rain
11pm68°38% rh2mph0% rain
12am64°53% rh3mph0% rain
1am61°60% rh1mph0% rain
2am59°58% rh2mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +2.6% over normal 1.42x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
ATL @ PHI1:05 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park80°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.6% carry
CF5 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity37%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1019 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.179 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm80°42% rh6mph0% rain
2pm80°39% rh8mph0% rain
3pm80°34% rh6mph0% rain
4pm80°33% rh5mph0% rain
5pm80°37% rh5mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.7% over normal 1.36x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
J.T. RealmutoPHIT4 · The Field
we say 13% +3.6% over normal 1.36x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +0.8% over normal 1.03x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-1.1% over normal 0.95x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Bryce HarperPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +1.6% over normal 1.09x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
NYM @ MIA1:10 PMloanDepot parkpitcher-friendly park86°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.9% carry
CF6 mph
Temp86°F
Humidity74%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1015 mb
Rain chance16%
Air density1.151 kg/m³

Roof CLOSED — the forecast below does not reach the field.

1pm85°74% rh6mph26% rain
2pm87°77% rh10mph34% rain
3pm85°78% rh9mph29% rain
4pm86°76% rh7mph27% rain
5pm86°74% rh6mph16% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle StowersMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +5.1% over normal 1.33x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Brett BatyNYMT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.9% over normal 1.59x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jakob MarseeMIAT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.2% over normal 1.56x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Juan SotoNYMT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-2.9% over normal 0.87x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, −SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
LAA @ BOS1:35 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park82°F, wind 12 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +2.7% carry
CF12 mph
Temp82°F
Humidity25%
Wind12 mph
Pressure1016 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.173 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm80°33% rh9mph0% rain
2pm80°37% rh11mph0% rain
3pm81°32% rh9mph0% rain
4pm82°28% rh11mph0% rain
5pm82°25% rh12mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Roman AnthonyBOST3 · Solid
we say 14% +6.4% over normal 1.81x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, +season barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Trevor StoryBOST4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.7% over normal 1.43x · SLEEPERS
+career barrel rate, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
CLE @ BAL1:35 PMOriole Park at Camden Yardshitter-friendly park82°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.5% carry
CF5 mph
Temp82°F
Humidity29%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1019 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.175 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm81°47% rh4mph0% rain
2pm82°41% rh5mph0% rain
3pm82°33% rh3mph0% rain
4pm83°31% rh6mph0% rain
5pm82°29% rh5mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

José RamírezCLET3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.6% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
CHC @ MIL2:10 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park73°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.0% carry
CF8 mph
Temp73°F
Humidity59%
Wind8 mph
Pressure998 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.167 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

2pm77°46% rh9mph0% rain
3pm78°36% rh10mph0% rain
4pm76°48% rh10mph0% rain
5pm75°52% rh9mph0% rain
6pm73°59% rh8mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Garrett MitchellMILT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.2% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED · ATS
−recent fly-ball rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Andrew VaughnMILT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.4% over normal 1.41x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Jake BauersMILT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +0.8% over normal 1.04x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
AZ @ KC2:10 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park94°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +2.9% carry
CF10 mph
Temp94°F
Humidity40%
Wind10 mph
Pressure983 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.104 kg/m³

Open-air park.

2pm92°46% rh10mph0% rain
3pm93°44% rh10mph0% rain
4pm94°41% rh9mph0% rain
5pm95°41% rh10mph0% rain
6pm94°40% rh10mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Vinnie PasquantinoKCT3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.0% over normal 1.16x · ATS
−park factor, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Derek Law
lineup expected to homer 0.94 times vs 1.09 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
MIN @ DET3:10 PMComerica Parkpitcher-friendly park75°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.5% carry
CF6 mph
Temp75°F
Humidity48%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1000 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.167 kg/m³

Open-air park.

3pm78°51% rh8mph0% rain
4pm78°45% rh8mph0% rain
5pm78°44% rh8mph0% rain
6pm77°44% rh7mph0% rain
7pm75°48% rh6mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Colt KeithDETT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +2.5% over normal 1.39x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−park factor, −recent fly-ball rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
WSH @ SD5:10 PMPetco Parkneutral park84°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +0.2% carry
CF8 mph
Temp84°F
Humidity54%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density1.157 kg/m³

Open-air park.

5pm90°46% rh14mph2% rain
6pm89°45% rh13mph3% rain
7pm87°48% rh7mph3% rain
8pm86°50% rh5mph2% rain
9pm84°54% rh8mph2% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +7.6% over normal 1.56x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Nick Pivetta
lineup expected to homer 0.94 times vs 1.19 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
1 HR allowed
STL @ SF8:10 PMOracle Parkpitcher-friendly park62°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.1% carry
CF4 mph
Temp62°F
Humidity54%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.211 kg/m³

Open-air park.

8pm66°57% rh6mph0% rain
9pm64°62% rh2mph0% rain
10pm63°58% rh4mph0% rain
11pm62°58% rh5mph0% rain
12am65°52% rh4mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Nolan GormanSTLT4 · The Field
we say 13% +2.4% over normal 1.21x · ATS
+career barrel rate, −park factor
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Logan Webb
lineup expected to homer 1.00 times vs 1.15 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
CIN @ LAD9:10 PMUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadiumhitter-friendly park73°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.6% carry
CF4 mph
Temp73°F
Humidity58%
Wind4 mph
Pressure993 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.162 kg/m³

Open-air park.

9pm75°63% rh3mph2% rain
10pm75°59% rh1mph1% rain
11pm75°53% rh0mph1% rain
12am77°42% rh3mph1% rain
1am76°46% rh4mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Teoscar HernándezLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +6.6% over normal 1.53x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Will SmithLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +6.4% over normal 1.54x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +SP fly balls allowed
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Kyle TuckerLADT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.5% over normal 1.47x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Dane MyersCINT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.9% over normal 1.53x · ELEVATED
+park factor, −pull tendency
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Eugenio SuárezCINT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +2.3% over normal 1.13x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Sal StewartCINT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-0.4% over normal 0.98x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Elly De La CruzCINT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +2.4% over normal 1.14x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Chase Burns
lineup expected to homer 0.93 times vs 0.72 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data