Sparrow Data
2026-07-16
The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.
Pass shown: confirmed — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.
← 2026-07-12 all nights 2026-07-17 →
ELEVATED
Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor | NYM | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.150 | 1.22x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Brett Baty | NYM | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.112 | 1.28x | +park factor, −lineup slot | HOME RUN |
| Bryson Stott | PHI | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.105 | 1.33x | +park factor, +pull tendency | no |
Section that night: 1 home run against 0.37 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
AROUND SLATE
One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryson Stott | PHI | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.105 | 1.33x | +park factor, +pull tendency | no |
Section that night: 0 home runs against 0.11 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
FAVORITES
Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | T1 · Slugger | 0.291 | 0.278 | 1.05x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Juan Soto | NYM | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.254 | 0.95x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Bryce Harper | PHI | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.203 | 0.92x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Francisco Lindor | NYM | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.150 | 1.22x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Francisco Alvarez | NYM | T3 · Solid | 0.163 | 0.156 | 1.05x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| Brandon Marsh | PHI | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.156 | 1.02x | +park factor, −SP strikeout rate | no |
| Brett Baty | NYM | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.112 | 1.28x | +park factor, −lineup slot | HOME RUN |
| Bryson Stott | PHI | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.105 | 1.33x | +park factor, +pull tendency | no |
| Carson Benge | NYM | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.114 | 1.23x | +park factor, −recent hard-hit rate | no |
| A.J. Ewing | NYM | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.129 | 1.09x | +park factor, +lineup slot | no |
Section that night: 2 home runs against 1.66 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
MOUND SUPPRESS
The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | T1 · Slugger | 1.390 | 1.279 | 1.09x | essentially neutral | 2 HR allowed | |
| Christian Scott | T1 · Slugger | 1.312 | 1.246 | 1.05x | essentially neutral | 1 HR allowed |
Section that night: 3 home runs against 2.52 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.