Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-07-09

2026-07-09

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

Pass shown: confirmed — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.

all nights 2026-07-10 →

ELEVATED

Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Jake Burger	TEX	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.151	1.21x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Jac Caglianone	KC	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.130	1.40x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Kyle Manzardo	CLE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.148	1.24x	+SP strikeout rate, +SP career HR rate	no
Tyler O'Neill	BAL	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.139	1.26x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	HOME RUN
Wilyer Abreu	BOS	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.117	1.36x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Elly De La Cruz	CIN	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.120	1.33x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Bryce Eldridge	SF	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.121	1.32x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	HOME RUN
Austin Riley	ATL	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.113	1.35x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	no
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.094	1.52x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
Mike Yastrzemski	ATL	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.109	1.28x	+recent hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate	HOME RUN
Bryson Stott	PHI	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.105	1.33x	+park factor, +pull tendency	no
Daniel Schneemann	CLE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.100	1.40x	+career barrel rate, −lineup slot	no
Brett Baty	NYM	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.105	1.33x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
Trevor Larnach	MIN	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.100	1.34x	+career barrel rate, −SP strikeout rate	no
Brandon Nimmo	TEX	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.091	1.35x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN

Section that night: 4 home runs against 1.74 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

SLEEPERS

Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Anthony Seigler	BOS	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.076	1.77x	+SP strikeout rate, +park factor	no
Patrick Bailey	CLE	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.071	1.66x	+season barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate	HOME RUN
Logan O'Hoppe	LAA	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.071	1.47x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Connor Wong	BOS	T5 · Longshot	0.089	0.045	1.97x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
Lars Nootbaar	STL	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.048	1.69x	−park factor, −SP strikeout rate	no

Section that night: 1 home run against 0.31 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

AROUND SLATE

One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Kyle Stowers	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.153	1.20x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Jac Caglianone	KC	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.130	1.40x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Tyler O'Neill	BAL	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.139	1.26x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	HOME RUN
Elly De La Cruz	CIN	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.120	1.33x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Bryce Eldridge	SF	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.121	1.32x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	HOME RUN
Austin Riley	ATL	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.113	1.35x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	no
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.094	1.52x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
Anthony Seigler	BOS	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.076	1.77x	+SP strikeout rate, +park factor	no
Patrick Bailey	CLE	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.071	1.66x	+season barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate	HOME RUN
Logan O'Hoppe	LAA	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.071	1.47x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Matt Vierling	DET	T5 · Longshot	0.091	0.082	1.12x	+platoon edge, +lineup slot	no
Lars Nootbaar	STL	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.048	1.69x	−park factor, −SP strikeout rate	no
Nick Fortes	TB	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.063	1.28x	+pull tendency, −career barrel rate	no

Section that night: 3 home runs against 1.28 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

FAVORITES

Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Kyle Schwarber	PHI	T1 · Slugger	0.291	0.289	1.01x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
Junior Caminero	TB	T2 · Power Bat	0.237	0.262	0.90x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Juan Soto	NYM	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.259	0.87x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Colson Montgomery	CWS	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.277	0.82x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
Matt Olson	ATL	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.194	1.09x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
Shea Langeliers	ATH	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.226	0.93x	+SP strikeout rate, −SP career HR rate	no
Cal Raleigh	SEA	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.211	0.96x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no
Bryce Harper	PHI	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.209	0.97x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Manny Machado	SD	T2 · Power Bat	0.201	0.173	1.16x	+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Hunter Goodman	COL	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.237	0.81x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no

Section that night: 4 home runs against 2.34 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data