Sparrow Data
2026-07-10
The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.
Pass shown: confirmed — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.
← 2026-07-09 all nights 2026-07-11 →
ELEVATED
Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz | CIN | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.120 | 1.69x | +recent hard-hit rate, +park factor | HOME RUN |
| Tyler O'Neill | BAL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.150 | 1.25x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | not yet graded |
| Teoscar Hernández | LAD | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.141 | 1.30x | +career barrel rate, +park factor | no |
| Kyle Stowers | MIA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.151 | 1.21x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Jac Caglianone | KC | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.122 | 1.49x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| Kyle Tucker | LAD | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.090 | 1.77x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Isaac Paredes | HOU | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.124 | 1.28x | +SP strikeout rate, +season fly-ball rate | no |
| Mike Yastrzemski | ATL | T3 · Solid | 0.153 | 0.116 | 1.32x | −park factor, −SP career HR rate | no |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | T3 · Solid | 0.153 | 0.094 | 1.62x | +career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | T3 · Solid | 0.153 | 0.118 | 1.29x | +recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate | no |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.108 | 1.32x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Austin Riley | ATL | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.104 | 1.34x | +career barrel rate, −park factor | no |
| Trevor Larnach | MIN | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.100 | 1.40x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Josh Lowe | LAA | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.106 | 1.32x | +SP career barrels allowed, −season hard-hit rate | no |
| Adley Rutschman | BAL | T4 · The Field | 0.134 | 0.102 | 1.32x | +park factor, −SP career HR rate | no |
Section that night: 2 home runs against 1.60 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
SLEEPERS
Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan O'Hoppe | LAA | T4 · The Field | 0.134 | 0.071 | 1.90x | +career barrel rate, +SP career barrels allowed | not yet graded |
| Cam Smith | HOU | T4 · The Field | 0.134 | 0.089 | 1.50x | +career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Kyle Karros | COL | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.076 | 1.55x | −park factor, +recent barrel rate | no |
| Joshua Kuroda-Grauer | ATH | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.083 | 1.25x | +lineup slot, +park factor | no |
| Isaac Collins | KC | T5 · Longshot | 0.089 | 0.070 | 1.26x | +park factor, −career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
Section that night: 1 home run against 0.32 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
AROUND SLATE
One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz | CIN | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.120 | 1.69x | +recent hard-hit rate, +park factor | HOME RUN |
| Kyle Stowers | MIA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.151 | 1.21x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Jac Caglianone | KC | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.122 | 1.49x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| Kyle Tucker | LAD | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.090 | 1.77x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Jonathan Aranda | TB | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.139 | 1.14x | +career hard-hit rate, +lineup slot | no |
| Mike Yastrzemski | ATL | T3 · Solid | 0.153 | 0.116 | 1.32x | −park factor, −SP career HR rate | no |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | T3 · Solid | 0.153 | 0.094 | 1.62x | +career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | T3 · Solid | 0.153 | 0.118 | 1.29x | +recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate | no |
| Logan O'Hoppe | LAA | T4 · The Field | 0.134 | 0.071 | 1.90x | +career barrel rate, +SP career barrels allowed | not yet graded |
| Brett Baty | NYM | T4 · The Field | 0.134 | 0.104 | 1.29x | +career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| Jasson Domínguez | NYY | T4 · The Field | 0.134 | 0.107 | 1.26x | +career hard-hit rate, +pull tendency | HOME RUN |
| Cam Smith | HOU | T4 · The Field | 0.134 | 0.089 | 1.50x | +career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Kyle Karros | COL | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.076 | 1.55x | −park factor, +recent barrel rate | no |
| Kevin McGonigle | DET | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.086 | 1.21x | −park factor, +lineup slot | HOME RUN |
| Joshua Kuroda-Grauer | ATH | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.083 | 1.25x | +lineup slot, +park factor | no |
Section that night: 5 home runs against 1.50 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
FAVORITES
Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | LAD | T1 · Slugger | 0.291 | 0.267 | 1.09x | +park factor, +SP strikeout rate | HOME RUN |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | T1 · Slugger | 0.255 | 0.283 | 0.90x | −park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Colson Montgomery | CWS | T1 · Slugger | 0.255 | 0.277 | 0.92x | +SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.238 | 1.01x | +SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| Junior Caminero | TB | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.262 | 0.92x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| Juan Soto | NYM | T2 · Power Bat | 0.227 | 0.263 | 0.86x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Christian Walker | HOU | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.198 | 1.06x | +SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Ben Rice | NYY | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.243 | 0.87x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| Nick Kurtz | ATH | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.219 | 0.96x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate | not yet graded |
| Cal Raleigh | SEA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.211 | 0.96x | +SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
Section that night: 4 home runs against 2.24 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.