Sparrow Data

Pick history — Fernando Tatis Jr.

Fernando Tatis Jr.

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 59 games across 59 nights, from 108 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 49 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 9.66 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

27%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-09	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.094	1.52x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-10	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.094	1.62x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-11	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.089	1.57x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-07-12	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.089	1.61x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-17	SLEEPERS	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.089	1.60x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	no
2026-07-18	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.089	1.61x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	HOME RUN
2026-07-19	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.094	1.51x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	HOME RUN
2026-07-20	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.100	1.52x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-21	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.100	1.42x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-22	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.106	1.51x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-23	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.106	1.33x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-07-24	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.106	1.51x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	no
2026-07-25	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.100	1.40x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	no
2026-07-26	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.100	1.42x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	no
2026-07-28	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.101	1.58x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-07-29	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.101	1.39x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-30	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.101	1.58x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-07-31	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.178	0.101	1.77x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-01	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.100	1.43x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-08-02	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.100	1.23x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	not yet graded
2026-08-04	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.101	1.42x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-05	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.101	1.42x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-06	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.106	1.50x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-07	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.106	1.44x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-08	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.111	1.44x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-08-09	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.111	1.44x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-10	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.117	1.37x	+career barrel rate, −SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-11	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.117	1.37x	+career barrel rate, −SP strikeout rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-12	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.122	1.30x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	not yet graded
2026-08-15	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.129	1.11x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-17	AROUND SLATE, ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.129	1.24x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-18	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.129	1.57x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-19	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.225	0.135	1.68x	+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-22	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.135	1.35x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-23	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.135	1.56x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-24	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.141	1.29x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-28	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.136	1.34x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-29	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.135	1.41x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-30	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.135	1.18x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-31	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.135	1.35x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-01	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.178	0.135	1.32x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-02	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.140	1.34x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-05	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.135	1.36x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-06	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.135	1.36x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-07	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.135	1.56x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-08	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.231	0.135	1.71x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-09	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.135	1.39x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-11	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.130	1.23x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-12	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.130	1.41x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-14	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.130	1.86x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-15	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.135	1.50x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-16	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.140	1.50x	+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-09-17	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.140	1.62x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-18	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.140	1.34x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-19	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.140	1.34x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-22	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.147	1.54x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-09-24	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.145	1.45x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-09-25	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.144	1.26x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-26	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.144	1.41x	+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate	no grade — game not played

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data