Sparrow Data
2026-08-10
The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.
Pass shown: confirmed, morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.
← 2026-08-09 all nights 2026-08-11 →
ELEVATED
Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willson Contreras | BOS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.237 | 0.193 | 1.23x | +career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Wilyer Abreu | BOS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.139 | 1.46x | +career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Tyler O'Neill | BAL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.118 | 1.55x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Jac Caglianone | KC | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.140 | 1.31x | +career barrel rate, +park factor | HOME RUN |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | KC | T3 · Solid | 0.178 | 0.122 | 1.46x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.117 | 1.37x | +career barrel rate, −SP strikeout rate | no |
| Jared Young | NYM | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.106 | 1.51x | +park factor, +pull tendency | no |
| Brett Baty | NYM | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.113 | 1.41x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| Austin Riley | ATL | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.107 | 1.34x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Kyle Tucker | LAD | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.110 | 1.29x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | not yet graded |
Section that night: 2 home runs against 1.15 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
SLEEPERS
Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Edman | LAD | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.082 | 1.74x | +park factor, +pull tendency | no |
| Kyle Karros | COL | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.074 | 1.41x | +park factor, +season barrel rate | no |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | AZ | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.064 | 1.63x | +season barrel rate, +season HR pace | no |
| Connor Wong | BOS | T5 · Longshot | 0.081 | 0.053 | 1.52x | −platoon edge, −lineup slot | no |
| Nick Sogard | BOS | T5 · Longshot | 0.080 | 0.049 | 1.63x | −season hard-hit rate, +lineup slot | no |
Section that night: 0 home runs against 0.32 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
AROUND SLATE
One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu | BOS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.139 | 1.46x | +career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Tyler O'Neill | BAL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.118 | 1.55x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.117 | 1.37x | +career barrel rate, −SP strikeout rate | no |
| Jonathan Aranda | TB | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.137 | 1.16x | +park factor, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Jared Young | NYM | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.106 | 1.51x | +park factor, +pull tendency | no |
| Bryce Eldridge | SF | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.132 | 1.21x | −park factor, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Brandon Nimmo | TEX | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.114 | 1.25x | +park factor, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Tommy Edman | LAD | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.082 | 1.74x | +park factor, +pull tendency | no |
| Jimmy Crooks | STL | T4 · The Field | 0.121 | 0.097 | 1.25x | −park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | AZ | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.064 | 1.63x | +season barrel rate, +season HR pace | no |
Section that night: 0 home runs against 1.11 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
FAVORITES
Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.243 | 0.99x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAD | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.244 | 0.99x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Willson Contreras | BOS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.237 | 0.193 | 1.23x | +career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Pete Alonso | BAL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.200 | 1.05x | +career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.233 | 0.90x | −park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Hunter Goodman | COL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.226 | 0.93x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Corey Seager | TEX | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.183 | 1.11x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Junior Caminero | TB | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.244 | 0.83x | +career barrel rate, −SP exit velo allowed | HOME RUN |
| Wilyer Abreu | BOS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.139 | 1.46x | +career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Drake Baldwin | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.180 | 1.04x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
Section that night: 1 home run against 2.08 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
MOUND SUPPRESS
The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blade Tidwell | T1 · Slugger | 0.988 | 1.208 | 0.82x | strong suppression spot | 1 HR allowed | |
| Michael Soroka | T1 · Slugger | 0.901 | 1.049 | 0.86x | strong suppression spot | 0 HR allowed | |
| Hunter Dobbins | T1 · Slugger | 0.833 | 0.967 | 0.86x | strong suppression spot | 0 HR allowed |
Section that night: 1 home run against 3.22 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
MOUND VULN
The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Taillon | T1 · Slugger | 1.115 | 0.959 | 1.16x | vulnerable spot — hitters' night | 0 HR allowed | |
| Tarik Skubal | T1 · Slugger | 0.817 | 0.704 | 1.16x | vulnerable spot — hitters' night | 2 HR allowed |
Section that night: 2 home runs against 1.66 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.