Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-10

2026-08-10

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

10games
27picks
Shohei Ohtanitop pick · 24%
Final results
ELEVATED2 of 9 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
SLEEPERS0 of 5 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.3.
AROUND SLATE0 of 10 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
FAVORITES1 of 10 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS1 home runs allowed across 3 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 3 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN2 home runs allowed across 2 starts. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

KC @ LAD10:10 PMUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadiumhitter-friendly park66°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.1% carry
CF3 mph
Temp66°F
Humidity99%
Wind3 mph
Pressure995 mb
Air density1.177 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jac CaglianoneKCT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.3% over normal 1.31x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +park factor
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Bobby Witt Jr.KCT3 · Solid
we say 18% +5.6% over normal 1.46x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Kyle TuckerLADT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.2% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Tommy EdmanLADT3 · Solid
we say 14% +6.1% over normal 1.74x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Shohei OhtaniLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.3% over normal 0.99x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Tarik Skubal
lineup expected to homer 0.82 times vs 0.70 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
2 HR allowed
BOS @ TOR7:07 PMRogers Centreneutral park70°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +1.1% carry
CF3 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity91%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1003 mb
Air density1.178 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Willson ContrerasBOST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +4.4% over normal 1.23x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Wilyer AbreuBOST2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +6.4% over normal 1.46x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Connor WongBOST5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.8% over normal 1.52x · SLEEPERS
−platoon edge, −lineup slot
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Nick SogardBOST5 · Longshot
we say 8% +3.1% over normal 1.63x · SLEEPERS
−season hard-hit rate, +lineup slot
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jameson Taillon
lineup expected to homer 1.11 times vs 0.96 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
0 HR allowed
NYM @ ATL7:15 PMTruist Parkhitter-friendly park79°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.1% carry
CF2 mph
Temp79°F
Humidity76%
Wind2 mph
Pressure984 mb
Air density1.134 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jared YoungNYMT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.4% over normal 1.51x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Brett BatyNYMT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.6% over normal 1.41x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.6% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.2% over normal 0.99x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
7 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Drake BaldwinATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +0.8% over normal 1.04x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
BAL @ MIN7:40 PMTarget Fieldhitter-friendly park76°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.8% carry
CF3 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity37%
Wind3 mph
Pressure983 mb
Air density1.147 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Tyler O'NeillBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +6.5% over normal 1.55x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Pete AlonsoBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +1.0% over normal 1.05x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
PHI @ STL7:45 PMBusch Stadiumpitcher-friendly park84°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.5% carry
CF8 mph
Temp84°F
Humidity66%
Wind8 mph
Pressure997 mb
Air density1.137 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jimmy CrooksSTLT4 · The Field
we say 12% +2.4% over normal 1.25x · ATS
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Hunter Dobbins
lineup expected to homer 0.83 times vs 0.97 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
TEX @ LAA9:38 PMAngel Stadiumhitter-friendly park69°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.0% carry
CF3 mph
Temp69°F
Humidity90%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1009 mb
Air density1.187 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Brandon NimmoTEXT3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.8% over normal 1.25x · ATS
+park factor, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Corey SeagerTEXT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +1.9% over normal 1.11x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
MIL @ SD9:40 PMPetco Parkneutral park70°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.3% carry
CF3 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity90%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Air density1.189 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.3% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, −SP strikeout rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
TB @ ATH9:40 PMSutter Health Parkhitter-friendly park64°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.2% carry
CF9 mph
Temp64°F
Humidity59%
Wind9 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Air density1.204 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jonathan ArandaTBT3 · Solid
we say 16% +2.2% over normal 1.16x · ATS
+park factor, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-4.1% over normal 0.83x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, −SP exit velo allowed
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
COL @ AZ9:40 PMChase Fieldpitcher-friendly park89°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.5% carry
CF4 mph
Temp89°F
Humidity44%
Wind4 mph
Pressure972 mb
Air density1.101 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle KarrosCOLT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.0% over normal 1.41x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +season barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ryan WaldschmidtAZT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.1% over normal 1.63x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+season barrel rate, +season HR pace
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Hunter GoodmanCOLT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-1.6% over normal 0.93x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Michael Soroka
lineup expected to homer 0.90 times vs 1.05 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
HOU @ SF9:45 PMOracle Parkpitcher-friendly park55°F, wind 11 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.1% carry
CF11 mph
Temp55°F
Humidity100%
Wind11 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Air density1.226 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryce EldridgeSFT3 · Solid
we say 16% +2.8% over normal 1.21x · ATS
−park factor, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-2.2% over normal 0.90x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Blade Tidwell
lineup expected to homer 0.99 times vs 1.21 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data