Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-07-29

2026-07-29

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
32picks
Yordan Alvareztop pick · 29%
Final results
ELEVATED0 of 15 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS0 of 3 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.2.
AROUND SLATE1 of 14 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
FAVORITES0 of 10 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS1 home runs allowed across 2 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 2 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN2 home runs allowed across 2 starts. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

SEA @ LAD10:10 PMUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadiumhitter-friendly park76°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.6% carry
CF8 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity74%
Wind8 mph
Pressure990 mb
Air density1.149 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Cal RaleighSEAT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +4.2% over normal 1.21x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Julio RodríguezSEAT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +4.2% over normal 1.25x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Kyle TuckerLADT3 · Solid
we say 16% +6.2% over normal 1.64x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Shohei OhtaniLADT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +1.1% over normal 1.05x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Dominic CanzoneSEAT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +2.9% over normal 1.16x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
PHI @ MIA12:10 PMloanDepot parkpitcher-friendly park88°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.0% carry
CF9 mph
Temp88°F
Humidity69%
Wind9 mph
Pressure1015 mb
Air density1.148 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle StowersMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +5.0% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
AZ @ PIT12:35 PMPNC Parkpitcher-friendly park73°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.4% carry
CF10 mph
Temp73°F
Humidity74%
Wind10 mph
Pressure983 mb
Air density1.149 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Marcell OzunaPITT3 · Solid
we say 15% +2.4% over normal 1.19x · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Esmerlyn ValdezPITT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-4.1% over normal 0.85x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
7 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jared Jones
lineup expected to homer 0.95 times vs 1.13 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
TOR @ WSH1:05 PMNationals Parkneutral park83°F, wind 11 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +1.4% carry
CF11 mph
Temp83°F
Humidity56%
Wind11 mph
Pressure1005 mb
Air density1.151 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Davis SchneiderTORT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.6% over normal 1.40x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Yohendrick PiñangoTORT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.3% over normal 1.49x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +lineup slot
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Trey Yesavage
lineup expected to homer 0.94 times vs 1.13 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
ATL @ NYM1:10 PMCiti Fieldneutral park78°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +3.1% carry
CF7 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity74%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1000 mb
Air density1.156 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Ronald Acuña Jr.ATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.6% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.5% over normal 1.52x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jared YoungNYMT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.6% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
BAL @ DET1:10 PMComerica Parkpitcher-friendly park81°F, wind 14 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.9% carry
CF14 mph
Temp81°F
Humidity41%
Wind14 mph
Pressure993 mb
Air density1.145 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Tyler O'NeillBALT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.9% over normal 1.32x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, −SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
MIL @ SF3:45 PMOracle Parkpitcher-friendly park70°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.2% carry
CF9 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity69%
Wind9 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Air density1.190 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryce EldridgeSFT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +5.8% over normal 1.41x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, −park factor
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Shane Drohan
lineup expected to homer 0.80 times vs 0.96 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
not yet graded
COL @ SD4:10 PMPetco Parkneutral park78°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.4% carry
CF6 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity72%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Air density1.168 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.0% over normal 1.39x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Troy JohnstonCOLT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.0% over normal 1.34x · SLEEPERS
−park factor, +SP workload
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Hunter GoodmanCOLT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-2.2% over normal 0.91x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
TEX @ TB6:40 PMTropicana Fieldneutral park84°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.4% carry
CF10 mph
Temp84°F
Humidity81%
Wind10 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Air density1.152 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Brandon NimmoTEXT4 · The Field
we say 13% +3.7% over normal 1.38x · ATS
+recent barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-3.9% over normal 0.84x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CLE @ CIN7:10 PMGreat American Ball Parkhitter-friendly park81°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.4% carry
CF8 mph
Temp81°F
Humidity48%
Wind8 mph
Pressure996 mb
Air density1.147 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Petey HalpinCLET4 · The Field
we say 10% +2.5% over normal 1.32x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −lineup slot
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
José RamírezCLET3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.3% over normal 1.26x · ATS
+park factor, +lineup slot
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Brady Singer
lineup expected to homer 1.10 times vs 0.91 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
KC @ MIN7:40 PMTarget Fieldhitter-friendly park89°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +4.1% carry
CF9 mph
Temp89°F
Humidity50%
Wind9 mph
Pressure984 mb
Air density1.114 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jac CaglianoneKCT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +7.5% over normal 1.58x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Isaac CollinsKCT4 · The Field
we say 10% +2.3% over normal 1.30x · SLEEPERS
−lineup slot, −SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Joe Ryan
lineup expected to homer 1.18 times vs 1.00 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
NYY @ CWS7:40 PMRate Fieldneutral park72°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.0% carry
CF8 mph
Temp72°F
Humidity79%
Wind8 mph
Pressure994 mb
Air density1.163 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Spencer JonesNYYT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.0% over normal 1.27x · ATS
+season hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-3.6% over normal 0.85x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CHC @ STL7:45 PMBusch Stadiumpitcher-friendly park84°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.2% carry
CF8 mph
Temp84°F
Humidity57%
Wind8 mph
Pressure996 mb
Air density1.140 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Blaze JordanSTLT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.9% over normal 1.59x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−park factor, +season barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
HOU @ LAA9:38 PMAngel Stadiumhitter-friendly park83°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.3% carry
CF8 mph
Temp83°F
Humidity47%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1003 mb
Air density1.151 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Yordan AlvarezHOUT1 · Slugger
we say 29% +4.1% over normal 1.16x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP exit velo allowed
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jorge SolerLAAT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.8% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Logan O'HoppeLAAT4 · The Field
we say 12% +6.0% over normal 1.94x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
BOS @ ATH9:40 PMSutter Health Parkhitter-friendly park94°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +6.2% carry
CF10 mph
Temp94°F
Humidity29%
Wind10 mph
Pressure1006 mb
Air density1.134 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Wilyer AbreuBOST3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.0% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Willson ContrerasBOST2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +1.5% over normal 1.07x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data