Sparrow Data
2026-07-29
The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.
Pass shown: confirmed, morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.
← 2026-07-28 all nights 2026-07-30 →
ELEVATED
Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | T1 · Slugger | 0.291 | 0.249 | 1.16x | +park factor, +SP exit velo allowed | no |
| Cal Raleigh | SEA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.199 | 1.21x | +park factor, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| Julio Rodríguez | SEA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.168 | 1.25x | +park factor, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| Jac Caglianone | KC | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.128 | 1.58x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Bryce Eldridge | SF | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.144 | 1.41x | +career barrel rate, −park factor | no |
| Jorge Soler | LAA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.140 | 1.34x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | not yet graded |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.136 | 1.34x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Kyle Stowers | MIA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.133 | 1.37x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Tyler O'Neill | BAL | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.121 | 1.32x | +career barrel rate, −SP strikeout rate | no |
| Austin Riley | ATL | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.105 | 1.52x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Kyle Tucker | LAD | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.097 | 1.64x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Jared Young | NYM | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.124 | 1.29x | +career barrel rate, +park factor | no |
| Davis Schneider | TOR | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.114 | 1.40x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Wilyer Abreu | BOS | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.119 | 1.34x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Yohendrick Piñango | TOR | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.107 | 1.49x | +career hard-hit rate, +lineup slot | no |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.101 | 1.39x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
Section that night: 0 home runs against 2.05 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
SLEEPERS
Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan O'Hoppe | LAA | T4 · The Field | 0.123 | 0.063 | 1.94x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | not yet graded |
| Petey Halpin | CLE | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.080 | 1.32x | +park factor, −lineup slot | no |
| Blaze Jordan | STL | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.066 | 1.59x | −park factor, +season barrel rate | no |
| Isaac Collins | KC | T4 · The Field | 0.100 | 0.077 | 1.30x | −lineup slot, −SP strikeout rate | no |
| Troy Johnston | COL | T5 · Longshot | 0.080 | 0.060 | 1.34x | −park factor, +SP workload | not yet graded |
Section that night: 0 home runs against 0.22 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
AROUND SLATE
One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jac Caglianone | KC | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.128 | 1.58x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Kyle Stowers | MIA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.133 | 1.37x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| José Ramírez | CLE | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.127 | 1.26x | +park factor, +lineup slot | no |
| Tyler O'Neill | BAL | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.121 | 1.32x | +career barrel rate, −SP strikeout rate | no |
| Austin Riley | ATL | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.105 | 1.52x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Kyle Tucker | LAD | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.097 | 1.64x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Wilyer Abreu | BOS | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.119 | 1.34x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Yohendrick Piñango | TOR | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.107 | 1.49x | +career hard-hit rate, +lineup slot | no |
| Marcell Ozuna | PIT | T3 · Solid | 0.153 | 0.128 | 1.19x | −park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Bryce Eldridge | SF | T3 · Solid | 0.153 | 0.144 | 1.06x | −park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.101 | 1.39x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Spencer Jones | NYY | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.111 | 1.27x | +season hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| Brandon Nimmo | TEX | T4 · The Field | 0.134 | 0.097 | 1.38x | +recent barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Logan O'Hoppe | LAA | T4 · The Field | 0.123 | 0.063 | 1.94x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | not yet graded |
| Blaze Jordan | STL | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.066 | 1.59x | −park factor, +season barrel rate | no |
Section that night: 1 home run against 1.58 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
FAVORITES
Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | T1 · Slugger | 0.291 | 0.249 | 1.16x | +park factor, +SP exit velo allowed | no |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAD | T1 · Slugger | 0.255 | 0.244 | 1.05x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Cal Raleigh | SEA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.199 | 1.21x | +park factor, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | PIT | T2 · Power Bat | 0.231 | 0.272 | 0.85x | −park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Willson Contreras | BOS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.196 | 1.07x | +SP strikeout rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Julio Rodríguez | SEA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.168 | 1.25x | +park factor, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| Dominic Canzone | SEA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.182 | 1.16x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Junior Caminero | TB | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.250 | 0.84x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Hunter Goodman | COL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.232 | 0.91x | +career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate | no |
| Ben Rice | NYY | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.246 | 0.85x | +career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate | no |
Section that night: 0 home runs against 2.24 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
MOUND SUPPRESS
The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Jones | T1 · Slugger | 0.949 | 1.125 | 0.84x | strong suppression spot | 1 HR allowed | |
| Trey Yesavage | T1 · Slugger | 0.937 | 1.135 | 0.83x | strong suppression spot | 0 HR allowed | |
| Shane Drohan | T1 · Slugger | 0.802 | 0.961 | 0.83x | strong suppression spot | not yet graded |
Section that night: 1 home run against 2.26 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
MOUND VULN
The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Ryan | T1 · Slugger | 1.179 | 1.005 | 1.17x | vulnerable spot — hitters' night | 1 HR allowed | |
| Brady Singer | T1 · Slugger | 1.098 | 0.911 | 1.20x | vulnerable spot — hitters' night | 1 HR allowed |
Section that night: 2 home runs against 1.92 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.