Sparrow Data
2026-07-23
The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.
Pass shown: confirmed, morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.
← 2026-07-22 all nights 2026-07-24 →
ELEVATED
Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Yastrzemski | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.120 | 1.53x | +recent hard-hit rate, +park factor | no |
| José Ramírez | CLE | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.126 | 1.27x | +career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.106 | 1.33x | +career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate | no |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.108 | 1.30x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Jimmy Crooks | STL | T4 · The Field | 0.123 | 0.092 | 1.34x | −park factor, +season hard-hit rate | not yet graded |
Section that night: 0 home runs against 0.46 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
SLEEPERS
Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Bailey | CLE | T4 · The Field | 0.123 | 0.088 | 1.41x | +SP career HR rate, +park factor | HOME RUN |
| Blaze Jordan | STL | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.073 | 1.44x | −park factor, +season barrel rate | no |
| Lars Nootbaar | STL | T5 · Longshot | 0.092 | 0.055 | 1.66x | −park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Hunter Feduccia | TB | T5 · Longshot | 0.089 | 0.059 | 1.50x | +recent barrel rate, +season barrel rate | no |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | AZ | T5 · Longshot | 0.089 | 0.060 | 1.48x | −park factor, +recent barrel rate | no |
Section that night: 1 home run against 0.33 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
AROUND SLATE
One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Yastrzemski | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.120 | 1.53x | +recent hard-hit rate, +park factor | no |
| Riley Greene | DET | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.156 | 1.17x | −park factor, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.108 | 1.30x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Patrick Bailey | CLE | T4 · The Field | 0.123 | 0.088 | 1.41x | +SP career HR rate, +park factor | HOME RUN |
| Lars Nootbaar | STL | T5 · Longshot | 0.092 | 0.055 | 1.66x | −park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
Section that night: 1 home run against 0.53 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
FAVORITES
Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero | TB | T1 · Slugger | 0.255 | 0.261 | 0.98x | +career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| Kerry Carpenter | DET | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.197 | 1.07x | +SP strikeout rate, −park factor | no |
| Matt Olson | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.199 | 1.02x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Byron Buxton | MIN | T2 · Power Bat | 0.191 | 0.255 | 0.75x | −park factor, −SP strikeout rate | no |
| George Springer | TOR | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.193 | 0.95x | +SP strikeout rate, +SP fly balls allowed | no |
| Nelson Velázquez | STL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.183 | 1.00x | −park factor, +SP strikeout rate | not yet graded |
| Spencer Torkelson | DET | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.168 | 1.09x | +SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Riley Greene | DET | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.156 | 1.17x | −park factor, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| Drake Baldwin | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.178 | 1.03x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| Dillon Dingler | DET | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.170 | 1.07x | +SP strikeout rate, +season hard-hit rate | no |
Section that night: 1 home run against 1.78 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
MOUND SUPPRESS
The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | T1 · Slugger | 0.987 | 1.038 | 0.95x | lean suppression | 0 HR allowed | |
| Gavin Williams | T1 · Slugger | 0.986 | 1.173 | 0.84x | strong suppression spot | 0 HR allowed | |
| Troy Melton | T1 · Slugger | 0.941 | 1.086 | 0.87x | strong suppression spot | 1 HR allowed | |
| Michael McGreevy | T1 · Slugger | 0.912 | 1.009 | 0.90x | lean suppression | 1 HR allowed |
Section that night: 2 home runs against 4.31 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
MOUND VULN
The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taj Bradley | T1 · Slugger | 1.054 | 0.955 | 1.10x | vulnerable spot — hitters' night | 1 HR allowed |
Section that night: 1 home run against 0.95 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.