Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-07-23

2026-07-23

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

5games
20picks
Junior Caminerotop pick · 25%
Final results
ELEVATED0 of 4 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.5.
SLEEPERS1 of 5 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.3.
AROUND SLATE1 of 5 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.5.
FAVORITES1 of 9 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS2 home runs allowed across 4 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 4 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN1 home runs allowed across 1 start. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

SD @ ATL12:15 PMTruist Parkhitter-friendly park83°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.4% carry
CF6 mph
Temp83°F
Humidity78%
Wind6 mph
Pressure982 mb
Air density1.123 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Mike YastrzemskiATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +6.3% over normal 1.53x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.4% over normal 1.33x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +0.4% over normal 1.02x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Drake BaldwinATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +0.5% over normal 1.03x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
MIN @ CLE1:10 PMProgressive Fieldpitcher-friendly park75°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.9% carry
CF6 mph
Temp75°F
Humidity51%
Wind6 mph
Pressure999 mb
Air density1.165 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

José RamírezCLET3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.3% over normal 1.27x · ELEVATED
+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Patrick BaileyCLET4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.6% over normal 1.41x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+SP career HR rate, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Byron BuxtonMINT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +-6.4% over normal 0.75x · FAVORITES
−park factor, −SP strikeout rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Gavin Williams
lineup expected to homer 0.99 times vs 1.17 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
Taj Bradley
lineup expected to homer 1.05 times vs 0.95 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
TB @ TOR3:07 PMRogers Centreneutral park70°F, wind 11 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.9% carry
CF11 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity61%
Wind11 mph
Pressure1011 mb
Air density1.189 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.3% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Hunter FeducciaTBT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +3.0% over normal 1.50x · SLEEPERS
+recent barrel rate, +season barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Junior CamineroTBT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +-0.6% over normal 0.98x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
George SpringerTORT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +-1.0% over normal 0.95x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +SP fly balls allowed
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Shane Bieber
lineup expected to homer 0.99 times vs 1.04 normally · MOUND
lean suppression
0 HR allowed
AZ @ STL5:15 PMBusch Stadiumpitcher-friendly park78°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.1% carry
CF5 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity61%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1003 mb
Air density1.161 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jimmy CrooksSTLT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.1% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Blaze JordanSTLT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.2% over normal 1.44x · SLEEPERS
−park factor, +season barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Lars NootbaarSTLT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +3.7% over normal 1.66x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Ryan WaldschmidtAZT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +2.9% over normal 1.48x · SLEEPERS
−park factor, +recent barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Nelson VelázquezSTLT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +-0.1% over normal 1.00x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +SP strikeout rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Michael McGreevy
lineup expected to homer 0.91 times vs 1.01 normally · MOUND
lean suppression
1 HR allowed
KC @ DET6:40 PMComerica Parkpitcher-friendly park76°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.7% carry
CF8 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity41%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1000 mb
Air density1.167 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Riley GreeneDETT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +2.7% over normal 1.17x · ATS · FAVORITES
−park factor, +SP strikeout rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kerry CarpenterDETT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +1.4% over normal 1.07x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, −park factor
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Spencer TorkelsonDETT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +1.5% over normal 1.09x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Dillon DinglerDETT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +1.2% over normal 1.07x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Troy Melton
lineup expected to homer 0.94 times vs 1.09 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data