Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-27

2026-08-27

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

7games
23picks
Yordan Alvareztop pick · 24%
Final results
ELEVATED2 of 9 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
SLEEPERS1 of 5 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.3.
AROUND SLATE2 of 7 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.8.
FAVORITES1 of 10 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS2 home runs allowed across 4 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 4 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN3 home runs allowed across 1 start. A typical night for those lineups is 1 — which is what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

COL @ WSH1:05 PMNationals Parkneutral park88°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +5.3% carry
CF10 mph
Temp88°F
Humidity56%
Wind10 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Rain chance8%
Air density1.147 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm83°75% rh6mph6% rain
2pm87°70% rh10mph6% rain
3pm88°56% rh11mph13% rain
4pm89°56% rh10mph12% rain
5pm88°56% rh10mph8% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Andrés ChaparroWSHT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +5.2% over normal 1.38x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Connor NorbyCOLT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.2% over normal 1.52x · SLEEPERS
+career barrel rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Jorbit VivasWSHT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.7% over normal 1.51x · SLEEPERS
−season hard-hit rate, −recent hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
BAL @ STL2:15 PMBusch Stadiumpitcher-friendly park84°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.0% carry
CF8 mph
Temp84°F
Humidity39%
Wind8 mph
Pressure999 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.145 kg/m³

Open-air park.

2pm84°48% rh7mph0% rain
3pm85°43% rh8mph0% rain
4pm86°37% rh8mph0% rain
5pm86°38% rh8mph0% rain
6pm84°39% rh8mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Blaze JordanSTLT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.1% over normal 1.63x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−park factor, +season barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Pete AlonsoBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-1.7% over normal 0.93x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +SP strikeout rate
7 home runs in his last 15 games
no
HOU @ NYY7:05 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park71°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.4% carry
CF2 mph
Temp71°F
Humidity92%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1015 mb
Rain chance15%
Air density1.190 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm74°94% rh5mph26% rain
8pm73°94% rh4mph18% rain
9pm72°93% rh2mph20% rain
10pm71°91% rh2mph15% rain
11pm71°92% rh2mph15% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Spencer JonesNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.3% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Austin WellsNYYT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.2% over normal 1.25x · ELEVATED
+park factor, −lineup slot
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Cam SmithHOUT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.6% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Taylor TrammellHOUT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.7% over normal 1.36x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.9% over normal 1.09x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.0% over normal 1.04x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Trent GrishamNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +0.5% over normal 1.03x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Luis García Jr.NYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +-0.8% over normal 0.96x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
KC @ TOR7:07 PMRogers Centreneutral park65°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.1% carry
CF4 mph
Temp65°F
Humidity84%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1005 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.193 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

7pm76°60% rh10mph0% rain
8pm72°66% rh6mph0% rain
9pm69°73% rh6mph0% rain
10pm67°81% rh4mph0% rain
11pm65°84% rh3mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jac CaglianoneKCT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +5.8% over normal 1.40x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Vinnie PasquantinoKCT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.4% over normal 1.32x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.6% over normal 1.52x · SLEEPERS
+career barrel rate, +season barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Spencer Arrighetti
lineup expected to homer 1.16 times vs 1.02 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
3 HR allowed
MIL @ NYM7:10 PMCiti Fieldneutral park70°F, wind 1 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.5% carry
CF1 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity91%
Wind1 mph
Pressure1015 mb
Rain chance12%
Air density1.191 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm74°94% rh2mph23% rain
8pm73°92% rh3mph16% rain
9pm72°88% rh4mph16% rain
10pm71°89% rh3mph17% rain
11pm70°91% rh1mph12% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

William ContrerasMILT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.4% over normal 1.46x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Andrew VaughnMILT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.6% over normal 1.65x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jacob Misiorowski
lineup expected to homer 0.77 times vs 0.87 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
LAD @ ATL7:15 PMTruist Parkhitter-friendly park76°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.0% carry
CF3 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity88%
Wind3 mph
Pressure979 mb
Rain chance4%
Air density1.135 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm81°76% rh3mph14% rain
8pm79°82% rh2mph12% rain
9pm78°79% rh3mph11% rain
10pm76°83% rh4mph9% rain
11pm76°88% rh3mph4% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.7% over normal 1.36x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-1.3% over normal 0.95x · FAVORITES
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Shohei OhtaniLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-2.9% over normal 0.87x · FAVORITES
−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Chris Sale
lineup expected to homer 0.91 times vs 1.08 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
AZ @ SF9:45 PMOracle Parkpitcher-friendly park62°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.8% carry
CF3 mph
Temp62°F
Humidity78%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.211 kg/m³

Open-air park.

9pm66°58% rh5mph2% rain
10pm65°65% rh3mph2% rain
11pm64°71% rh3mph2% rain
12am59°85% rh6mph0% rain
1am58°88% rh6mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Turner HillSFT4 · The Field
we say 10% +0.7% over normal 1.08x · ATS
−park factor, +SP career HR rate
No home runs in his last 6 games
no
Rafael DeversSFT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +-1.9% over normal 0.91x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +SP strikeout rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jose Cabrera
lineup expected to homer 1.00 times vs 1.16 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
Landen Roupp
lineup expected to homer 0.63 times vs 0.79 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data