Sparrow Data

Pick history — Ben Rice

Ben Rice

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 51 games across 51 nights, from 52 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 1 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 11.63 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

20%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-10	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.243	0.87x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-11	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.245	0.98x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-12	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.249	0.84x	−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-17	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.248	1.03x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-18	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.246	0.98x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-19	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.248	0.85x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-07-20	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.231	0.245	0.94x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-07-21	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.245	0.98x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-07-22	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.245	0.98x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-26	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.242	0.87x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-29	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.246	0.85x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-07-30	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.246	0.92x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-31	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.246	0.98x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-01	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.240	0.94x	−SP career HR rate, +SP strikeout rate	not yet graded
2026-08-02	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.240	1.06x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-03	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.240	1.06x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-04	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.240	0.88x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-05	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.239	0.95x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-07	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.240	1.00x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-08	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.239	0.88x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-09	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.245	1.04x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-11	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.246	0.98x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-12	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.240	1.00x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-13	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.240	1.00x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-14	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.240	1.00x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-15	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.239	0.88x	+career hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-16	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.239	0.85x	−SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-18	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.240	1.00x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-19	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.239	1.01x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-20	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.239	0.88x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-21	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.239	1.01x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-22	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.233	0.90x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-25	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.233	1.04x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-26	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.227	1.06x	+park factor, +SP fly balls allowed	HOME RUN
2026-08-27	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.231	1.04x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-29	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.225	1.07x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-09-01	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.225	1.07x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-02	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.224	1.08x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-05	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.230	0.92x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-08	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.225	0.225	1.00x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-09-09	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.286	0.224	1.28x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-09-10	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.224	1.08x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-09-13	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.231	0.98x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-14	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.237	0.95x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-15	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.237	1.07x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-16	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.236	1.02x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-18	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.237	0.85x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-19	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.242	0.87x	−park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-09-22	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.236	1.02x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-09-23	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.235	0.233	1.01x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-24	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.239	1.01x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data