Sparrow Data

Pick history — Kyle Stowers

Kyle Stowers

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 46 games across 46 nights, from 93 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 47 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 8.18 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

20%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-09	AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.153	1.20x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-10	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.151	1.21x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-11	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.151	1.26x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-12	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.150	1.35x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-07-18	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.143	1.31x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-19	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.231	0.134	1.72x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-20	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.134	1.51x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-21	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.134	1.51x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-07-22	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.125	1.68x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-24	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.126	1.79x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-25	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.125	1.81x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-26	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.117	1.74x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-27	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.125	1.30x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-28	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.125	1.62x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-29	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.133	1.37x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-31	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.142	1.35x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-01	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.231	0.149	1.55x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-02	FAVORITES, ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.140	1.50x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-04	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.133	1.44x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-05	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.133	1.37x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-06	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.133	1.37x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-07	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.225	0.133	1.70x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-09	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.133	1.58x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-24	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.139	1.15x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-25	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.138	1.53x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-08-26	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.138	1.36x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-28	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.136	1.67x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-29	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.135	1.30x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-31	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.134	1.80x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-01	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.133	1.37x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	HOME RUN
2026-09-02	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.140	1.30x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	HOME RUN
2026-09-03	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.148	1.27x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-04	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.146	1.65x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-09-05	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.146	1.55x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-07	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.152	1.33x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-08	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.151	1.39x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-09-09	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.151	1.34x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-11	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.150	1.35x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-12	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.149	1.29x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-13	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.147	1.43x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-16	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.144	1.30x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-19	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.142	1.29x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-20	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.141	1.30x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-22	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.140	1.73x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-23	AROUND SLATE, ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.146	1.28x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-24	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.152	1.33x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	not yet graded

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data