Sparrow Data

Pick history — Wilyer Abreu

Wilyer Abreu

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 32 games across 31 nights, from 50 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 18 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 5.59 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

16%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-09	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.117	1.36x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-12	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.117	1.56x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-17	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.117	1.56x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-17	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.117	1.36x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-20	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.129	1.24x	+recent barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-24	AROUND SLATE, ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.122	1.25x	+recent barrel rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-26	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.120	1.33x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-07-27	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.119	1.57x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-28	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.119	1.20x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-29	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.119	1.34x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-30	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.119	1.60x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-31	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.126	1.11x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-02	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.125	1.46x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-06	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.146	1.25x	+career hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-07	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.146	1.25x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-08-10	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.139	1.46x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-13	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.146	1.29x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-14	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.146	1.09x	+career hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-15	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.145	1.26x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-16	AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.151	1.21x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-17	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.151	1.34x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-18	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.145	1.30x	+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-19	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.144	1.27x	+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-22	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.142	1.29x	+SP career HR rate, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-23	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.141	1.13x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-25	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.139	1.31x	+career hard-hit rate, +park factor	no
2026-08-30	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.141	1.13x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-02	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.138	1.32x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-09	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.133	1.41x	+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-11	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.139	1.27x	+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-15	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.136	1.34x	+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-09-24	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.132	1.23x	−SP strikeout rate, +SP career HR rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data