Sparrow Data

Pick history — Trevor Larnach

Trevor Larnach

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 15 games across 15 nights, from 18 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 3 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 1.84 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

15%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-09	ELEVATED	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.100	1.34x	+career barrel rate, −SP strikeout rate	no
2026-07-10	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.100	1.40x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-11	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.101	1.39x	+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-07-17	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.101	1.41x	+recent barrel rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-18	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.100	1.23x	+pull tendency, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-20	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.100	1.42x	+park factor, +lineup slot	no
2026-07-22	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.101	1.39x	+park factor, +lineup slot	HOME RUN
2026-07-25	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.108	1.30x	+SP career HR rate, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-07-26	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.107	1.31x	+career barrel rate, +lineup slot	not yet graded
2026-07-28	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.108	1.48x	+season hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-01	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.108	1.30x	+season hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-07	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.107	1.31x	−SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-08-12	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.099	1.41x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-13	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.099	1.62x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-16	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.100	1.40x	+recent hard-hit rate, +lineup slot	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data