Sparrow Data

Pick history — Byron Buxton

Byron Buxton

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 11 games across 11 nights

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 1.85 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-20	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.262	0.87x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-22	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.253	0.89x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	not yet graded
2026-07-23	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.255	0.75x	−park factor, −SP strikeout rate	no
2026-07-24	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.255	1.00x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-25	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.253	0.95x	+SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-26	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.253	0.95x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-28	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.253	0.95x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	not yet graded
2026-08-13	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.249	0.97x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-15	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.251	0.84x	+career barrel rate, −SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-16	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.251	0.96x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-17	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.251	0.96x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no grade — game not played

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data