Sparrow Data
Pick history — Willi Castro
Willi Castro
Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 4 games across 4 nights, from 5 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 1 of them.
Times picked
4graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night
Home runs
1against 0.52 expected from our own probabilities
Rate
25%of graded picks homered
A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.
| Date | Boards | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | SLEEPERS | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.081 | 1.45x | +pull tendency, +season hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| 2026-07-21 | SLEEPERS | T4 · The Field | 0.134 | 0.088 | 1.53x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | no |
| 2026-07-24 | SLEEPERS | T4 · The Field | 0.123 | 0.089 | 1.39x | −SP career HR rate, +park factor | no |
| 2026-07-25 | SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.088 | 1.62x | +park factor, +pull tendency | no |
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data