Sparrow Data

Pick history — Spencer Jones

Spencer Jones

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 17 games across 16 nights, from 23 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 6 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 2.87 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

13%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-24	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.111	1.65x	+season hard-hit rate, +park factor	not yet graded
2026-07-29	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.111	1.27x	+season hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-02	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.169	1.25x	+season hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-27	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.145	1.29x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-29	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.143	1.28x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-08-30	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.139	1.32x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	not yet graded
2026-09-09	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.152	1.49x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-10	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.150	1.27x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-09-11	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.148	1.23x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-09-12	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.146	1.28x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
2026-09-13	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.145	1.40x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-14	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.143	1.31x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-15	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.141	1.36x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-16	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.151	1.24x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-22	AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.158	1.16x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-22	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.158	1.28x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-23	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.154	1.37x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data