Sparrow Data

Pick history — Pete Crow-Armstrong

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 18 games across 18 nights, from 24 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 6 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 3.77 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

39%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-11	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.158	1.21x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-24	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.145	0.99x	+recent hard-hit rate, −SP strikeout rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-08	AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.164	1.11x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-15	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.169	1.25x	+SP strikeout rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-21	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.188	1.12x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-24	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.193	1.18x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-28	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.193	1.18x	+SP strikeout rate, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-29	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.193	1.09x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-30	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.199	1.06x	+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-03	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.203	0.92x	−SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-13	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.217	0.88x	+season hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-09-16	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.217	0.94x	+recent hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-18	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.223	1.08x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-19	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.225	0.223	1.01x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-20	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.223	1.08x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-22	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.229	0.99x	+SP strikeout rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-23	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.228	0.99x	+recent hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-09-24	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.228	0.93x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data