Sparrow Data
Pick history — Esmerlyn Valdez
Esmerlyn Valdez
Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 14 games across 14 nights
Times picked
13graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night
Home runs
2against 2.97 expected from our own probabilities
Rate
15%of graded picks homered
A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.
| Date | Boards | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.248 | 0.82x | −park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-07-20 | FAVORITES | T1 · Slugger | 0.255 | 0.270 | 0.94x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | HOME RUN |
| 2026-07-21 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.286 | 0.84x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-07-22 | FAVORITES | T1 · Slugger | 0.255 | 0.286 | 0.89x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-07-25 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.227 | 0.268 | 0.85x | −park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-07-26 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.263 | 0.80x | −park factor, +season hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| 2026-07-27 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.231 | 0.277 | 0.83x | −park factor, +SP strikeout rate | not yet graded |
| 2026-07-29 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.231 | 0.272 | 0.85x | −park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-07-30 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.267 | 0.90x | −SP career HR rate, +park factor | no |
| 2026-07-31 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.231 | 0.262 | 0.88x | +park factor, −SP strikeout rate | no |
| 2026-08-01 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.227 | 0.258 | 0.88x | +park factor, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| 2026-08-02 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.237 | 0.253 | 0.94x | +park factor, +SP fly balls allowed | no |
| 2026-08-03 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.249 | 0.85x | +park factor, −career exit velo | no |
| 2026-08-07 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.236 | 0.86x | −park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data