Sparrow Data

Pick history — Nick Gonzales

Nick Gonzales

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 9 games across 9 nights, from 12 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 3 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 0.80 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

11%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-20	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.051	2.31x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-07-21	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.051	1.58x	+park factor, +lineup slot	no
2026-07-22	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.051	1.57x	+park factor, −platoon edge	HOME RUN
2026-08-01	SLEEPERS	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.050	2.09x	+park factor, +lineup slot	no
2026-08-02	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.089	0.050	1.77x	+park factor, −platoon edge	no
2026-08-03	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.050	1.60x	+park factor, −platoon edge	no
2026-08-04	AROUND SLATE, SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.050	1.60x	+park factor, −SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-05	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T5 · Longshot	0.092	0.050	1.83x	+park factor, −SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-08	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.050	1.60x	−park factor, +SP career HR rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data