Sparrow Data

Pick history — Nick Gonzales

Nick Gonzales

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 22 games across 22 nights, from 27 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 5 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 1.87 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-20	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.051	2.31x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-07-21	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.051	1.58x	+park factor, +lineup slot	no
2026-07-22	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.051	1.57x	+park factor, −platoon edge	HOME RUN
2026-08-01	SLEEPERS	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.050	2.09x	+park factor, +lineup slot	no
2026-08-02	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.089	0.050	1.77x	+park factor, −platoon edge	no
2026-08-03	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.050	1.60x	+park factor, −platoon edge	no
2026-08-04	AROUND SLATE, SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.050	1.60x	+park factor, −SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-05	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T5 · Longshot	0.092	0.050	1.83x	+park factor, −SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-08	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.050	1.60x	−park factor, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-21	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.081	0.051	1.59x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-22	AROUND SLATE, SLEEPERS	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.051	2.43x	+park factor, −SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-23	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.051	1.58x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-24	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.092	0.051	1.81x	+lineup slot, +platoon edge	no
2026-08-28	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.051	1.58x	−park factor, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-09-05	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.051	1.57x	−park factor, +lineup slot	no
2026-09-08	SLEEPERS	T4 · The Field	0.100	0.051	1.95x	+park factor, +SP workload	not yet graded
2026-09-10	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.051	2.04x	+SP career HR rate, +park factor	no
2026-09-11	SLEEPERS	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.051	2.05x	+lineup slot, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-09-13	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.051	1.56x	+lineup slot, +pull tendency	no
2026-09-19	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.052	1.55x	−park factor, +SP workload	no
2026-09-23	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.052	1.54x	−park factor, +SP workload	no
2026-09-25	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.052	1.54x	−platoon edge, +lineup slot	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data