Sparrow Data

Pick history — Joc Pederson

Joc Pederson

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 10 games across 10 nights, from 11 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 1 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 1.28 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

33%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-12	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.170	1.24x	+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-20	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.174	1.21x	+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-01	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.192	1.10x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-04	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.191	1.06x	+SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-05	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.189	1.20x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-08-07	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.191	1.06x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-09	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.196	1.08x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-08-12	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.203	1.19x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-14	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.225	0.203	1.11x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	not yet graded
2026-08-16	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.203	1.04x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	not yet graded

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data