Sparrow Data

Pick history — Pete Alonso

Pete Alonso

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 27 games across 27 nights, from 28 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 1 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 5.93 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

41%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-12	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.211	0.96x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-31	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.211	1.07x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-04	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.231	0.207	1.12x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-06	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.201	1.05x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-10	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.200	1.05x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-11	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.200	1.20x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-14	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.200	1.13x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-15	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.200	1.05x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-20	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.215	0.94x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-21	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.215	0.89x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-23	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.231	0.221	1.04x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-26	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.222	0.91x	−park factor, +SP strikeout rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-27	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.228	0.93x	−park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-28	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.228	0.93x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-29	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.222	0.95x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-30	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.217	1.11x	+SP strikeout rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-31	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.217	1.05x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-02	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.217	1.11x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-03	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.211	0.89x	−SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-06	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.215	0.94x	+recent hard-hit rate, −SP strikeout rate	no
2026-09-11	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.222	1.09x	+SP strikeout rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-14	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.228	1.06x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-15	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.222	0.95x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-16	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.226	1.06x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-21	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.223	0.86x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-22	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.228	1.06x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-25	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.233	1.03x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	HOME RUN

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data