Sparrow Data

Pick history — Tyler O'Neill

Tyler O'Neill

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 18 games across 18 nights, from 31 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 13 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 2.28 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

23%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-09	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.139	1.26x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	HOME RUN
2026-07-10	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.150	1.25x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-07-11	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.151	1.24x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-12	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.151	1.21x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-07-26	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.145	1.26x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-29	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.121	1.32x	+career barrel rate, −SP strikeout rate	no
2026-07-31	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.109	1.93x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-08-01	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.109	1.30x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-02	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.109	1.49x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-08-05	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.098	1.63x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-08	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.108	1.74x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-09	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.107	1.65x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-10	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.118	1.55x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-11	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.116	1.61x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-12	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.115	1.83x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-14	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.113	1.43x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-15	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.112	1.45x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-16	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.111	1.59x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	not yet graded

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data