Sparrow Data

Pick history — Alex Bregman

Alex Bregman

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 9 games across 9 nights, from 12 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 3 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 1.24 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

56%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-11	SLEEPERS	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.085	1.58x	+park factor, +pull tendency	HOME RUN
2026-07-12	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.090	1.56x	+park factor, +pull tendency	HOME RUN
2026-08-14	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.124	0.100	1.24x	+recent fly-ball rate, +pull tendency	no
2026-08-21	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.098	1.36x	+recent hard-hit rate, +pull tendency	HOME RUN
2026-08-22	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.104	1.37x	+SP career HR rate, +recent fly-ball rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-23	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.110	1.28x	+recent fly-ball rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-24	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.110	1.30x	+SP strikeout rate, +park factor	no
2026-08-25	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.110	1.28x	+SP strikeout rate, +park factor	no
2026-08-29	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.110	1.27x	+SP strikeout rate, +recent fly-ball rate	HOME RUN

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data