Sparrow Data
Pick history — Alex Bregman
Alex Bregman
Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 3 games across 3 nights, from 4 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 1 of them.
Times picked
3graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night
Home runs
2against 0.40 expected from our own probabilities
Rate
67%of graded picks homered
A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.
| Date | Boards | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | SLEEPERS | T4 · The Field | 0.134 | 0.085 | 1.58x | +park factor, +pull tendency | HOME RUN |
| 2026-07-12 | ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.090 | 1.56x | +park factor, +pull tendency | HOME RUN |
| 2026-08-14 | AROUND SLATE | T4 · The Field | 0.124 | 0.100 | 1.24x | +recent fly-ball rate, +pull tendency | no |
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data