Sparrow Data

Pick history — Braden Montgomery

Braden Montgomery

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 5 games across 5 nights

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 0.35 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-08-01	AROUND SLATE	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.087	0.92x	−SP career HR rate, −career barrel rate	no
2026-08-02	AROUND SLATE	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.086	0.93x	−recent fly-ball rate, −career barrel rate	not yet graded
2026-08-14	AROUND SLATE	T5 · Longshot	0.089	0.089	0.99x	−park factor, −career barrel rate	no
2026-08-18	AROUND SLATE	T5 · Longshot	0.091	0.084	1.08x	−career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-23	AROUND SLATE	T5 · Longshot	0.091	0.093	0.98x	−SP career HR rate, −career barrel rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data