Sparrow Data

Pick history — Michael Conforto

Michael Conforto

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 8 games across 8 nights, from 12 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 4 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 1.18 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

29%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-17	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.117	1.56x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-31	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.117	1.51x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-22	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.123	1.30x	+SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate	not yet graded
2026-09-04	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.126	1.27x	+SP strikeout rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-05	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.126	1.27x	+season hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-14	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.126	1.27x	+season hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-18	AROUND SLATE, ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.124	1.29x	+park factor, +pull tendency	no
2026-09-20	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.178	0.124	1.44x	+park factor, +pull tendency	HOME RUN

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data