Sparrow Data

Pick history — Xavier Edwards

Xavier Edwards

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 4 games across 4 nights

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 0.34 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-08-14	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.089	0.055	1.61x	+park factor, −season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-15	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.092	0.055	1.67x	+park factor, −career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-22	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.055	1.47x	−season hard-hit rate, −career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-28	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.055	1.46x	−season hard-hit rate, −career hard-hit rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data